Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just looking at a couple of soundings off of the 0z NAM for Monday when the band would be trying to push into SE WI/NE IL, moisture depth isn't great, but you have a saturated layer with absolutely unstable lapse rates up to about 5k feet and through a good chunk of the DGZ. I think the marginal inversion heights/moisture depth would keep things from getting out of hand, but the 18z soundings from under the band look similar, so I could see a band that produces nice, very high ratio dendrites that add up relatively fast. I still like my 3" number max for the west side of the lake given the short duration and marginal moisture depth/inversion heights, but I'm never against bumping up if needed. Any thoughts on the southern and eastern side of the lake? Earlier I was thinking 3-6" somewhere but not ready to commit on placement. Will be nice to get more hi-res runs. Sort of feel like I'm flying in the blind without them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Any thoughts on the southern and eastern side of the lake? Earlier I was thinking 3-6" somewhere but not ready to commit on placement. Will be nice to get more hi-res runs. Sort of feel like I'm flying in the blind without them. As of right now I like 3-6" amounts for parts of NW IN and western MI in the favored NW flow Snowbelts. My main concern as I believe you also mentioned earlier was the winds shifting quite a bit during the event. It looks like winds could be fairly steady NW for a decent period of time Sunday into Sunday night which could allow light to locally moderate snow to be fairly persistent where it's favored in a NW wind. The inversions/moisture/instability all really come up Sunday night into very early Monday for a few hours, but then the winds go NNE and the atmosphere starts drying...so still a short window of heavy snow downwind of the lake on the southern and east side...but longer than on the west side and with some light stuff starting Sunday. Ratios should be pretty good so I could see somewhere locally squeezing out 6". I agree, it'll be interesting once the hi-res stuff starts getting into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Alot of the NWS offices seem to be downplaying the LES threat, especially IWX who mentioned they don't think forcing will be enough for any thing other than snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Alot of the NWS offices seem to be downplaying the LES threat, especially IWX who mentioned they don't think forcing will be enough for any thing other than snow showers. Here's IWX POTENT NRN STREAM SW TROF OVR WRN NWT THIS AFTN WILLAMPLIFY SEWD THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY SUN AS LARGER SCALE ERN CONUS HGTS BUCKLE SIGLY ALLOWING FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER TO SETTLE SWD ACRS THE ERN US. BRIEF BUT VIGOROUS LK RESPONSE XPCD SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON TIMED W/SWD INFLUX OF LL CAA AND FVRBL LL FLW TRAJECTORIES OFF LK MI. SLUG OF ACCOMPANYING MID LVL MSTR ASSOCD/W SW TROF SHLD SERVE TO ENHANCE -SHSN FURTHER INLAND AND IN LIGHT OF GROSS CONSENSUS SIGNALS BUMPED POPS APPRECIABLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Here's IWX Yeah they sounded more bullish in the afternoon afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah they sounded more bullish in the afternoon afd. The GFS and NAM have trended farther west with the core of the upper level trough compared to even a day or two ago and bring colder air and deeper moisture farther west too, so it's not surprising that LOT and IWX for example have both bumped up the wording some in their most recent AFDs. The Euro has consistently looked better for LES for the last couple of days so if that holds another run or two I'd definitely feel good about some "brief but vigorous" LES...brief but vigorous is fun if you're in the right spot, but definitely makes the margin for error smaller than a drawn out event. Definitely good trends today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 This month is looking better, according to the 0Z GFS. (only a tiny bit of that is LES) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Wow at the GEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Geos, why does the precip map from the 0z NAM show nothing along the Lakeside areas of the western shore? Was just going to point that out... It's definitely on these maps. 4km NAM resolution shows the LES even better, but that's not in range quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The GFS and NAM have trended farther west with the core of the upper level trough compared to even a day or two ago and bring colder air and deeper moisture farther west too, so it's not surprising that LOT and IWX for example have both bumped up the wording some in their most recent AFDs. The Euro has consistently looked better for LES for the last couple of days so if that holds another run or two I'd definitely feel good about some "brief but vigorous" LES...brief but vigorous is fun if you're in the right spot, but definitely makes the margin for error smaller than a drawn out event. Definitely good trends today though. Good trends indeed. I guess we can hope the band manages to get hung up somewhere (how about over my house ) and results in more impressive totals. I'm sure you've seen it with Erie where bands end up less transient than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It's definitely on these maps. 4km NAM resolution shows the LES even better, but that's not in range quite yet. That's so strange...this is from WxBell and NCEP has the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Good trends indeed. I guess we can hope the band manages to get hung up somewhere (how about over my house ) and results in more impressive totals. I'm sure you've seen it with Erie where bands end up less transient than predicted. Ha, just a few times It really would only take a few hours of being under the band when conditions are most favorable for LES to get a pretty good total...we'll see if someone can pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That's so strange...this is from WxBell and NCEP has the same... NAM.png Maybe TT is using different calculations for the LES? Seeing a different dry layer height - higher up in the column instead of just above 850mb? If we can get the dry layer to lift up above 800mb or so, we're in better business. We need more high resolution models to get within range. That does look pretty sweet for N IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 A benign week of weather coming up for those of us outside of the belts. Looks like the next synoptic op for precip comes along about Friday. GFS lays some more snow down for the MSP peeps. The next system after that looks to arrive in the Mon-Tue time frame. Will be nice to have something else to track after this short break in activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That next synoptic system on the GFS has an odd track given where the teleconnections are