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Ralph Wiggum

January 22-23 Storm Threat

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On the plus side, the Euro was too far south with last weekend's storm.  OTOH ... the Euro was alone taking Joaquin OTS.

 

Let's see how much ensemble support it has in a few hours.

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On the plus side, the Euro was too far south with last weekend's storm. OTOH ... the Euro was alone taking Joaquin OTS.

Let's see how much ensemble support it has in a few hours.

The Euro also had a blizzard for us last January so it does in fact have its flaws still.

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UKMET looks similar to the Euro. Same basic track. All ens mean now in line to keep this well South of our region just skirting us while remaining progressive. Is it right? Not sure, but the fact this shift has reared its ugly head as soon as the PAC data was better sampled should sound an alarm. 

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Feeling disappointed, but that's b/c I'm a weenie newb.

 

We go through this to-and-fro malarkey EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.

 

A bad meteorologist lives and dies by each model run, a good meteorologist forecasts through using models as guidance. That's the difference.

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Feeling disappointed, but that's b/c I'm a weenie newb.

 

We go through this to-and-fro malarkey EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.

 

A bad meteorologist lives and dies by each model run, a good meteorologist forecasts through using models as guidance. That's the difference.

Thus why I have been urging caution all week and saying temper expectation until 12Z Wednesday. Been thru this too many times before. If its any saving grace, we still have 3+ days to rectify this.

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Man I'm depressed. Whole day is ruined bc of the 12z Euro. Quite the life I live

We still get 3-6"/4-8" on the Euro. Sign me up!

I mean, we just had a ridiculously warm December. If someone told me a month ago that we would have a shot at a 3-6"/4-8" event in January, I would have been all over it.

We need to just take what we can get while keeping expectations low.

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We still get 3-6"/4-8" on the Euro. Sign me up!

0 for Abe !

Hard to believe 00z was 20" and 12z is 0"!

But as ST is saying, only a small piece is being sampled, everything will be sampled tonight.

Gut feeling is a suppressed storm with south of philly winners.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries.

Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night.

If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one.

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So, we go from people guaranteeing "at least" 1-2 feet, to "sticking a fork in it?"  LOL...ok.  You guys need to lighten up with the overly high highs, and overly low lows.

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NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries.

Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night.

If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one.

 

Or, there's something else going on at play here.

 

How can people throw out all the consistency of the last 2 days, due to ONE model run. It's much smarter to wait and see if the trend continues, or if it reverses itself. Right now, we hang in the balance.

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NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries.

Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night.

If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one.

 

You are throwing in the towel because of the NAVGEM?  I have never seen anybody else on this forum reference that model except you.  It is worthless.  Yes the EPS moved south but are still north of the Op.  The Euro is still on its own really as far as reliable modeling goes.

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You are throwing in the towel because of the NAVGEM? I have never seen anybody else on this forum reference that model except you. It is worthless. Yes the EPS moved south but are still north of the Op. The Euro is still on its own really as far as reliable modeling goes.

Youre right, its the navgem. Not because "the most accurate model in the world" is essentially out to sea.

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Seriously?

Yeah, not a fan of moderate snows. I'm an all or nothing kinda guy, I'll mortgage a couple of winters for 15+ storms. All I need is one huge storm and I'm good.

Edit: last year's nickel and dime snows sucked for me...

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