googmoog Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Down the road, what's Novie looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Playing devil's advocate here. Not surprisingly, this October so far, doesn't look good for Greenland blocking for DJF average. I gave up on trying to use the October pattern to predict the AO last winter. But in the end, it really didn't matter since the blocking over Western North America compensated for the lack of blocking on the Atlantic side. The AO and NAO have been more positive in general after March 2013. But this last summer we saw the strongest 500 mb block over parts of the Arctic on record for July. So there was a a lot of volatility this year from the winter to the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I gave up on trying to use the October pattern to predict the AO last winter. But in the end, it really didn't matter since the blocking over Western North America compensated for the lack of blocking on the Atlantic side. The AO and NAO have been more positive in general after March 2013. But this last summer we saw the strongest 500 mb block over parts of the Arctic on record for July. So there was a a lot of volatility this year from the winter to the summer. Yup. But it would be nice to see more -AO/NAO this year with more amplification and phasing possibility with the strong nino enhanced STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Down the road, what's Novie looking like? AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 we are due for an above normal November...the last three were below normal and 2011 already had a snowstorm...being due doesn't mean it will happen though...Novembers before our snowiest winters had a warm look to November...The last two years brought the average to slightly above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 if the ao is positive in December it probably will torch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Ugh not really a good morning read for a winter lover...but my thinking is mild and snowless this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Although, the AO/NAO patterns in July and this month so far seems to be decent match with July and Oct in 1957. More -AO/-NAO blocking showed up by JFM 1958: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Ugh not really a good morning read for a winter lover...but my thinking is mild and snowless this winter LOL It's October and everything is going as planned. Backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 November 57 had a negative ao but it turned positive after the early December snowstorm...It went negative in January-March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 LOL It's October and everything is going as planned. Backloaded winter. I'm hoping nowhere near last year, maybe closer to average. At least for the cold, I don't mind the snow as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I'm hoping nowhere near last year, maybe closer to average. At least for the cold, I don't mind the snow as much. Same here. I can't take bone chilling cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Ugh not really a good morning read for a winter lover...but my thinking is mild and snowless this winter This is exactly how the forecast could play out. Nov and Dec could and in my opinion (and has been in the ENSO thread ) torch and have no effect on Jan thru March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Same here. I can't take bone chilling cold. Yeah, that's why it'd be nice if we had a mild November and December. Only 3 months after that even if it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Playing devil's advocate here. Not surprisingly, this October so far, doesn't look good for Greenland blocking for DJF average.It's an opposite correlation so you want to have a +NAO in October to get a -NAO in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 It's an opposite correlation so you want to have a +NAO in October to get a -NAO in the winter. That's correct. While it isn't a robust correlation, there is an inverse correlation between the October NAO modality and ensuing DJF modality. The relationship predicts the NAO in approximately 64% of years from 1950-2015. The 500mb height pattern in the NPAC and NATL this month were fairly close to ideal in terms of correlations. Of course, they are some of the innumerable tools in the toolbox, but nonetheless, something to examine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 That's correct. While it isn't a robust correlation, there is an inverse correlation between the October NAO modality and ensuing DJF modality. The relationship predicts the NAO in approximately 64% of years from 1950-2015. The 500mb height pattern in the NPAC and NATL this month were fairly close to ideal in terms of correlations. Of course, they are some of the innumerable tools in the toolbox, but nonetheless, something to examine. Yes, having a good PAC (+PNA/-EPO)/bad ATL (+NAO) in October with significant cold shots seems to enhance the chances of a cold, stormy winter.The Pacific ridge this month has been a little bit too far east to deliver optimal cold...the strongest troughing is going to be over eastern New England and up into the Canadian Maritimes. We can see this by how quickly the cold highs have moved offshore...quick cold shot last weekend, then 70s, cold yesterday/today but 65 tomorrow. I'm hoping the entire the Aleutian low/PNA pattern retrogrades in time for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 55 out right now. actually thought it was a bit warmer. Maybe it's becaue I'm out in the yard doing some fall clean up but it feels great out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Ugh not really a good morning read for a winter lover...but my thinking is mild and snowless this winter My expectations are very low. You're always playing with fire when all bets are on a