Powerball Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Got a chance to look at BUFKIT...despite the marginal temps here, nice zone of lift with it intersecting the DGZ so could have some nice flake size. Even though diurnal effects are near the minimum at this point in the year, I also like that the bulk of this is coming in after dark, assuming that timing holds. It's already a marginal setup and every fraction of a degree counts, especially around here given some marine influence, so it would be nice to take any diurnal contribution off the table. Would prefer if the upper level low remained closed off at 500mb, for ideal snowflake growth and aggregation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Put me in the boat of never heard of this Bernie what's his name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks like you should be at freezing by 60 hour Hoosier on the 12km NAM. 4km NAM has you at 33° at that same time. As long as those winds aren't blowing off the core of 40° water, I think you'll be fine with N winds and getting snow. 33 would be doable if precip rates are good. Obviously would prefer to get to freezing or below as quickly as possible. Glad I'm not right on the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll take the 12z GEM please lol. All other models deliver a dense cirrus canopy here lolz. We need a broad spread the wealth storm system. These nail biters (especially in a season like this) can be frustrating for those who don't get to participate. Hopefully Feb brings more widespread snows across the board. Totally agree. It's more difficult to get the big "spread the wealth" storms in the midwest. After 7 years of living in the midwest, I'm still trying to get used to these narrow bulls eye systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Put me in the boat of never heard of this Bernie what's his name Replaced Bastardi after he left. He's okay. Fwiw, I agree with him. Just banking on a slower wave and northern stream being caught for a decent phase. Of course, trends today went against this. But always like waves at the start of pattern changes...whether temporary or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think there is good reason not to have much faith in the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Put me in the boat of never heard of this Bernie what's his name He's alright. Doesn't seem to hype things up. I don't know if the snow will get back to Madison like he said, but it would be nice if Milwaukee could pull something from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 He's alright. Doesn't seem to hype things up. I don't know if the snow will get back to Madison like he said, but it would be nice if Milwaukee could pull something from this. If you watch his past videos, he was calling for a storm when this was a popcorn fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 21z SREF mean is around 3" of snow for GYY. More importantly, qpf is almost .75 (again subtracting tomorrow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 He's alright. Doesn't seem to hype things up. I don't know if the snow will get back to Madison like he said, but it would be nice if Milwaukee could pull something from this. Wow he thinks snow to MSN? Lol I gotta watch that video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Wow he thinks snow to MSN? Lol I gotta watch that video. I think he said just east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Dude sounds like a total weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 JOT mean a little over 2 inches...a couple of decent thumps....most between 1 and 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm waiting for a dig and better trajectory of the jet...more NE than E...leading to a pivot point placement for someone in the sub. Haven't seen much of a pivot point modeled yet. Content with a 2 incher IMBY...will gladly take more if it's in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 NAM looms to continue trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Speaking of weenies, I noticed three things about this video: 1) He sure does mention Chicago a lot. Must be the only place that matters, right ALEK? 2) Chuckled when he almost drew a weenie and caught himself. 3) He circled my area in Michigan and put us in the "over 3 inches" category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Bernie isn't going to like the new NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks SE as ever wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 First SE trend before an event I've seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Wagons south Don't lie, you've been itching to utter that phrase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 On the plus side, northern stream digging a bit more on this run. Need it to interact favorably instead of shunting the system farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 On the plus side, northern stream digging a bit more on this run. Need it to interact favorably instead of shunting the system farther south. Man, I love Geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Precip. shield looks great over eastern IL and western MI http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016010800&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=051 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 First SE trend before an event I've seen in years. We've had plenty of southeast trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Cold sector precip shield quite a bit better compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Precip. shield looks great over eastern IL and western MI http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016010800&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=051 Doesn't have that surface low weakening to the extent of the 18z run. Should be a snowier run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Hmmm not as bad as I would of thought... The nrn stream is once again quicker..that trend continues which ends up leading to a slightly better phase IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 IDK....thought it was a great run for LOT...All things considered and depending on what your expectations were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 For sure. It looks pretty close to the map that Bernie drew...still farther east on the west side, but about right for Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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