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Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

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Matt and the CWG are always conservative in general when it comes to snow. 

 

It has been my experience that Matt has been fairly aggressive with cold forecasts in the east for the winter...I know you just referred to snow but generally speaking the two go hand in hand...Sometimes, I feel like he reads the board too much. But he has definitely not been that way this year. 

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Not panic'd, relatively calm on our upcoming torch winter, LOL....in all seriousness I would be much more upbeat if it wasn't for the +QBO/low solar.  Also this nino is really really strong and only getting stronger, hard to ignore what happened in 98, regardless of where the forcing is going to setup.

 

 

 

Well, if that's true, you're dressed much too warmly for cliff diving this winter. 

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I still think the mountains rack up this winter, they should do well no matter what.

 

That's not really going out on a limb. The mountains usually get a lot of snow. 

 

Just funny how every year it seems you find the worse possible scenario when it comes to snow chances here and go with it. I guess that's the smart thing to do, then you won't be disappointed, but man the negativity gets old after a while.  

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That's not really going out on a limb. The mountains usually get a lot of snow. 

 

Just funny how every year it seems you find the worse possible scenario when it comes to snow chances here and go with it. I guess that's the smart thing to do, then you won't be disappointed, but man the negativity gets old after a while.  

 

Reason I always sound like this.... this is our 10 year running chart, look at the decline our snow totals have seen since 2004.  If we were inverted and I always sounded like this then you could gripe, but the numbers speak for themselves...

post-2311-0-30683200-1447178045_thumb.pn

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That's not really going out on a limb. The mountains usually get a lot of snow.

Just funny how every year it seems you find the worse possible scenario when it comes to snow chances here and go with it. I guess that's the smart thing to do, then you won't be disappointed, but man the negativity gets old after a while.

How about repeating the same things over and over and over all winter long. Does that ever get old?

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I know there are signs we could have a bad winter (strong el nino, questions on blocking), but we really don't know how this winter will end up. As discussed above 1 or 2 events could radically change the outcome. Honestly, seasonal forecasting is still crap.

 

But keep your heads up; we're getting a warm November and that means a cold winter..... That's as good of a forecast as any other..  

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For anyone questioning me come back with some evidence besides JB's WB forecast...these are the w-QBO, low solar nino winters...

 

Nov look familiar?  

 

DJF look snowy to you?

 

I am wrong a lot so we will shall see. 

 

Here's my concern if we roast in December. We've already had back to back winters where we threw away December and got lucky in late January/February. It doesnt hold that if we have a crappy December, in general, that we have a great winter. 

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For anyone questioning me come back with some evidence besides JB's WB forecast...these are the w-QBO, low solar nino winters...

 

Nov look familiar?  

 

DJF look snowy to you?

 

I am wrong a lot so we will shall see. 

I'll have to admit the winters you show were not good snow wise (at least for central NC). There was this one 2004 December storm; which if shifted 50 miles west would have made me happy. So even if your analogs are correct about this winter, hope is not lost. 

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20041226/

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Reason I always sound like this.... this is our 10 year running chart, look at the decline our snow totals have seen since 2004.  If we were inverted and I always sounded like this then you could gripe, but the numbers speak for themselves...

 

Your chart looks pretty cyclical to me.  This is the year the trend begins to go back up.

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fwiw, nothing has changed in my mind

the decent seasonal models still look good for the SE and MA, and mod/warm NINOs with warm Nov at BWI all yielded above average snowfall going back to the 1950's, and you can throw in 1902/1903 along with those

all of us 40S need to be patient this year and we WILL see decent snow....I'm convinced of that

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Agree on less events and thus less snowfall, unless a freak miracle happens (ala 1973, 1980, 1988).  So from what you and Bob have said we are all in agreement that this winter will lack a consistent snowy pattern and that we will need a miracle storm in Feb/March if we are to see above average snowfall.  100% agree...

How'd you get that from what I said? Haha...there's no telling if we get stuck in a dynamite pattern, but even if we don't, it doesn't mean we'll have a warm winter like the composites you posted...I am suspicious of a lot of composite analog images, especially averages of several years + months... statistically speaking the data presentation is meh. The images show evidence for basically staying in a crappy pattern all D-F. That's only happened in 2 of the last 6 Nino's for Raleigh I believe. Stay strong.