backloaded winter. Last year was as amazing as it gets in that aspect and unlikely to repeat itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 My expectations are very low. You're always playing with fire when all bets are on a backloaded winter. Last year was as amazing as it gets in that aspect and unlikely to repeat itself. Most El Nino winters are backloaded so it actually makes sense. Saw this in 57-58 (huge Feb snowstorm, twin snowfalls late Mar), 77-78 (bad Dec, decent Jan, historic blizzard and wall-to-wall cold Feb), 82-83 (record warm Dec, Megalopolis storm Feb), 94-95 (decent Feb in bad winter), 02-03 (PDII in Feb after bland Jan), 09-10 (record Feb snows after mild Jan)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 My expectations are very low. You're always playing with fire when all bets are on a backloaded winter. Last year was as amazing as it gets in that aspect and unlikely to repeat itself. 2013-14 was also backloaded in many ways, so it's happened two years in a row. December was +1 with one modest snowfall (4-8" from City to suburbs). Then, we had a much colder January with several events, an 8-10" storm on Groundhog's Day and a 12-20" storm Valentine's Day, and near record cold in March with several days staying in the 20s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Most El Nino winters are backloaded so it actually makes sense. Saw this in 57-58 (huge Feb snowstorm, twin snowfalls late Mar), 77-78 (bad Dec, decent Jan, historic blizzard and wall-to-wall cold Feb), 82-83 (record warm Dec, Megalopolis storm Feb), 94-95 (decent Feb in bad winter), 02-03 (PDII in Feb after bland Jan), 09-10 (record Feb snows after mild Jan)... I wouldn't consider 02-03 and 09-10 back-loaded winters. December 2009 had a HECS from LI southwestward - a colder than normal month - and December 2002 had a significant snowfall the first week, and a significant Christmas event. The common denominator of those two months was a -AO / -NAO in the means. Although the statistical probability of an active Nino December is quite low, it can happen given a conducive northern annular mode and north Atlantic regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I wouldn't consider 02-03 and 09-10 back-loaded winters. December 2009 had a HECS from LI southwestward - a colder than normal month - and December 2002 had a significant snowfall the first week, and a significant Christmas event. The common denominator of those two months was a -AO / -NAO in the means. Although the statistical probability of an active Nino December is quite low, it can happen given a conducive northern annular mode and north Atlantic regime. The D 09 snowstorm getting erased by the pre Xmas rainstorm followed by an AN J makes it a bookend winter for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 The D 09 snowstorm getting erased by the pre Xmas rainstorm followed by an AN J makes it a bookend winter for me. Disagree. Almost all of our December snowstorms are erased in 1 week, and January's temperatures were just marginally above normal (0 to +1). Additionally, the December 19th snowstorm was the coldest event of the winter with temperatures in the 20s. The Christmas rainstorm happened on Christmas night; I had a 7-8" depth Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Disagree. Almost all of our December snowstorms are erased in 1 week, and January's temperatures were just marginally above normal (0 to +1). Additionally, the December 19th snowstorm was the coldest event of the winter with temperatures in the 20s. The Christmas rainstorm happened on Christmas night; I had a 7-8" depth Christmas morning. So with an AN Jan after a D snowstorm and 2 in Feb , you don't classify it as a bookend or backend winter , how do you classify it ? At KNYC D 12.2 J 2.4 F 39.6 I view 09/10 as a bookend winter as there was dynamic system in D virtually nothing in J and 2 dynamic systems in F. So I can't call that wire to wire. Looks like we differ here. No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 So with an AN Jan after a D snowstorm and 2 in Feb , you don't classify it as a bookend or backend winter , how do you classify it ? A front to back winter with a break in the middle. I recorded 23" of snow total in the month of December. I've only seen a 20"+ December in one other Dec in my life (2010). That's a phenomenal month and certainly qualifies as a sufficient front part of the winter in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 A front to back winter with a break in the middle. I recorded 23" of snow total in the month of December. I've only seen a 20"+ December in one other Dec in my life (2010). That's a phenomenal month and certainly qualifies as a sufficient front part of the winter in my eyes. I would think that qualifies as bookend. Great in the front , a break then great in the back. I didn't say backend ... I don't disagree with your description of its evolution , I just thought that looks bookend to me. Not important. Let's repeat 09 in 15 and we will fight about its definition in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I would think that qualifies as bookend. Great in the front , a break then great in the back. I didn't say backend ... I don't disagree with your description of its evolution , I just thought that looks bookend to me. Not important. Let's repeat 09 in 15 and we will fight about its definition in march. Paul, long week. I was misreading "bookend" as "backend." I agree. Here's hoping it repeats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 January 2003 and 2010... 1963 had a great December and milder January but there was a great blizzard in January...February had frequent snowfalls...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Paul, long week. I was misreading "bookend" as "backend." I agree. Here's hoping it repeats. Lol. I thought I saw it your way.... all good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.