John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pivotal wx uses the Kuchera method for snow ratios which takes adjusts for various temp profiles. Not as easy to find a good definition of this method on Google as one might think! Here is the 12z NAM using the Kuchera method. Have to credit Cheezenado from the SE forum for using this there. Also, listed below is the PivotalWx link. kucheranam12z.JPG http://www.pivotalweather.com/ I've actually seen that basic map come close to verifying but the north central valley snow hole is usually more towards Knox/Loudon/NW Blount near the airport. I believe it slightly misreads the urban heat effect near Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The models will never have the exact snow totals in the same place twice. You just have to smooth them out and hope for the best. Someone in East Tennessee will get the dry slot as MRX mentioned. Just hope it's during the rain instead of the snow as they mentioned. Also downsloping is a real worry in NE Tn. I seem to recall it happened last year or year before last during a snow event. It's just a reality there during lows passing to the south. That region has a good change to get plenty of front end before it happens and get plenty of back side with the low on the coast. No one east of West Tn and south of London Ky is fully in the game yet, nor is anyone out of it yet. The downsloping winds have burned me many, many times here in my part of Greene County. Always a concern and possibility with these big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET. Just click the animer button to animate the map. I like seeing the winds turn to the east then northeast in and around BNA. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=fr&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEM 12z total snowfall hour 60 01212016.png Have given the 0z and 12z GEM a pretty good once over by toggling back and forth. The 12z is much drier almost everywhere downstream from Memphis northeast to DC. The primary is about 100 miles south of its 0z location which was over the intersection of TN, MS, and AL at 36. At 24 on the 12z it is more in central MS but might stay stronger just a shade longer than the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WPC says the GFS slowing it's transfer at 12z is now handling this better than before. They are currently rolling with 12zGFS/00ZEuro/GGEM as the best look in their opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Lol, the geniuses at WBIR are apparently going to throw out the Euro in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET. Just click the animer button to animate the map. I like seeing the winds turn to the east then northeast in and around BNA. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=fr&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Remarkably similar to last night. Drops the 850s across East/Northern/Western Tennessee and keeps them below freezing. Also keeps the dry slot for East Tennessee, but not before .4-.6 or so falls as what should be snow on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WPC on their current thinking. This was from an hour or so ago. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE WESTERNSOLUTION TRANSFERRING INSTEAD TOWARD THE TRIPLE POINT/NEWLOW...TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 00ZCMC AND MUCH LESS LIKE ITS 06Z GEFS MEAN. WILL CONTINUE TOSUPPORT A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THOUGH INCLUDE THE 00Z CMC BUILDING SOMEINCREASED CONFIDENCE PARTICULARLY AFTER 24/00Z; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET. Just click the animer button to animate the map. I like seeing the winds turn to the east then northeast in and around BNA. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=fr&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest I like the way that looks in terms of wind directions across most of the state. A lot of east winds then northerly for most of the state not hours and hours of southerly for most of the state except maybe near the southern border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 About time for the next Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 The UKMET looks almost entirely like the 0z Euro w/ a few minor differences. I think John mentioned this..but in NE TN the 2m line and 850 line is below freezing throughout as soon as the moisture arrives. Heights crash out west as the primary passes. To me...this is a realistic option including the dry slot. I included this so folks could see precip. 24h 30h 36h 42h 48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Our Storm is now kicking up severe storms in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z tom ..22 frozen bna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sharp gradient in northeast TN on the 12z Euro snowfall charts. Also a sharp gradient in and around Nashville (4-5 east Davidson County and 8-9 west Davidson County. Same for Sumner 5 southeast, 8 northwest. Just northeast of Memphis to Clarksville max for the heavy deform band snows (widespread 10-12)Northwest MS has a tongue that extends down with 6+ and actually almost the entire west part of the state does 2+ Northern Louisiana and southern 1/2 of Arkansas also do well with 2-6 inch amounts. Lastly, the screw job is in southern middle TN, northeast MS, and northern AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 oz 48 frozen bna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z euro snowfall map continued - most of the state of TN east of the plateau sees 3-5 inches and northern GA generally sees 2+ (exception is NE tip of GA which gets pounded with a foot plus (probably a lot of ice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z euro snowfall map continued - most of the state of TN east of the plateau sees 3-5 inches and northern GA generally sees 2+ (exception is NE tip of GA which gets pounded with a foot plus (probably a lot of ice) yup,looks like mixing .55 through 6z bna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 mem .81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm actually pretty concerned about my grandmother in GSP. She is 90 and lives by herself. They could have a devastating ice storm on their hands down there. Hopefully it will be mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Has the Euro held steady or have there been notable changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Has the Euro held steady or have there been notable changes? Memphis did better,Nash dropped some.56 this run compared to the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 csv about the same as BNA .55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Central Valley and Southern Plateau added to WSW by MRX... Southern Valley Counties not upgraded. I have a feeling they will be before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .06 MSL...like TWN said,the screw zone.Got friends down there was hoping they'd do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 csv about the same as BNA .55 I dont know how we can get out of this one without a good sized snowfall especially north and northwest of Nashville; I am glad to see allot of the modeling saying basically the same thing; I still say that because we did not get near 40 today will help us tomorrow - assuming everyone wants snow like I do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 47 tys 1.19 tri up from last evening .35 cha..upgrade for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Central Valley and Southern Plateau added to WSW by MRX... Southern Valley Counties not upgraded. I have a feeling they will be before all is said and done. If we do get upgraded, it will be after warning criteria snows have fallen. MRX once famously had its entire CWA except for Hamilton county in a warning and still didn't upgrade us until KCHA had 4 inches already on the ground. I think that was January 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I dont know how we can get out of this one without a good sized snowfall especially north and northwest of Nashville; I am glad to see allot of the modeling saying basically the same thing; I still say that because we did not get near 40 today will help us tomorrow - assuming everyone wants snow like I do lol Just a rough idea..wouldnt pay much attention as we know none of these numbers will pan out,could be more or could be much less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z Euro comments. What a Bonanza for W TN! Some nice 1' amounts arching from just west of Nashville southwest to the Memphis area - give or take a couple of inches on that arch. Overall, it is amazing how close it is to its 0z run. Even by county, not much difference. In NE TN, amounts of about 1' are common from Sullivan and Washington counties northeastward. SE KY and SW VA look good as well w/ amounts ranging from 6-12". Very sharp cut-off on amounts one county over from Sullivan. However, the warm nose is every so slightly weaker...not even sure I would call that a trend. Chatt is even listed w/ a few inches of snow. Has slightly less amounts along the western portion of the eastern Valley and along the Plateau. But honestly, it has been doing that every other run. I would guess the northern Plateau would be money as it usually is. Pretty tight grouping by the global models. Now, time to watch the mesoscale models for trends and to see which model they seem to support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Everyone likes snow maps, right? Just another variation of a "similar" look. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Small changes can make BIG differences over a 25-75 mile distance. Good luck to you guys west of here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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