blizzardof96 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 12z ECMWF has a nice front end thump across the golden horseshoe... 3-5" with 6"+ near YHM due to a Lehs band. Sfc temps would probably trend down if a similar track held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The 12z EPS mean tracks from OKC-STL-Flint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looking good so far. The warm front being closer to the Ohio River is a good positive sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So close, but not too far north. That high pressure needs to stand its ground more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Seems to stall in N IL and throw wrap around snow showers across most if not all of IL/IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS going in the right direction is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Low hardly moves for 20 hours. Epic totals in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yeah Iowa into southern Wisco sees snow for over 24 hours straight....and fairly moderate on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Low hardly moves for 20 hours. Epic totals in Iowa. That seems unrealistic, especially with the weakness in the ridge to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Probably unrealistic like Stebo said. System should keep on moving ENE. Subtract these numbers from these and you still get epic totals. Moneyman jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ah yes, the GFS begins its move. Well played. I think Wisconsinwx's heart just stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The warm front being closer to the Ohio River is a good positive sign. Wow Wow. 18z GFS shows big snow totals from CO/WY to MI and Ontario. But it misses Chicago and Detroit by a couple of miles. 10-30" for southeast Wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Very end of the DGEX. Had to post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Not sure if I'm really feeling this one. The lack of upper level ridging to the east doesn't really scream cutter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ah yes, the GFS begins its move. Well played. I think Wisconsinwx's heart just stopped. I blinked for sure. This is kind of a make or break storm. If we do well, a lot of the heartbreak of the last few years can be forgotten, especially as a lot of us bask in the good luck of Groundhog Day as far as snowstorms go. If it misses just south with the bulk of the snow, I will be lighting up the complaint thread, as I figure the few posters to my north and west will as well. Wouldn't be quite as agonizing to miss north, but still disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 GEFS 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Not sure if I'm really feeling this one. The lack of upper level ridging to the east doesn't really scream cutter to me. Had this thought earlier...PNA looks to be neutral at the time of this possible storm so moisture return already looks good but without a -PNA I don't know how much of a SE ridge we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I can dig it.Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Had this thought earlier...PNA looks to be neutral at the time of this possible storm so moisture return already looks good but without a -PNA I don't know how much of a SE ridge we will see. I don't think that the PNA will go much into the - numbers. However it will quickly crash from its current + numbers to near neutral. Also the + EPO will start crashing as well, but will not go much lower than -.5 so cold arctic air shouldn't evade the northern plains to suppress this system that far south, this is well supported by the AO dropping only to near neutral. Also the MJO is forecast to move into phase 4 which correlates to near normal temps and above normal precip from MSP south to Des Monies and up into central WI. I expect that the best scenario for snowfall will be from SW Iowa thru the central part of the state up thru SE MN into Central WI. The track that i think would be the 2nd best choice is from SW Minnesota thru the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Definitely some big dog potential but so long to go. Already feels like we've been tracking this one forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 You are so right, it has felt like this should be coming like tomorrow but no still a week out, I guess that is what happens when you watch the models for the east coast storm Definitely some big dog potential but so long to go. Already feels like we've been tracking this one forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Stress levels will be up all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Definitely some big dog potential but so long to go. Already feels like we've been tracking this one forever. I have actually been watching this on the GFS since the 17th (see Mountain West thread) since it was weirdly consistent on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Welcome to the club hahah I have actually been watching this on the GFS since the 17th (see Mountain West thread) since it was weirdly consistent on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ah yes, the GFS begins its move. Well played. I think Wisconsinwx's heart just stopped. You got that right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Low a little slower coming through the Great Basin on Sunday night. Stress levels will be up all week That's what we get for having this as a hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Slightly weaker coming out through KS, little north. DLL is buried. This time we have a system that keeps moving along. We don't have those 40" amounts in Iowa this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Well, at least the CMC looks better organized at 180 than it did at 12z. Edit: And, of course, it starts to fall apart after that. FailFish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I keep forgetting that the 00z GFS is available at like 9:15 or 9:30PM. (Mountain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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