going. Would expect it to have a track more like the CMC is showing a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC is also nice with long term accumulations on the system Widespread 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Ha, just a few times It really would only take a few hours of being under the band when conditions are most favorable for LES to get a pretty good total...we'll see if someone can pull that off. Agree...doesn't take long when it's ripping. There was an event here in January 2014 that dumped like 11" in under 3 hours (I hadn't moved here yet)...there was some enhancement with a s/w moving through but even after moisture/inversion heights started to dip, the band remained intense for a while. Was also supposed to move east quicker but that didn't happen. I love and hate the unpredictability at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Agree...doesn't take long when it's ripping. There was an event here in January 2014 that dumped like 11" in under 3 hours (I hadn't moved here yet)...there was some enhancement with a s/w moving through but even after moisture/inversion heights started to dip, the band remained intense for a while. Was also supposed to move east quicker but that didn't happen. I love and hate the unpredictability at the same time. It's probably safe to say that the best LES often occurs immediately ahead of an approaching shortwave due to increased mid-level moisture and also large scale ascent. I'd guess that if you have a well-established band and the winds don't become too sheared behind the shortwave that uplift within the band can locally cause moisture/inversion heights to remain a bit higher longer than models indicate ahead of time. We'll see if that can help out the west side of the lake at all, as although moisture/inversion heights become marginal pretty quickly behind the shortwave, low level lapse rates could remain very steep which could keep a good band going and allow locally better conditions to persist into Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It's probably safe to say that the best LES often occurs immediately ahead of an approaching shortwave due to increased mid-level moisture and also large scale ascent. I'd guess that if you have a well-established band and the winds don't become too sheared behind the shortwave that uplift within the band can locally cause moisture/inversion heights to remain a bit higher longer than models indicate ahead of time. We'll see if that can help out the west side of the lake at all, as although moisture/inversion heights become marginal pretty quickly behind the shortwave, low level lapse rates could remain very steep which could keep a good band going and allow locally better conditions to persist into Monday afternoon. LOT has mentioned before that studies have shown that meteorological conditions inside a well developed band sometimes aren't handled well by the models...i.e. the thermodynamics can be altered compared to surrounding environment. So basically what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 just a trace of snow today, but snapped this pic of individual snowflakes on my windshield. its crazy how beautiful and intricate each flake is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 cool pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 0z Euro last frame. Nothing to say but WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 IWX really upped there wording in the morning AFD: .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)ISSUED AT 440 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS WAS DISTANT UPSTREAMEARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS STILL OVER THE ARCTIC REGIONS OFNORTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL RACE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SUNDAYAND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK ROUND OF MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EDGE OF A FRESH SURGEOF ARCTIC AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH A BRIEF INTRUSION OFARCTIC AIR. AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THE PAST SEVERALWEEKS...THE DOME OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREAQUICKLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OFTHIS UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE INTERIM..A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FAVORABLELAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EXIST. GIVEN FAVORABLEUPSTREAM PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MILD WATERS OFLAKE MICHIGAN THAT ARE ABOUT 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEOF YEAR...INCREASED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR FAR SOUTHWEST LOWERMICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HIGHESTSNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER BERRIEN COUNTY AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 4INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECT FURTHER INLAND.OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OFTHIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 just a trace of snow today, but snapped this pic of individual snowflakes on my windshield. its crazy how beautiful and intricate each flake is. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 NAM likes to keep the LE in Michigan and Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It's amazing how a inch or two of fresh snow can change the perception of the season. Picked up roughly 1.5" yesterday. Looks like a sharp north to south cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC is also nice with long term accumulations on the system Widespread 7-10 Max snowfall rates of 0.25"/hr? Just awful. In a Super Nino at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It's amazing how a inch or two of fresh snow can change the perception of the season. Picked up roughly 1.5" yesterday. Looks like a sharp north to south cutoff.Agreed on all fronts. Drove yesterday evening from AA where there was just a dusting on the grass to West Bloomfield where there's about an inch and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Agreed on all fronts. Drove yesterday evening from AA where there was just a dusting on the grass to West Bloomfield where there's about an inch and a half. And yet people "cancel" winter every day on the boards, a fresh inch of snow and their tune changes Winter is such a long season but people always think of whats going on right now. On Thanksgiving (a week removed from a big snowstorm) I had to field questions "omg are we in for ANOTHER hard winter" then on Christmas (torch) I had to answer "will we have any winter?". Weather...always talked about, never understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It's amazing how a inch or two of fresh snow can change the perception of the season. Picked up roughly 1.5" yesterday. Looks like a sharp north to south cutoff. Same here. Cold air in winter = snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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