• Member Statistics

    16,047
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WIanBW
    Newest Member
    WIanBW
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxUSAF

Pre-storm Banter Thread

Recommended Posts

Didn't want to ask this in the storm thread but, looking at the 18z GFS, did RIC just get a taste of the jackpot?

Appears to be near the southern edge of the heaviest snow. Don't know how much qpf they are given, but I would think they see 12-18, more west and north of the city.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CWG mentioned possible 15:1 ratios on saturday. Turn that 3" of qpf into 45" of powder! Lol. But seriously I think that most areas will average about 12-14:1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since ORF is left out in the cold on this one, I'm looking for recommendations for the best area to chase/snowcation for the weekend without getting buried alive and be able to drive back with a 4WD vehicle Sunday night. What locations do you guys think might be best?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The stuff from the end of the storm could definitely be 15:1 since it'd be at the top of your snowpack, but i'd bet on some compaction further down.  Those who clear their boards and measure every six inches would probably report higher totals than those who don't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long timers on here, like myself, are not stressing and hanging on every model run. Like 1993, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009-10, it's time to let this play out. Favored climo areas are going to get favored, and those that are not will not. A week of solid model runs will not be wrong. Relax and enjoy.... this is the fun part! The hard part is done!

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long timers on here, like myself, are not stressing and hanging on every model run. Like 1993, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009-10, it's time to let this play out. Favored climo areas are going to get favored, and those that are not will not. A week of solid model runs will not be wrong. Relax and enjoy.... this is the fun part! The hard part is done!

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

 

This. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last time we had a closed 500mb low track across the NC VA border all the precip amounts in the DC metro were too high from every model but the EURO was the closest. Just saying  :pimp:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think WBAL literally thinks the RPM is the only model that exists sometimes.

I think they are contractually obligated to use it. Not sure of that but someone posted that on here once.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since ORF is left out in the cold on this one, I'm looking for recommendations for the best area to chase/snowcation for the weekend without getting buried alive and be able to drive back with a 4WD vehicle Sunday night. What locations do you guys think might be best?

Probably somewhere in the Shenadoah Valley up into the WV corner.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last time we had a closed 500mb low track across the NC VA border all the precip amounts in the DC metro were too high from every model but the EURO was the closest. Just saying :pimp:

Which storm? What analog?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From the LWX discussion

 

SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

NEAR CLIMO. THERE WILL BE A STRONG CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE WITH

VERTICAL VELOCITY AND THE LAYER OF MAXIMUM DENTRITIC SNOW GROWTH

BUT FORECAST SHOWS A LARGE LAYER OF RIMING UNDERNEATH THAT LAYER.

 

So the riming cuts down on ratios?  Never heard this mentioned an AFD.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tony Pann gave an update this afternoon on facebook saying that he thinks this storm doesnt crack top 10 for Baltimore which would be 18". He replied to someone saying the GFS is bonkers because of high qpf but every model pretry much has BWI around 2.0" qpf. I think he has another hunch like when he thought yesterdays 12z Euro would show something drastically different.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know we have been pretty focused on where the heaviest banding and accumulations set up amongst other things, but beginning to wonder if the winds is what this storm is really going to be remembered for.  True blizzard conditions here are almost unheard of except for short periods of time.  It's one thing to be in the warm posting jubilation on amwx and another shivering in the cold and dark trapped without power because the Blizzard knocked out our utilities for who knows how long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tony Pann gave an update this afternoon on facebook saying that he thinks this storm doesnt crack top 10 for Baltimore which would be 18". He replied to someone saying the GFS is bonkers because of high qpf but every model pretry much has BWI around 2.0" qpf. I think he has another hunch like when he thought yesterdays 12z Euro would show something drastically different.

I've been pretty disappointed with him this storm. He hasn't had any "hunches" or insight that have actually come true. Usually he's one of the better ones, despite the RPM reliance. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Which storm? What analog?

Don't ask. :axe:  Hopefully invalid cause this storm is a much wider closed low and moving northeast, not due east.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been pretty disappointed with him this storm. He hasn't had any "hunches" or insight that have actually come true. Usually he's one of the better ones, despite the RPM reliance.

True, I usually like him also. However he seems to always root against big snows happening even though he is a snow lover so he will find ways to justify it. I know people like this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look what this "Mikethemanatee" wrote in the obstacles thread.

Those 50 dbz returns in the deep south better go over us and drop 6" per hour rates with thundersnow and hail or else this thing is a bust.

Mods, ban him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm getting bored between model runs.  I'm thinking about going back to Twitter and trolling that Motsco or whatever guy from Philly

Me too. What can we do for fun?. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Final call:

 

BWI: 34"

IAD: 40"

DCA: will get 28" will report 22"

RIC: 18"

 

PHL:  24"

 

It's a monster and it's all being confined to the region south of central PA to n NJ to south shore CT-seMA, slow moving, sharp thermal gradients aloft. Short of a rotation and three day stall, this is the big kahuna.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm getting bored between model runs.  I'm thinking about going back to Twitter and trolling that Motsco or whatever guy from Philly

 

Drink?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.