Winter 15-16 Discussion

[DixieBlizzard]

Signs overwhelming do not support a cold southeast. Sure we can find a few models to show what we want but the majority don't support what some of you are hoping for.

 

I am curious as to what models are not showing a "colder" than normal southeast. From what I have seen, it's almost been a consensus for a stormy and cold winter, especially the latter half.

[MichaelJ]

You guys are getting trolled SO hard

[Cold Rain]

^ Exactly.  Guys, you know Marietta always says the opposite of the consensus, right?  If everyone was wanting and calling for a warm winter, he would go cold, just to get a rise out of people.  I wouldn't worry about it, especially if there is no data presented to back it up.

 

Personally, I think the bust potential is high either way.  The strong El Nino aruges for a cooler than normal southeast, with normal to above normal precip.  It would also suggest that the latter half of the winter might be the coolest part.  Some models suggest this.  The CFS likes a torch winter.  The UK, I believe, looks pretty cold.  Other factors, like a strengthening +PDO, SAI/SCE, cold pool in the North Atlantic, Solar, etc., say we shouldn't torch, and in some respects argue for a colder winter than you might think than with a strong Nino.  But, one also might think that the strong Nino would be the strongest signal, so it may indeed overwhelm the pattern at times...or the majority of the time.

 

In my mind, the most logical/reasonable forecast would have the SE at -1 (with some portions slightly colder) or so for the winter and normal snowfall (but with a pretty broad area where the potential is elevated for above normal), with an increased chance of a bigger/widespread event, something like my official winter forecast (here):

 

Temps:

 

 

Precip:

 

 

Snowfall:

 

[DixieBlizzard]

I didn't know that was Marietta. Back to regularly scheduled programming.

[LithiaWx]

Go read the TN forum. Mr bob and Jeff both are in the energy forecasting business (lots of money and their credibility on the line)and both aren't going cold. They both have extensive posts explaining why.

I'll take the word of energy met over a blogger met 10 times out of 10. Hype sells as a blogger. You can't do that in the real world.

[dsaur]

I am curious as to what models are not showing a "colder" than normal southeast. From what I have seen, it's almost been a consensus for a stormy and cold winter, especially the latter half.

The Tony index is showing exceptional cold, and precip south of I 20, in the forgotten lands, and much above normal heat, and low precip north of I 20, lol.  Ulls will pull down the trough cross into Ga around LaGrange, then dissipate somewhere over there to the east after dumping huge amounts of drifting sleet   This will cause much consternation and knashing of teeth north of the Hooch!  Sorry, Greg, but there it is

  Actually, for what it's worth, the moles are growing heavy winter coats and rain hats, and the spider webs are of only nominal length this fall, so the odds are favorable for colder than normal, but not super so, and way above normal precip...so it looks good, particularly down here, lol. 

   The truth is I'm getting the rain hammer now for months, and I'm expecting some good rains this winter.  It's the deep south, so a lot will be cold rain, but some better chances for the goodies, than in a while down here....if we get blocking, and some reinforcing cold.T

[LithiaWx]

The Tony index is showing exceptional cold, and precip south of I 20, in the forgotten lands, and much above normal heat, and low precip north of I 20, lol. Ulls will pull down the trough cross into Ga around LaGrange, then dissipate somewhere over there to the east after dumping huge amounts of drifting sleet This will cause much consternation and knashing of teeth north of the Hooch! Sorry, Greg, but there it is

Actually, for what it's worth, the moles are growing heavy winter coats and rain hats, and the spider webs are of only nominal length this fall, so the odds are favorable for colder than normal, but not super so, and way above normal precip...so it looks good, particularly down here, lol.

The truth is I'm getting the rain hammer now for months, and I'm expecting some good rains this winter. It's the deep south, so a lot will be cold rain, but some better chances for the goodies, than in a while down here....if we get blocking, and some reinforcing cold.T

I've joined you south of 20. Granted I'm pretty much just south of 20 but I'm now south of where rain/snow usually sets up.

[mackerel_sky]

^ Exactly. Guys, you know Marietta always says the opposite of the consensus, right? If everyone was wanting and calling for a warm winter, he would go cold, just to get a rise out of people. I wouldn't worry about it, especially if there is no data presented to back it up.

