homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 For my call I guess I'll go with around 2" of snow, preceded by a bit of freezing rain/sleet. Even with the super tight gradient and all that, SREF mean somehow was almost dead on with last week's storm here and the 15z mean has about 2". If mixed precip doesn't pan out and/or deformation zone precip is more robust, may be able to overachieve. Wow really? That'd be around my call. Maybe im too pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 18z NAM shows about 0.40" liquid in Chicago over the next 36 hours, and about 0.55" liquid in the N suburbs. If this were all snow, it would be a decent hit. Dewpoints crash after the front comes through...which should help in evap cooling. Of course, the dry air could also eat into precip totals...but I'm assuming the 18z NAM has already taken this into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4k NAM rocking the Grand Rapids area! Maybe GRR will upgrade to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Wow really? That'd be around my call. Bullish I guess...if 2" can be considered bullish. We'll see. Obviously you should exceed whatever I end up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Wow really? That'd be around my call. Maybe im too pessimistic. Fearing a near miss to the north with the fronto band and a near miss to the south with the main 1-3" band tomorrow. I'd say this is a even tougher forecast than last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Fearing a near miss to the north with the fronto band and a near miss to the south with the main 1-3" band tomorrow. I'd say this is a even tougher forecast than last storm. Yeah we really need that fgen band to get down south. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 11" over Kenosha on the 12z run. See below for 18z run. Looking at the radar it looks like the f-gen band is organizing along and just south of US 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Fearing a near miss to the north with the fronto band and a near miss to the south with the main 1-3" band tomorrow. I'd say this is a even tougher forecast than last storm. that would be very winter 2015/2016 for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 11" over Kenosha on this run. Just 15 miles south, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * Locations... portions of the Niagara Frontier east to Monroe County. * Timing... from early Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday morning... . with the period of heaviest snow expect overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. * Hazards... heavy snow and freezing rain. * Accumulations... snow potentially accumulating 5 to 10 inches. Ice potentially accumulating up to one tenth of an inch. Snowfall rates could reach an inch per hour Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. * Winds... northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Visibilities... as low as a quarter mile at times. * Impacts... heavy snow and some ice accumulations will make travel difficult. The heaviest snow is expected to fall overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... which could make for difficult travel during the Wednesday morning commute. * Forecaster confidence... confidence is highest for significant snow accumulations northwest of a line from Buffalo to Rochester... where precipitation should fall as all snow. Confidence is medium for locations southeast of this line where there is greater uncertainty where the transition line to sleet... freezing rain... and rain will evolve. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Watch means that heavy snow and/or ice accumulations are possible. If you are within the watch area... remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.Weather.Gov/Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 11" over Kenosha on this run. Looking at the radar it looks like the f-gen band is organizing along and just south of US 20. Not sure if you realized but that's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not sure if you realized but that's 12z. No I did not. Fixed. Well we have a comparison on the same page. You got your wish Homedis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not sure if you realized but that's 12z. i was going to say, that lake enhanced defo definitely doesn't deliver, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 No I did not. Fixed. Well we have a comparison on the same page. You got your wish Homedis. Can't tell if that's lake influence in Lake and northern Cook on the 18Z or if it's a defo feature that looks to really peak snowfall totals in Ottawa/Allegan Counties in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Already 35 at UGN. Models may be a tad slow with the lake enhanced push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 34° here now. 15 degree drop in 30 minutes. Models didn't have it this cold until about 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Already 35 at UGN. Models may be a tad slow with the lake enhanced push. naso much worried about 2M temps but WAA at 850 is already ramping up nicely over IA, MO, and W. IL which should be enough to hold the fgen band north of IL..which is probably why hi-res models are so far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Regarding the above, 18z NAM valid now. Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Still 50 out here. Geos, can you get a fan, turn it on, and face it south? Agree with Alek, band should set up nicely just north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 naso much worried about 2M temps but WAA at 850 is already ramping up nicely over IA, MO, and W. IL which should be enough to hold the fgen band north of IL..which is probably why hi-res models are so far north Yeah, what's happening aloft is obviously the main concern...really need a southward trend with the 850 mb setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Tremendous temp range over Iowa even more impressive now. 70 in Clarinda, while 27 in Spencer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Regarding the above, 18z NAM valid now. Oops namFLT_sfc_temp_003.gif is being an hour off on timing really that big of a deal, it's doing fine with 850s upstream in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 RGEM hitting northern IL pretty good. Front is en-route to Northbrook now. Already has cleared Lake Forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 RGEM hitting northern IL pretty good. canadian suite in general has been consistently kind....shame it's such a junk heap model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Front appears to be headed through the Rockford area now. And my updates WWA has a 1-5" wording haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Front just passed through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 canadian suite in general has been consistently kind....shame it's such a junk heap model Looking between it and the HRRR. The RGEM actually has better placement of the band in SD. HRRR is too far north of I-90 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 18z GFS not out far but looking at it for northern IL interests etc, might baby step better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 HUGE improvement in some areas on the 18z GFS, especially Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Sioux Falls is going to get a good plastering in the next couple of hours. RGEM. Let's see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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