snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM/4km NAM playing catch-up to the rest of the guidance. I'd still toss, despite the improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 full disclosure - 2M temps look much colder than that map would suggest EDIT: actually not a bad ice/pl setup for lakeside standards That's good, I think that map is probably the best scenario for my place and Tuanis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Would also toss the NAM, seems to still be having precip issues. Consensus reached for 6" at YYZ in my opinion. Ratios look really good so would not be surprised to see 9-10". Thinking DTX can squeeze out 5-6" as does Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM has really extended the heavy band back west along hw20 through Iowa.... all the way back through Waterloo to Fort Dodge. If this pans out, it will only further sharpen the extreme winter snow gradient from Waterloo to Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Would also toss the NAM, seems to still be having precip issues. Consensus reached for 6" at YYZ in my opinion. Ratios look really good so would not be surprised to see 9-10". Thinking DTX can squeeze out 5-6" as does Geos. If the fgen band does set up over Geos, he'd probably end up with more like 9-10". But we still are not 100% sure where the fgen band will set up. Somewhere in-between ORD and MKE is where I think it will set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 So I am confused, the thread is March 1-2... same storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 pretty impressive, the band tonight is going to destroy a narrow corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Would also toss the NAM, seems to still be having precip issues. Consensus reached for 6" at YYZ in my opinion. Ratios look really good so would not be surprised to see 9-10". Thinking DTX can squeeze out 5-6" as does Geos. Yeah, that was big to get the NAM on board. Now maybe we have a bit of a floor, although I hate getting too cocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 So I am confused, the thread is March 1-2... same storm? It was initially going to be a Tuesday storm, but it has sped up and will be starting today instead. The topic could be adjusted to include Feb 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 pretty impressive, the band tonight is going to destroy a narrow corridor Yeah for sure, it looks to mimic the November 2015 storm intensity-wise. Not sure about placement tho. My gut feeling says Geos and S Wisco will get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah for sure, it looks to mimic the November 2015 storm intensity-wise. Not sure about placement tho. My gut feeling says Geos and S Wisco will get slammed. i actually think the forcing looks a to be a bit stronger than that event, whether it hangs up enough in one area to deliver the huge totals is yet to be seen but it's going to be a high-end band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 i actually think the forcing looks a to be a bit stronger than that event, whether it hangs up enough in one area to deliver the huge totals is yet to be seen but it's going to be a high-end band Oh wow this fgen band is going to be impressive. Im going to be drooling over the radar returns no matter who gets it... basically either UMB WX, Geos, Tuanis, or I will probably get buried tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Out in my neck of the woods, it'll be close. On most of the models I'm less than 10 miles south of the heavy cut off. Just have to wait and see. But I agree, whoever gets it is gonna have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I feel pretty good with 8" for Toronto right now... But won't make a call until 12Z runs are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0Z EURO parallel finally out. Hammers NWOH/SEMI. In other words, very unlikely to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I feel pretty good with 8" for Toronto right now... But won't make a call until 12Z runs are out. RGEM based on the p-type collaboration map looks real nice. I'm guessing AOA 20mm of juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 pretty impressive, the band tonight is going to destroy a narrow corridor It's looking like a lot of the same areas across the southern tier of Wisconsin counties that got a huge snowfall in the Nov. 15th storm are going to catch the brunt of this one as well. In that storm one place in Rock county got 17", with 16" at Monroe and 14" in Beloit. Madison got 4". Madison is going to be close to the intense band this time, but we may be just too far north to catch any really high amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The RGEM continues to place the heavy FGEN band farther south toward Cedar Rapids, but the GEM has been too optimistic with the southward cold push during storms this winter. I definitely favor north of CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 pretty sick late February baroclinic zone, near 60 southern DVN and below freezing along the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is a Zion to West Allis special - looks good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 0Z EURO parallel finally out. Hammers NWOH/SEMI. In other words, very unlikely to verify. Can yoy please post the snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 RGEM based on the p-type collaboration map looks real nice. I'm guessing AOA 20mm of juice. Ugh, wish I were back home for this one. Looks run of the mill for London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Oh wow this fgen band is going to be impressive. Im going to be drooling over the radar returns no matter who gets it... basically either UMB WX, Geos, Tuanis, or I will probably get buried tonight/tomorrow. Bring it. Still feel the core of the band will lift into the first tier of southern WI counties for the longest period. Do think we both might be good for a few quick inches. I still don't know where UMB WX is located... my 7 month old daughter keeps me from dropping into the board as much as I'd like. I'm blaming her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 knockn' and pingn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Bring it. Still feel the core of the band will lift into the first tier of southern WI counties for the longest period. Do think we both might be good for a few quick inches. I still don't know where UMB WX is located... my 7 month old daughter keeps me from dropping into the board as much as I'd like. I'm blaming her. Caledonia, WI. Just south of MKE I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Can yoy please post the snowfall map? I'm not sure how to do so. Everytime I try to post something from weatherbell it doesn't show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 pretty sick late February baroclinic zone, near 60 southern DVN and below freezing along the lake St. Cloud, MN dropped from 35 degrees to 12 in three hours as the front came through there this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 the fgen band is going to end up over MKE, I think the watches have it covered well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GFS going to be a little bit quicker with the cold front over NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah for sure, it looks to mimic the November 2015 storm intensity-wise. Not sure about placement tho. My gut feeling says Geos and S Wisco will get slammed. 4-8" in my grid. 4km NAM agrees with the 12km. Hoping you get something out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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