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Solak

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion

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4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

it is about to make landfall, a flareup in convection at this point doesnt make any difference. 

Sure it does....it speaks to the overall health of the system, the FL winds only mix down to the surface when there is strong storms around the center to mix these to the ground...anytime a system like this has warming cloud tops around the center it usually means weakening or at the very least little in the way of strengthening....this loop shows clearly the center suddenly warming its not a sign of a healthy well organized system and it tells me it may have peaked....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-ft-long.html

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31 minutes ago, beanskip said:

This thing is going to have to work hard to get east of Tallahassee. If it doesn't .... TIM BERRRRRRRRR.

Just hope it continues to accelerate and the duration of worse winds are limited to a few hrs.....looks like a nighttime hit so that sucks...hopefully it isnt to bad and the power outages are short lived....try to get some video though.

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This thing still looks like it's strengthening to me, new convection firing...just running out of gulf space.

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 4.11.38 PM.png

Agreed. It's also gone from no defined center, to what could be considered two eye-wall bands very quickly.

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Friction from land interaction should really begin to kick in and that eye will likely consolidate. Strengthening hurricanes at landfall are nothing to mess around with. This could catch quite a few off guard over the next day(s).

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

18z NAM really dumps on central and eastern NC. This is out to 48 hours, still some precip falling in N.NC.

 

9-1-2016 4-28-22 PM.jpg

Why dont ya do the honor and start of Obs/realtime thread for Hermine since the threat is legit could be a epic rainfall event if the models are correct....and that way we wont clutter up the general thread....

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6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Why dont ya do the honor and start of Obs/realtime thread for Hermine since the threat is legit could be a epic rainfall event if the models are correct....and that way we wont clutter up the general thread....

Done!

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On to the next one over much of the Carolinas and the southeast. This storm is going east and I would not be surprised if most areas west of an Augusta GA, Raleigh NC line stay mostly dry. The east trend is not over with this. It will track OFFSHORE of the Carolinas.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Why does the 4k NAM show so much more rain through the Triangle than the 32k or 12k?  And which version is more reliable anyway?

Neither probably. I'm going with a blend of the GFS and the NAM. About 0.75" in the central Triangle.

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4k NAM seems to develop a north spur of lower pressure off the main storm and maybe that's enhancing the rainfall. Honestly, it doesn't make a lot of sense. I wouldn't expect the western side of a TS to generate a whole lot of rain, even with frontal enhancement and upper air support.

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6 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

4k NAM seems to develop a north spur of lower pressure off the main storm and maybe that's enhancing the rainfall. Honestly, it doesn't make a lot of sense. I wouldn't expect the western side of a TS to generate a whole lot of rain, even with frontal enhancement and upper air support.

I have a hard time buying the 4K NAM, but I don't have a problem with the possibility of enhancement on the west side, based on the factors you mentioned.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I have a hard time buying the 4K NAM, but I don't have a problem with the possibility of enhancement on the west side, based on the factors you mentioned.

I don't buy the NAM either but is OK at SLP tracking inside 24 hours.  With that track we would be rainy/windy.  

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It was only slightly east of where the eye seems to be tracking now. Not enough to matter. Models are pretty tightly clustered around a far eastern coastal plain track.

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7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I don't buy the NAM either but is OK at SLP tracking inside 24 hours.  With that track we would be rainy/windy.  

My guess is 3.5" at RDU.

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I have following Hermine so closely I forgot about Lester to my east. 

We are under a hurricane watch. When was the last time Oahu was under a hurricane watch? This is also the first hurricane watch I have ever been under. Everyone is about to go into panic mode like with 40mph tropical storm Darby. Lol. I think Lester might pass just to the north here.

 

Obama is also here currently. 

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9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

My guess is 3.5" at RDU.

About what I was thinking...3-5" across the triangle.  RAH is mentioning 30-40mph gusts. 

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

About what I was thinking...3-5" across the triangle.  RAH is mentioning 30-40mph gusts. 

Yeah, that sounds about right.  How's the GFS coming in?  Ticking east?

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, that sounds about right.  How's the GFS coming in?  Ticking east?

Quite. Probably a good 20-30 miles from 12z/18z. Looks like sharp precip cut off through northern Durham and Orange counties. It dropped totals in south Durham from 2.3" to 1.1". Strangely, wind fields look about the same. I think the storm being closer to the ocean allows it to stay a little stronger.

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