Personally, I think the bust potential is high either way. The strong El Nino aruges for a cooler than normal southeast, with normal to above normal precip. It would also suggest that the latter half of the winter might be the coolest part. Some models suggest this. The CFS likes a torch winter. The UK, I believe, looks pretty cold. Other factors, like a strengthening +PDO, SAI/SCE, cold pool in the North Atlantic, Solar, etc., say we shouldn't torch, and in some respects argue for a colder winter than you might think than with a strong Nino. But, one also might think that the strong Nino would be the strongest signal, so it may indeed overwhelm the pattern at times...or the majority of the time.

In my mind, the most logical/reasonable forecast would have the SE at -1 (with some portions slightly colder) or so for the winter and normal snowfall (but with a pretty broad area where the potential is elevated for above normal), with an increased chance of a bigger/widespread event, something like my official winter forecast (here):

Temps:

Winter2015Temps.jpg

Precip:

Winter2015Precip.jpg

Snowfall:

Winter2015Snowfall.jpg

I guess when you draw your own maps, your backyard can get the -2 temps, juuuust to your house!!!? And the above normal snow? That's just cold, a cold rain! How's rain_cold? Give Wilksdud his ms paint back!

[Cold Rain]

I guess when you draw your own maps, your backyard can get the -2 temps, juuuust to your house!!!? And the above normal snow? That's just cold, a cold rain! How's rain_cold? Give Wilksdud his ms paint back!

 

Lol...that's just the way it goes, man!  If you will zoom in, you will see that my house is neither in the coldest or snowiest anomalies.  MS paint is awesome.

[dsaur]

I've joined you south of 20. Granted I'm pretty much just south of 20 but I'm now south of where rain/snow usually sets up.

Why are you moving so much May retta?  Actually, I think you have a better chance for the hammer now, than you did up in Marietta.  You always got any flakes that fell up there, but I've seen way deeper stuff since I moved out of midtown...just not as often as I'd like since the 80's, lol.  Looks like you'll probably get what comes out of Carrollton, and they do pretty well on average...as well as can be hoped for in the deep south, lol.  The 80's had some great storms down here, but I don't know how Carrollton did.  It's a matter of being close enough to the heat machine to get the good precip, but needing some good blocking to keep the cold fetch coming down to keep the upper levels cold enough.  Always a dance down here, but you are close enough to Ala to be in the good zone, I expect, when we get a reversal from the past few decades or more. 

  If nothing else you can go to 6 flags a lot, and pretend you are sledding, lol. I've often thought those water slides would be killer with zrain on them, lol.  Maybe actually killers, but it would be wild until the blackout T

[NCummingWx93]

Lol...that's just the way it goes, man!  If you will zoom in, you will see that my house is neither in the coldest or snowiest anomalies.  MS paint is awesome.

You have it where the counties don't show in your snowfall maps, how could you? lol. Pretty sure it is to my north though.

[FallsLake]

Lol...that's just the way it goes, man!  If you will zoom in, you will see that my house is neither in the coldest or snowiest anomalies.  MS paint is awesome.

I'm going to make my own map and put my backyard in 800% normal snow and -10 temp averages. But, I'll have it drop to 0% snow right before it gets to Brick's house.

[mackerel_sky]

I'm going to make my own map and put my backyard in 800% normal snow and -10 temp averages. But, I'll have it drop to 0% snow right before it gets to Brick's house.

800%??? Are your initials JB?

[FallsLake]

800%??? Are your initials JB?

No, if I was JB I wouldn't show any snow outside the big cities..

[HKY_WX]

The reason for anomalies like this over Canada is due to the extreme blocking forcing the cold air south. Instead of staying bottled up in Canada it amplifies the flow and forces the cold air south. At the same time they'll be warm due to this blocking but we would be quite cold.

This.  Negative anomalies over canada are usually a bad sign and indicative of a +AO. The reason the anomalies are warmer in Canada is b/c the cold air is displaced to the south of it.

[NCummingWx93]

This.  Negative anomalies over canada are usually a bad sign and indicative of a +AO. The reason the anomalies are warmer in Canada is b/c the cold air is displaced to the south of it.

In case you have any way of knowing, do you think this winter will feature more than average wedges with potential icestorms? I know it seems like this fall we've been getting alot and are currently in one.

[griteater]

+QBO Nov Nino's....hmmmmm

Could be a pretty good forecast package.  +AO/+NAO and warm Dec, transitioning to wintry in the 2nd half...time will tell

[griteater]

Grit - interesting the NPac low is so much stronger in +QBO v/s -QBO winters....I wonder why, I know it's a small sample size.

