1234snow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If snow can start falling I've always found it's tougher to switch to rain. Crap I meant rain it starts out as rain lol, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The weather channel is giving .5 ice to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Crap I meant rain it starts out as rain lol, sorry. That is worse then! Hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I've found that the HRRR is really good with simulated radar but not as good with temps. It really didn't do good with the big storm last year. It consistently tried to change us to rain when it never happened. Of course this is a different setup. The HRRR did do good yesterday with the radar but it warmed much of NETN and SWVA above freezing when we didn't get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I've found that the HRRR is really good with simulated radar but not as good with temps. It really didn't do good with the big storm last year. It consistently tried to change us to rain when it never happened. Of course this is a different setup. The HRRR did do good yesterday with the radar but it warmed much of NETN and SWVA above freezing when we didn't get close. Heck, the high in Knoxville was supposed to get to the mid 30s yesterday, but it only got to 28 as a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 MRX AFD: .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM...AS ANOTHER STRONGWINTER STORM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEAFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN TEXAS TONIGHTINTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BY DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEMLIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...MAINLYIN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN...CENTRAL ANDSOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS ALONG THE FAR NORTHERNPLATEAU AND THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL BEBELOW FREEZING. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT ICEACCRETION UP TO ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOMESLEET AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK. THE PROFILE WILLGRADUALLY COOL ALOFT HEADING INTO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY...SO ACHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIAAND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AWINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS BEGINNING ATMIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG OUT OF THE SE AND HELPMAINTAIN AN ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE PROFILE ALONG THE SMOKY MOUNTAINFOOTHILLS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.THESE WINDS...HOWEVER WILL BE BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS A 50-60 KT LLJROTATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINTRYPRECIPITATION TO CREATE SOME BRIEF BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS ALONGTHE PEAKS OF THE GREAT SMOKY AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.ADDITIONALLY...THESE ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATETRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG MOUNTAINS...SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FORTHESE MOUNTAIN ZONES TOMORROW. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE ATRANSITION OF THE WARMER AIR IN THE VALLEY...TO SUBFREEZINGCONDITIONS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER-LOWSHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR WILLQUICKLY FILTER IN AND TRANSITION RAIN TO ALL SNOW AREAWIDE BY A21-00Z TIMEFRAME. AS SHORTLY THEREAFTER...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TOACCUMULATE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S. BASED ON THETIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SNOW EXPECTED LATER...HAVE ISSUED AWINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND ALLOF THE CENTRAL VALLEY STARTING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AS SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTSARE EXPECTED THERE..LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM. THIS IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM AND CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS...BUTOVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THEREGION. PRECIP WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THECENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS THISTRANSITION TAKES PLACE...A BRIEF WINTERY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZINGRAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL SHOULD BESNOW. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSSTHE VALLEY. BY THE TIME ALL IS DONE...THE SOUTHERNVALLEY...INCLUDING CHA...SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 2 TO 3INCHES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALLWITH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...EXTREME SOUTHWEST NC AND THE CENTRALVALLEY EXPECTING 3 TO 6 INCHES...THE NORTHERN VALLEY...INCLUDINGTRI... AND PART OF SOUTHWEST VA 4 TO 8INCHES. