PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html Some people believe they can turn a prostitute into a princess...... oh canada Tommieee, the prodigal son returns. Welcome back. The call has been about 10 days of N to + 2 . Not cold , just back to N and a shift at 500 away from a month of garbage . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Hey, welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nice to see the CFS catching on. Just adds confidence that said changes are coming. Also, nice to see Doorman in here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 thanks for the kind words, boys Take a look here http://w2.weather.gov/climate/calendar_outlook.php?wfo=okx 77% normal or above Jan-Feb-March just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 thanks for the good words boys Take a look here http://w2.weather.gov/climate/calendar_outlook.php?wfo=okx 77% normal or above Jan-Feb-March just sayin I am +1 J-M . Most of the guidance is in step with AN 2M . WSI is there and some others on the board are as well . The key will be can we and where do we lock off at 500 . Can we get into a favorable precip pattern with N 850s . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Doorman is back. Which train will he be on this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html Some people believe they can turn a prostitute into a princess...... oh canada ah so good to see you here my old friend; if you are here then surely interesting times must be in the future....but how far? Jan? Feb? Next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html Some people believe they can turn a prostitute into a princess...... oh canada As for that quote, I believe the emperor Justinian did just that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Cik Global W Hiatus SnoSki Snowman Were all on board with the CFS and argued against and totally dismissed the pattern change. Sooooo.....if I read this right, we can have marginal temps but if snow comes at the right time, like at night, or brings some cold air with it, we can get snowstorms in that kind of setup, as long as we are not like +10, am I getting this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Congratulations. But one day 'does not a trend make'. That is why there is a daily output and a 5 day and 10 day average for the CFS. When the 5 and 10 day keel over I will believe it (if it makes meteorological sense). Meanwhile the experimental 60 day CFS analog still never has the mean value line dip below the normal line for the duration around here. After Jan. 20 about 70% of the members are still favoring above normal. The GFS often moves a potential storm hundreds of miles from the same run 24hrs. earlier. Probably both are wrong. More timely, today's SST @ CI is 53 or +9. Yesterday it was 52----should I now assume it is on the way up and will be 54 tomorrow---or is it better to use the travelling 5 day average to predict tomorrow. But clearly something kick started the model into the right direction. Heights are lower in the southerly jet. I am in the wait and see camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Sooooo.....if I read this right, we can have marginal temps but if snow comes at the right time, like at night, or brings some cold air with it, we can get snowstorms in that kind of setup, as long as we are not like +10, am I getting this right? The forecast is N to plus 2 at the surface Temps over a 10 day period. N 850s for early Jan are -5. So N 850s with sunny skies and a bare ground probably warm to about +2 or 3 Norm highs at KNYC 38 in early Jan Nittany maybe a tick warmer but I think we are close. Jan 1 - 5 on the euro are -3 850 anomalies for that 5 day period , so that's probably N . It's the 5th thru the 10th that are showing AN . But be careful they keep cooling as we get closer. But the fact that the 500 mb pattern is such that HP flows through the lakes and if anything attacks and stays to your S and E those N 850s (-5) all of a sudden become snow at the surface. Day or Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Congratulations. But one day 'does not a trend make'. That is why there is a daily output and a 5 day and 10 day average for the CFS. When the 5 and 10 day keel over I will believe it (if it makes meteorological sense). Meanwhile the experimental 60 day CFS analog still never has the mean value line dip below the normal line for the duration around here. After Jan. 20 about 70% of the members are still favoring above normal. The GFS often moves a potential storm hundreds of miles from the same run 24hrs. earlier. Probably both are wrong. More timely, today's SST @ CI is 53 or +9. Yesterday it was 52----should I now assume it is on the way up and will be 54 tomorrow---or is it better to use the travelling 5 day average to predict tomorrow. But clearly something kick started the model into the right direction. Heights are lower in the southerly jet. I am in the wait and see camp. This is one day ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Cik Global W Hiatus SnoSki Snowman Were all on board with the CFS and argued against and totally dismissed the pattern change. I clearly agreed we would see a huge step down from December but still AN overall, which looks on point as of now. Beside an occasional 2-4 BN days (1st half of Jan) temps look to be AN though much closer to seasonal than we've seen.And you can't declare victory prematurely either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 it's a change from a horrendous pattern to a meh pattern It's a much better pattern moving forward. What's meh about the pattern moving forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I clearly agreed we would see a huge step down from December but still AN overall, which looks on point as of now. Beside an occasional 2-4 BN days (1st half of Jan) temps look to be AN though much closer to seasonal than we've seen. And you can't declare victory prematurely either. You did nothing of the sort . ME Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December. YOU Yes possible but I'm not favoring a snowless winter and yes the rest is correct and noted. The call was A TOTAL pattern flip at 500 and 2m N to plus 2 , you are plus 6 for the month . Are you still plus 6 seeing the guidance leaving you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 ask yourself.... who do I trust in the forum? what insight do I glean? we have seen some very poor progs in the past myself included--- (the NWS bombo last season?) FAIL with that in mind you have got to fight for your right to bring us a snow--- PARTAY!!!!! till