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BuffaloWeather

Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!

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Wny looks pretty good on most models i have seen , i would be a little excited if i was there..(if u enjoy snow).. Here in Wcny  we are right on the borederline..We have seen some bumps SE with the current modeling..

 

4k nam has a nice look to it..Much farther SE then it's precious run..

 

 

 

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Kbuf

 

 

 

 

COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TIGHTEN WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE STILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT RUN-TO-RUN FLUCTUATIONS
WITHIN THE LARGER ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS THE NORTHERNMOST/WARMEST OVERALL MODEL AND
TRACKS THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES ZONES...BUT AT THE SAME TIME IS ALSO A NOTABLY SLOWER OUTLIER
/AND PRODUCES HEAVIER OVERALL PRECIP/ COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...
ALL OF WHICH EXHIBIT A SOMEWHAT FASTER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE PREFERRED
BY WPC. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GEM IS THE NORTHERNMOST WITH A
TRACK SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THAT OF THE NAM...WHILE THE ECMWF
IS THE SOUTHERNMOST AND COLDEST OVERALL SOLUTION WITH A TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE GFS LYING HALFWAY IN BETWEEN THE
GEM AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES ALL FAVOR A FASTER
SYSTEM WITH THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS MOSTLY FAVORING A TRACK EITHER
ALONG OR A BIT SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...WE FEEL IT BEST TO LEAN HEAVILY ON A BLEND
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE FORECAST IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AT THIS TIME...WHILE DISREGARDING THE SLOWER AND WETTER NAM
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

USING THE ABOVE AS A GUIDE...TUESDAY SHOULD START OFF ON THE MAINLY
DRY SIDE...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROUGH JAMESTOWN TO ROCHESTER TO NORTH COUNTRY
LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN FEATURE A WIDESPREAD
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW MAKES ITS
CLOSEST OVERALL APPROACH TO OUR AREA...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING PRECIP
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

IN TERMS OF PTYPE...TEMPS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND MAINLY SNOW FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH A NARROW RIBBON IN BETWEEN WHERE A MIX OF RAIN...
SNOW...AND SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY EVENING THINGS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MUCH MESSIER AS THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS EITHER
HOLD STEADY OR BEGIN TO COOL AS COLDER AIR BEGINS WRAPPING IN AROUND
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. ALL OF THIS
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...A WINTRY MIX LYING
FROM MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THIS MIX OF PTYPES SHOULD THEN TEND TO TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES BY OUR LONGITUDE AND
DRAWS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH AN INCREASING
DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOWS
THEN TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY.

AT THIS JUNCTURE...GIVEN BOTH THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS AND A BLEND
OF THE WPC/GLOBAL MODEL QPF FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL WITHIN
THE ADVISORY RANGE FROM THIS EVENT. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT APPEARS
THAT WE CAN EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE REGION WHERE A WINTRY MIX IS MOST
PERSISTENT...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE IN A SWATH NORTH OF THIS EXTENDING FROM THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WITH ALL
THIS AND CONTINUED LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS LOW IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN
THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. THIS SAID...IT
SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT NARROW REGIONS OF WARNING-CRITERIA
ICE OR SNOW STILL BOTH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR OUR REGION...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM ULTIMATELY TAKES A TRACK THAT IS EITHER
FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

 

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I definitely can see what buf is saying. The combo of ice and snow with the fast movement will make it tough to get warning criteria amounts. Ideally u want a robust low further se...which is difficult in the current pattern with no blocking.

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12Z GFS slams BUF again, verbatim definitely warning criteria. Prob 8-12".

So I'm supposed to travel for business tomorrow, returning late Wednesday.  My personal threshold for cancelling work trips is double-digits (I missed a couple big storms when traveling and decided not to let that happen again).  Anyway...this storm isn't making the decision easy.  It certainly doesn't appear to be a huge hit, but I would hate to miss an 8-12 incher, especially the way this winter has gone.  

 

Anyone care to place a percentage on BUF getting 10 inches or more from this storm?  

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So I'm supposed to travel for business tomorrow, returning late Wednesday. My personal threshold for cancelling work trips is double-digits (I missed a couple big storms when traveling and decided not to let that happen again). Anyway...this storm isn't making the decision easy. It certainly doesn't appear to be a huge hit, but I would hate to miss an 8-12 incher, especially the way this winter has gone.

Anyone care to place a percentage on BUF getting 10 inches or more from this storm?

10 maybe 15 percent

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10 maybe 15 percent

About what I was thinking too.  I'll do you all a favor and keep my trip.  I'm sure a freak deformation band will set up over BUF and we end up with 16+ inches.  Then I'll get the angry call from my wife after she shovels the driveway where she says,"You idiot, you spend all that time on weather forums and looking at models, and you STILL didn't know we were going to get all this snow??!!"  