My thought is that the nino strength & base, and PDO, have more influence on the location and strength of the NPac low.  The -PDO / Nino winters of 65-66, 68-69, and 72-73 didn't feature the classic nino NPac low.  Anyway, I put this together last year (I have some years in multiple composites where the nino was borderline based on ONI + MEI)

 

[DixieBlizzard]

The Tony index is showing exceptional cold, and precip south of I 20, in the forgotten lands, and much above normal heat, and low precip north of I 20, lol.  Ulls will pull down the trough cross into Ga around LaGrange, then dissipate somewhere over there to the east after dumping huge amounts of drifting sleet   This will cause much consternation and knashing of teeth north of the Hooch!  Sorry, Greg, but there it is

  Actually, for what it's worth, the moles are growing heavy winter coats and rain hats, and the spider webs are of only nominal length this fall, so the odds are favorable for colder than normal, but not super so, and way above normal precip...so it looks good, particularly down here, lol. 

   The truth is I'm getting the rain hammer now for months, and I'm expecting some good rains this winter.  It's the deep south, so a lot will be cold rain, but some better chances for the goodies, than in a while down here....if we get blocking, and some reinforcing cold.T

 

Actually remember a couple of winters that way growing up in Birmingham. Snow to the south and dry where you are is pretty dang frustrating although you admire the rarity of it at the same time.

 

This seems to be a good year for the folks that are in the wedge areas it would seem.

[Upstate Tiger]

Upstate NBC affiliate WYFF has issued their Winter 2016 Outlook.  Chris and John are going with above average snowfall for the mountains and upstate citing strong El Nino and negative NAO.  Hope they're right!  Hopefully Chris does not get any death threats this year if this doesn't pan out!

 

http://www.wyff4.com/news/john-and-chris-winter-weather-predictions/36263976

[MichaelJ]

CPC SST analogs are out and look good for us: Ist map is SST, 2nd map is JFM 2016 temps, 3rd map is Precipitation DJF and last map is temps for DJF period (sorry got them out of sequence)

 

[Cold Rain]

^ Check please!

[No snow for you]

^ Check please!

 

And don't forget to tip

[packbacker]

^ Check please!

Yep, that wouldn't be a matter of if we snow it would be how much. Hard to imagine it being right though, it's almost a perfect setup.

[tonysc]

Upstate NBC affiliate WYFF has issued their Winter 2016 Outlook.  Chris and John are going with above average snowfall for the mountains and upstate citing strong El Nino and negative NAO.  Hope they're right!  Hopefully Chris does not get any death threats this year if this doesn't pan out!

 

http://www.wyff4.com/news/john-and-chris-winter-weather-predictions/36263976

Wow, I really like that forecast, I'm right in the well above average area.

[Cold Rain]

Yep, that wouldn't be a matter of if we snow it would be how much. Hard to imagine it being right though, it's almost a perfect setup.

Yup...best maps ever!

[image]

 

And don't forget to tip

That's worth 20% at least!

[LithiaWx]

One positive I see moving into winter is the mild start. I was attacked for my thoughts last year when I said it was a bad sign to start so cold, so early. Patterns are cyclical, they tend to bounce from one end of the spectrum to the other. Give me all the warm weather we can find until around December 1st, at that point if the cold isn't coming you start eating away at our possible snow window.

[jburns]

One positive I see moving into winter is the mild start. I was attacked for my thoughts last year when I said it was a bad sign to start so cold, so early. Patterns are cyclical, they tend to bounce from one end of the spectrum to the other. Give me all the warm weather we can find until around December 1st, at that point if the cold isn't coming you start eating away at our possible snow window.

 

Rare photo of snow window at your new location.

 

[LithiaWx]

Rare photo of snow window at your new location.

 

Yeah, that's pretty funny. Sadly, I do think my window got smaller.

[snowlover91]

One positive I see moving into winter is the mild start. I was attacked for my thoughts last year when I said it was a bad sign to start so cold, so early. Patterns are cyclical, they tend to bounce from one end of the spectrum to the other. Give me all the warm weather we can find until around December 1st, at that point if the cold isn't coming you start eating away at our possible snow window.

Based on what I've seen I'm thinking a warm November, torch for December then a switch by early January. I wouldn't expect much until mid January then we should start having chances and February looks to be the money month similar to recent years.