then,I won"t swing at EL NINO http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/OPC_ATL.gif Greenland with 1015 HP ATM does not give me any good vibes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Accuweather Jan. outlook has no spectacular highs or lows or much mention of snow. It predicts a low of 20 for the month, which keeps us in the running for the highest low temperature for a winter ever. In 2001-2 thermometer spent less than an hour all winter under 20, bottoming twice at 19degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 0z Euro shows -NAO ,-AO ,+PNA THE TRIFECTAAAA Accuweather Jan. outlook has no spectacular highs or lows or much mention of snow. It predicts a low of 20 for the month, which keeps us in the running for the highest low temperature for a winter ever. In 2001-2 thermometer spent less than an hour all winter under 20, bottoming twice at 19degs. Don't look at Accucrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Accuweather Jan. outlook has no spectacular highs or lows or much mention of snow. It predicts a low of 20 for the month, which keeps us in the running for the highest low temperature for a winter ever. In 2001-2 thermometer spent less than an hour all winter under 20, bottoming twice at 19degs.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 No one is talking snow. No need to move the goal posts here. The trough axis is too far east and snow is not modeled nor expected. We can get back to the pattern change that many of you called transient and a head fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 No one is talking snow. No need to move the goal posts here. The trough axis is too far east and snow is not modeled nor expected. We can get back to the pattern change that many of you called transient and a head fake. Looks like the models show the northern stream dominating for early January . Correct me if I am wrong but during El Nino winters, the STJ doesn't really get cranking until mid to late January. Patience =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 this is better than being much colder with no snow like some years from the past...the ao is forecast to go negative in January...until then enjoy the warmth and low heating bills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 this is better than being much colder with no snow like some years from the past...the ao is forecast to go negative in January...until then enjoy the warmth and low heating bills... Too bad the block near Scandinavia didn't pop over Greenland. Those anomalies would have tanked the AO below -5.000 if they happened closer to Greenland. That is a near record block for that location in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Too bad the block near Scandinavia didn't pop over Greenland. Those anomalies would have tanked the AO below -5.000 if they happened closer to Greenland. That is a near record block for that location in late December. f120.gif a minus five is worlds apart from a plus four for the ao this time of year...the forecast is for a down trend...twt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Too bad the block near Scandinavia didn't pop over Greenland. Those anomalies would have tanked the AO below -5.000 if they happened closer to Greenland. That is a near record block for that location in late December. f120.gif The Kara Sea high is beyond impressive, it is absolutely ridiculous based on what I've seen historically. Anyway, regarding this pattern the split flow nature of this in the 11-15 day would not be a cold signal on the east coast. This is one of those situations where the teleconnections look better, but the east still gets flooded with mild air. Still think the playbook here is to follow the Nino filtered MJO analogs. They argue this cool shot is likely underforecast short term and consequently the GEFS would likely be too cold 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 a minus five is worlds apart from a plus four for the ao this time of year...the forecast is for a down trend...twt... That gradient setting up between the extreme block and the deep low is pretty impressive. Probably not a good time to take the sailboat between Iceland and Ireland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The Kara Sea high is beyond impressive, it is absolutely ridiculous based on what I've seen historically. Anyway, regarding this pattern the split flow nature of this in the 11-15 day would not be a cold signal on the east coast. This is one of those situations where the teleconnections look better, but the east still gets flooded with mild air. Still think the playbook here is to follow the Nino filtered MJO analogs. They argue this cool shot is likely underforecast short term and consequently the GEFS would likely be too cold 11-15. I believe it's the most impressive block in that location since Late January and early February 2012. When you see those 500 mb anomalies cranking over 500 meters above average, you know something major is going on. There has been plenty of research on the enhanced blocking in that location over the last decade or so related to the very low sea ice there into the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The Kara Sea high is beyond impressive, it is absolutely ridiculous based on what I've seen historically. Anyway, regarding this pattern the split flow nature of this in the 11-15 day would not be a cold signal on the east coast. This is one of those situations where the teleconnections look better, but the east still gets flooded with mild air. Still think the playbook here is to follow the Nino filtered MJO analogs. They argue this cool shot is likely underforecast short term and consequently the GEFS would likely be too cold 11-15. Those are small sample sized. Days 11 thru 15 end up N In the east. The NEG is too far west in AK. Days 5 thru 10 cooled the same way . After that D15 on the Euro ensembles are about to deepen that trough into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Those are small sample sized. Days 11 thru 15 end up N In the east. The NEG is too far west in AK. Days 5 thru 10 cooled the same way . I disagree, and explained my reasons why already. More going on than just in the polar regions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I still think the second half of the winter will produce one or two good snowfalls...Temperatures get colder but by how much?...like I said before a February that is ten degrees above last year is still below average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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