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Ginx snewx

No Joaquin the park forecast for Mets

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I'm not sure how you don't see an "NAO connection" given its inverse influence on the westerlies.

That image is not the "entire domain" but a sizable chunk of it. You can deduce the areas further north towards Greenland, based on the geopotential heights in that graphic.

 

I am looking at height based changes and I don't see your connection. The small change was from a s/w trough in Quebec and had little to do with the NAO domain. Those NAO changes you posted earlier don't have an immediate effect on small scale features. 

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I do understand what you mean J, but small scale nuances can easily alter the track when the pattern is already intricate. You can argue that minor changes out west help keep the central Plains ridge extending into Ontario which then helps force the s/w near Maine a bit further SE. Just a ton of complexity.

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The ridge over Quebec is quite intense still, it produces easterlies or northeasterlies to the northeast and north of Joaquin, I don't see how he moves northeastward into that ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean.  Also anyone thinking that Joaquin is upwelling any water given his slow movement, my best guess is that is not happening given that OHC is pretty high in the Bahamas.  Also his outer edges you can see on WV imagery is being influenced by that upper level trough over the SE US.  South, southwesterlies are impinging upon the cirrus canopy, while he remains underneath ideal intensification conditions.

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Well the 18z GEFS were not a blip... I count at least 9 members that make landfall, and further south than 18z GEFS

 

SBosx where are ya?

 

0z GEFS:

post-3106-0-37157700-1443765172_thumb.pn

 

 

 

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Hey weathercoins yeah I was hoping to put this to end earlier tonight (for the sake of work, sleep) but these are a little concerning for OTS... can't believe we are back to a dichotomous cluster on the GEFS

18z / 0z GEFS with ~50% SC-VA landfalls

+ 0z CMC landfall in NC/VA 18z Sun

+ 0z NAM landfall in SC 9z Sun

 

All get there somewhat differently, but still objectively this is a little concerning for locking the OTS forecast

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And not surprisingly. . . Euro came northwest...!

 

Shifted ~ 100-150 miles northwest by hour 72, still too far to have significant impacts but a big shift nonetheless. Let's see where it goes from here...

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A massive shift really comparing the 12z to 0z. But considering it's still not even close it's tough to feel momentum. If ensembles are better.. then hey, yeah. But right now the Joaquin is torturing the whole east coast an arm's length away.

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By hour 96 shifted ~200 miles or more north... trend towards 0z GFS and actually looks to be within NHC's cone (just updated at 2am)... which is out to sea. 

 

It's still for the fishes and surfers, but it's the biggest northwest jump Euro has made in the past 2 days.

The 0z models picked up on something tonight.

 

With so many moving parts far more complex than winter storms we track... with GEFS / CMC still showing potential... bottomline is this still bears watching.

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wxsniss, on 02 Oct 2015 - 02:23 AM, said:

By hour 96 shifted ~200 miles or more north... trend towards 0z GFS and actually looks to be within NHC's cone (just updated at 2am)... which is out to sea. 

 

It's still for the fishes and surfers, but it's the biggest northwest jump Euro has made in the past 2 days.

The 0z models picked up on something tonight.

 

With so many moving parts far more complex than winter storms we track... with GEFS / CMC still showing potential... bottomline is this still bears watching.

Ok....At least we are making progress.

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sbos_wx, on 02 Oct 2015 - 02:27 AM, said:

Seriously, good luck to those islands that have a cat 4 just sitting on top of them. Ridiculous storm duration. They must be in really rough shape.

 

Yea....Im sure we will be seeing plenty of footage of it come saturday

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Took a look at the 0z HWRF, GFDL, not much west shift compared to earlier 18z, pretty much within the NHC cone out to sea and that makes it closest land approach by the Cape.

 

Seriously, good luck to those islands that have a cat 4 just sitting on top of them. Ridiculous storm duration. They must be in really rough shape.

 

Topography of south part of Long Island must be getting a shave...

 

post-3106-0-37064400-1443767737_thumb.jp

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Took a look at the 0z HWRF, GFDL, not much west shift compared to earlier 18z, pretty much within the NHC cone out to sea and that makes it closest land approach by the Cape.

 

 

Topography of south part of Long Island must be getting a shave...

 

attachicon.gifGOES05452015275sigMK4_10_02_2am.jpg

Important to note that this is a storm that is already affecting the coastlines in the area and erosion is likely. Big surf. Maybe some good rain for SE portions too.

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