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLWILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OFSOUTHWEST VA AND THE APPALACHIANS WHERE 8 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED.WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AWEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTTHROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY THENCHANGING OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18Z NAM clown. Something also I was thinking about while at the beginning of snowfall we will likely have terrible ratios I believe after winds switch around to the north and colder air advects in those ratios improve above 10:1 probably in some instances up to 15:1 maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't envy MRX here. There will be big snow forecast areas that get a lot of rain and big snow areas that see much less. Tough tough system. This may be one of the toughest places in the States to forecast for with so many microclimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 18z NAM looks pretty solid for KTRI and SWVA. I would be extremely happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Flood warnings issued: Two to three inches of rain are expected in north AL before the cold gets here: Source: NWS Huntsville : http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HUN&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 157 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 .DISCUSSION... TWO MAIN IMPACT WEATHER ITEMS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST BEING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT. AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHRA AND A FEW TS WAS ENTERING NWRN AL. THIS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN LA/MS. WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WAS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING ALONG THE LA/TX BORDER. AS A RESULT, PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-4 MB IN JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS. THE RAIN WILL EXPAND OVER ALL OF OUR AREA BY SUNSET WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIP SOLIDIFYING ALONG THE 50KT LLJ THIS EVENING FROM SW THRU NRN AL. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY RAINFALL RATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS S OF THE TN RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS IS WHERE SOME OF THE MOST SATURATED SOILS ARE LOCATED FROM PREVIOUS RAIN/FLOODING DURING THE PAST MONTH. THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT WASHOUTS ALONG HILLSIDES FROM PREVIOUS FLOODING, INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD RISK IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. THUS, HAVE GONE WITH A FFA FOR TONIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD SHIFT THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER RAIN EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FFA A BIT LONGER DEPENDING ON THIS. NOT ALOT OF CHANGE IN FORECAST SYNOPTIC FIELDS SINCE YESTERDAY WRT THE UPPER LOW AND WINTER STORM. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NRN AL LATE FRI MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC LOW ENTERING N AL THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO NRN GA BY EVENING. A STRONGER WARM NOSE NOW WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY DELAY THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS MAY NOT AFFECT OUR FAR NW AL AREA. THE HEAVIEST DEFORMATION SNOW BAND MAY LINGER IN NW AL INTO EARLY EVENING, THEN SHIFT E AND NE. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TOO, SO EXPECTING HIGHER TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES (PERHAPS 3 INCHES ATOP THE PLATEAU) IN SOUTHERN TN. MOST AREAS FURTHER S WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS, AND THIS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE TO THE PRECIP IN THESE AREAS. N-NW WINDS WILL GUST AT 25-30 MPH, ESPECIALLY ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE LOW PULLS EAST. THIS MAY LOWER VSBY CONSIDERABLY AT TIMES IN THE SNOW. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN NERN AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN, THEN TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END BEFORE AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S, WE HAVE CONCERNS FOR ICY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE TO FREEZING OF STANDING WATER/PONDING DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL TOLD, AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, HAVE OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS (2 SEGMENTS FOR STARTING AND ENDING TIMES). WE MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN SRN TN AND FAR NW THAT COULD EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IF THE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND SETS UP IN THESE AREAS, SO WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE AT A LATER TIME IF THIS OCCURS. VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SUGGESTED BLENDS WITH FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW SOON COLD AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT HAVE KEPT ALL RAIN ATTM. Bit of a typo with "Tuesday" in the last paragraph, but it is a very busy week for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 18z NAM looks pretty solid for KTRI and SWVA. I would be extremely happy with that. I would be too... Sitting around 5 Inches for me. I do question ratios though. I really think they are going to kick up under cold air advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't envy MRX here. There will be big snow forecast areas that get a lot of rain and big snow areas that see much less. Tough tough system. This may be one of the toughest places in the States to forecast for with so many microclimates. Agree. And their CWA covers so many different elevations and geographical areas, and not to mention there is such a difference in climate from Chatty to Southwest VA, especially in Winter. And with this storm causing a lot of downsloping, who knows what will happen in the central valley, or even northeast TN. We will both be experiencing a reduction in precip rates and amounts until the winds shift off of the Smokies. There is HUGE bust potential in this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just went under a WS Warning here, we will see if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 BTW... FFC issued WWA all the way south to to include Metro Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agree. And their CWA covers so many different elevations and