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I'll have to admit the winters you show were not good snow wise (at least for central NC). There was this one 2004 December storm; which if shifted 50 miles west would have made me happy. So even if your analogs are correct about this winter, hope is not lost. 

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20041226/

 

And others have posted analogs and evidence as to why this could be a great winter. I guess you can really find what you want to see in all these analogs and forecasts. Whatever will happen will happen. I just think it's better to just take it as we go, and not be overly pessimistic or optimistic.  

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I just can't figure out how anything ever emerges out of the ground in his yard

Certainly not snow! All kidding aside, I could absolutely see a warmer, less snowy winter this year. While not 97/98, this Nino is a whopper, and there certainly are some signals favoring warm over cold. Optimistically, I'm officially favoring a slightly colder average DJF with AN snowfall (just because of the abundance of precip events). But we really could go the other way in a hurry.

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Imo the reaction to write this winter off is unwarranted and way too soon. If we are in mid January, when the pattern should be trending colder, and we are still warm then it will be justified. However until then November should be at or above average for all of us and December should be quite toasty. I've showed why in some of my analog maps, I'll try to link to the winter forecast a friend and I made but overall things are progressing nicely. I feel quite confident we will have a warm start but by early January see a transition as the El Niño begins weakening, blocking begins to establish and the pattern shifts. When that happens we will have a good 6-8 week window from mid January to late February for snow. With an active STJ this won't be a problem when the cold comes.

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How'd you get that from what I said? Haha...there's no telling if we get stuck in a dynamite pattern, but even if we don't, it doesn't mean we'll have a warm winter like the composites you posted...I am suspicious of a lot of composite analog images, especially averages of several years + months... statistically speaking the data presentation is meh. The images show evidence for basically staying in a crappy pattern all D-F. That's only happened in 2 of the last 6 Nino's for Raleigh I believe. Stay strong.

 

Well I guess Nov 98 was the exact opposite of what we are seeing now, so we got that going for us... :lmao:

 

Recent Ninos/snowfall, 2 avg and 5 duds... :bag:

 

09/10 (9")

06/07 (1.6") 

04/05 (0.9")

02/03 (7.4")

97/98 (2.5")

94/95 (2.2")

91/92 (0")

 

I am nino'd out, that's for sure, can't wait until next years raging Nina with a SE ridge of death, oh wait we have the SER this winter too.

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Imo the reaction to write this winter off is unwarranted and way too soon. If we are in mid January, when the pattern should be trending colder, and we are still warm then it will be justified. However until then November should be at or above average for all of us and December should be quite toasty. I've showed why in some of my analog maps, I'll try to link to the winter forecast a friend and I made but overall things are progressing nicely. I feel quite confident we will have a warm start but by early January see a transition as the El Niño begins weakening, blocking begins to establish and the pattern shifts. When that happens we will have a good 6-8 week window from mid January to late February for snow. With an active STJ this won't be a problem when the cold comes.

 

Good luck with this, I personally will be rooting for you....

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Well I guess Nov 98 was the exact opposite of what we are seeing now, so we got that going for us... :lmao:

 

Recent Ninos/snowfall, 2 avg and 5 duds... :bag:

 

09/10 (9")

06/07 (1.6") 

04/05 (0.9")

02/03 (7.4")

97/98 (2.5")

94/95 (2.2")

91/92 (0")

 

I am nino'd out, that's for sure, can't wait until next years raging Nina with a SE ridge of death, oh wait we have the SER this winter too.

Last 5 Strong Nino's snowfall:

 

Raleigh, NC

1957-1958: 7.9"

1965-1966: 11.8"

1972-1973: 11.3"

1982-1983: 11.8"

1991-1992: 0"

1997-1998: 2.4"

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Last 5 Strong Nino's snowfall:

 

Raleigh, NC

1957-1958: 7.9"

1965-1966: 11.8"

1972-1973: 11.3"

1982-1983: 11.8"

1991-1992: 0"

1997-1998: 2.4"

 

We shall see, I think we are AN temps and below avg snowfall (0 to 2F) and (4-6").  Although 4-6" maybe high.  I see something similar to last winter, sucky Dec/Jan with a somewhat wintery couple of weeks in Feb, although not near as cold.   Last winter we were at Feb 20th with 1" of snow on the season, LOL.  

 

As Mr T said...

 

 

post-2311-0-25041500-1447186279_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-65368300-1447186283_thumb.pn

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