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GHD III possible Winter Storm February 1st-3rd


Thundersnow12

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Ah yes, the GFS begins its move. Well played.

I think Wisconsinwx's heart just stopped.

 

I blinked for sure.  This is kind of a make or break storm.  If we do well, a lot of the heartbreak of the last few years can be forgotten, especially as a lot of us bask in the good luck of Groundhog Day as far as snowstorms go.  If it misses just south with the bulk of the snow, I will be lighting up the complaint thread, as I figure the few posters to my north and west will as well.  Wouldn't be quite as agonizing to miss north, but still disappointing.

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Not sure if I'm really feeling this one. The lack of upper level ridging to the east doesn't really scream cutter to me.

 

Had this thought earlier...PNA looks to be neutral at the time of this possible storm so moisture return already looks good but without a -PNA I don't know how much of a SE ridge we will see. 

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Had this thought earlier...PNA looks to be neutral at the time of this possible storm so moisture return already looks good but without a -PNA I don't know how much of a SE ridge we will see. 

I don't think that the PNA will go much into the - numbers.  However it will quickly crash from its current + numbers to near neutral.  Also the + EPO will start crashing as well, but will not go much lower than -.5 so cold arctic air shouldn't evade the northern plains to suppress this system that far south, this is well supported by the AO dropping only to near neutral. Also the MJO is forecast to move into phase 4 which correlates to near normal temps and above normal precip from MSP south to Des Monies and up into central WI. I expect that the best scenario for snowfall will be from SW Iowa thru the central part of the state up thru SE MN into Central WI.  The track that i think would be the 2nd best choice is from SW Minnesota thru the Twin Cities.

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You are so right, it has felt like this should be coming like tomorrow but no still a week out, I guess that is what happens when you watch the models for the east coast storm 

Definitely some big dog potential but so long to go. Already feels like we've been tracking this one forever.

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