geographical areas, and not to mention there is such a difference in climate from Chatty to Southwest VA, especially in Winter. And with this storm causing a lot of downsloping, who knows what will happen in the central valley, or even northeast TN. We will both be experiencing a reduction in precip rates and amounts until the winds shift off of the Smokies. There is HUGE bust potential in this forecast. I honestly don't see it busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just went under a WS Warning here, we will see if it pans out. I seriously believe you're in a great great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I honestly don't see it busting. I won't feel comfortable until I see the temps in the valley dropping and a decent precipitation field moving in after the low pressure moves off to the southeast. Even MRX acknowledges this is a very difficult and complex forecast. The central valley will have to depend on the comma head/deformation band to get their snow, as we'll be too warm beforehand. I've been burned one too many times by these types of systems to be 100% confident in computer models. Clouding up here...and temp at 38. We managed to keep some snow on the ground to welcome the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Latest Snowfall Map V 2.0 from MRX for this storm. We have tapper'd out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Latest Snowfall Map V 2.0 from MRX for this storm. We have tapper'd out... Slid their 6-8 right over my house. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I won't feel comfortable until I see the temps in the valley dropping and a decent precipitation field moving in after the low pressure moves off to the southeast. Even MRX acknowledges this is a very difficult and complex forecast. The central valley will have to depend on the comma head/deformation band to get their snow, as we'll be too warm beforehand. I've been burned one too many times by these types of systems to be 100% confident in computer models. Clouding up here...and temp at 38. We managed to keep some snow on the ground to welcome the next system. I doubt that MRX would pull the trigger on a WSW for the Central Valley if they didn't have some degree of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Latest Snowfall Map V 2.0 from MRX for this storm. We have tapper'd out... I'll live with 4-6. Here's to hoping we all at least see the grass disappear with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I doubt that MRX would pull the trigger on a WSW for the Central Valley if they didn't have some degree of confidence. Exactly. But I've lived in the Valley for nearly 15 years, and I've seen what can go wrong. Hoping it does happen, and we all see significant snow, but I have cautious optimism. This shows what gives me pause...the dry slot and the fact we'll have downsloping going on as well for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Exactly. But I've lived in the Valley for nearly 15 years, and I've seen what can happen. Hoping it does happen, but I have cautious optimism. I agree. You don't have to go far back to see high totals forecast and busted. I'm cautiously optimistic that they are being conservative not liberal in their entire CWA snowfall forecast. I've always tended to notice day and afternoon shifts at MRX tend to be conservative and overnight shift tends to be liberal. As has been said over and over today on the forums this storm with small changes in LP track can change areas with little snowfall forecast to much larger and visa versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Exactly. But I've lived in the Valley for nearly 15 years, and I've seen what can happen. Hoping it does happen, but I have cautious optimism. I've lived in the Valley for 22 years, and I've learned that it's better to prepare like there's a big storm coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I've lived in the Valley for 22 years, and I've learned that it's better to prepare like there's a big storm coming. Ok...you've missed my point. But that's ok. Here's to getting snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From MRX, for Kingsport....quite the look! Friday Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 1pm. High near 31. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Night Snow and freezing rain, becoming all snow after 8pm. Low around 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 30. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Knoxville gets pretty close to some nice totals on the latest RGEM. Has the snow hole over Nashville area...but looks like a glitch to me. Would disregard based on other runs not missing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ok...you've missed my point. But that's ok. Here's to getting snow tomorrow. I still think it won't bust. If I'm wrong, then I won't post my opinions anymore and just sit back and listen. Anyways, I agree with your last sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Knoxville gets pretty close to some nice totals on the latest RGEM. Has the snow hole over Nashville area...but looks like a glitch to me. Would disregard based on other runs not missing at all. Can you post it Carvers? I'm not able to look right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I still think it won't bust. If I'm wrong, then I won't post my opinions anymore and just sit back and listen. Anyways, I agree with your last sentence. I certainly hope it doesn't. I just mentioned I get worried with these types of systems in the east TN valley, and there is always that potential. I was just posting my own opinion/worries, as I'm sure everyone here is welcome to do. And I'm certainly prepared. Already made my grocery store run in preparation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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