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About what I was thinking too. I'll do you all a favor and keep my trip. I'm sure a freak deformation band will set up over BUF and we end up with 16+ inches. Then I'll get the angry call from my wife after she shovels the driveway where she says,"You idiot, you spend all that time on weather forums and looking at models, and you STILL didn't know we were going to get all this snow??!!"

Lol. Im pretty sure any freak def band would set up near hamilton or toronto. Even if buf gets more qpf...the snowgrowth looks a lot better just nw.

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Cejka on WIVB this morning called for a mix - a total non event for the whole region, 2" of slop for Buffalo. He's the worst on air met in town, not because he regularly goes low, but because he puts no effort into his forecasts and dumps the real analysis on the next shift.

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No flags yet from BUF for WNY.  I would expect something to be issued very soon based on this updated point forecast for BUF:

 

Tuesday
Snow, mainly after 2pm. High near 35. East wind 5 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. East wind 15 to 17 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

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... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through

Wednesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Winter Storm

Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through

Wednesday morning.

* Locations... portions of the Niagara Frontier east to Monroe

County.

* Timing... from early Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday

morning... . with the period of heaviest snow expect overnight

Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

* Hazards... heavy snow and freezing rain.

* Accumulations... snow potentially accumulating 5 to 10 inches.

Ice potentially accumulating up to one tenth of an inch.

Snowfall rates could reach an inch per hour Tuesday night into

early Wednesday morning.

* Winds... northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Visibilities... as low as a quarter mile at times.

* Impacts... heavy snow and some ice accumulations will make

travel difficult. The heaviest snow is expected to fall

overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... which

could make for difficult travel during the Wednesday morning

commute.

* Forecaster confidence... confidence is highest for significant

snow accumulations northwest of a line from Buffalo to

Rochester... where precipitation should fall as all snow.

Confidence is medium for locations southeast of this line where

there is greater uncertainty where the transition line to

sleet... freezing rain... and rain will evolve.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means that heavy snow and/or ice

accumulations are possible. If you are within the watch area...

remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of

weather information for the latest updates. Additional details

can also be found at www.Weather.Gov/Buffalo.

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Good discussion from BUF.  Nice use of warm nose...

 

AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... A
WARM NOSE
OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL SURGE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NY AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WHILE LOCATIONS
JUST NORTH OF THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
COLUMN. THE SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
NOTED ABOVE WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INCLUDING MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY) ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM... AND THUS STAYING MOSTLY SNOW. THUS
HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT P-TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. THE
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF A
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER LINE... WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW... BUT PERHAPS A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. FARTHER SOUTH YET...
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER... PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE ENTIRELY OVER TO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FINISHING AS SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
FROM ABOUT THE TUG HILL NORTH. THE TRANSITION LINE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO OSWEGO COUNTY... WITH NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE
MORE SNOW... WHILE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY SEE MORE SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN WITH MUCH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
ACROSS TO MONROE COUNTY AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN AN ALL SNOW EVENT. LOCATIONS IN THE ALL
SNOW SIDE OF THE STORM WILL SEE A HEAVY WET SYNOPTIC SNOW. USING
CONSENSUS QPF AND A BEST BLEND OF SNOW RATIO TECHNIQUES... THE ALL
SNOW AREAS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT A 12 TO 1 TO 14 TO 1 RATIO WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND TWO THIRDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. FORECAST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS TO
ROCHESTER RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER
NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY... FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES FROM ABOUT THE TUG HILL NORTH
TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONFIDENCE IN A
SWATH OF 6 TO 10 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMES FROM THE CIPS ANALOGS.
THE MEAN AND MEDIAN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE ANALOGS ALSO SHOWED AN
UPWARD TREND FROM THE 00Z TO THE 12Z RUN TODAY WITH AN IMPROVING
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. LOOKING THROUGH SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL
STORMS IN THE ANALOG REVEALS THAT 6 TO 10 INCHES IS RIGHT WITHIN THE
REALM OF REASONABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR A LOW OF THIS TRACK AND
SPEED. AGAIN... LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE WATCH AREA ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... WHILE AREAS ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE SMALL CHANGES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW CAN HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE P-TYPE TRANSITION
LINE. ONCE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRANSITION LINE INCREASES... WILL
LIKELY NEED A SWATH OF COUNTIES IN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

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Here's what I am thinking. Still concerned that I might be a bit too low across the board especially in the Mohawk Valley to Saratoga Lake George regions. 1_zpsbvxnxflz.png

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