IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Not going to be a good NAM run, can already see that it's more progressive this run which isn't going to allow for the trailing energy to phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 The way this thread has been going, one would think we are tracking a blizzard or a hurricane lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Not going to be a good NAM run, can already see that it's more progressive this run which isn't going to allow for the trailing energy to phase in. Good for those of us who do not want rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 0z ECMWF run has the low right at the VA/NC border at 0z Saturday and just SE of the benchmark at 0z sunday. Seems much slower this run. Also looks like a miss for most of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 0z GFS run has no precip in the NYC metro area from what i saw. The low is also weaker than the 0z euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Not going to be a good NAM run, can already see that it's more progressive this run which isn't going to allow for the trailing energy to phase in. The 0z OP Euro broke toward the ensembles which are more SE. We have been seeing the OP too amped up with systems at times while the ensembles haven't been agreeing. The faux tropical spin up off the SE Coast last week was a perfect example of the OP having no support and the weaker ensembles winning out. But when the ensembles and OP agree on a big storm it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Next weeks storm has a lot of ensemble support. Euro had 2-5" of rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Finally a below average minimum at the park. 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Next weeks storm has a lot of ensemble support. Euro had 2-5" of rain for the area. Euro has been over amplified since last October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Impressive 30 degree diurnal range. 87.5F yesterday to 57.5F this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Euro has been over amplified since last October. Yea it lost some of its reputation over the last 7 or 8 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Impressive 30 degree diurnal range. 87.5F yesterday to 57.5F this morning. Even the park cooled down to a decent number (for the park, that is.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Euro has been over amplified since last October. The OP Euro periodically has had problems with certain types of weather patterns. It had a great season 09-10 with the strong southern stream and El Nino. But it struggled during the La Nina in December 2010 with the false storm signals before Boxing Day and missing that Friday run before the blizzard. It nailed the February 2013 Blizzard phase. But the good thing is that we can usually detect it's off when the OP doesn't have ensemble support. We'll see how things go when it get a resolution upgrade in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Euro has been over amplified since last October. Maybe so, but this threat next week has been well advertised and it's supported by the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Lol how did last 2 so called storms turn out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Lol how did last 2 so called storms turn out It happens during Winter too, that doesn't mean that we go the entire Winter without a decent storm. I supposed we could but the odds are low. For every five modeled threats during Winter we get lucky if one ends up close to what was shown. I admit that my confidence is below average given recent blunders. Here is the 00z UKMET which shows an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 As far as this weekend is concerned, typically during Winter the UKMET has a Southeast bias which would in this case be a red flag that the models were too far South. I am not sure if that bias is applicable in this case or not, but then again this system is more typical of cold season than early August so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 WPC likes early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 The euro has been horrible with east coast storms for the last two years, it's not longer deadly inside 72 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 The OP Euro periodically has had problems with certain types of weather patterns. It had a great season 09-10 with the strong southern stream and El Nino. But it struggled during the La Nina in December 2010 with the false storm signals before Boxing Day and missing that Friday run before the blizzard. It nailed the February 2013 Blizzard phase. But the good thing is that we can usually detect it's off when the OP doesn't have ensemble support. We'll see how things go when it get a resolution upgrade in 2016. I thought last year it was horrible for east coast snowstorm threats. Countless number of times I asked myself why I was paying for it during the past winter. It was the last to cave for the blizzard bust at the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Maybe so, but this threat next week has been well advertised and it's supported by the ensembles. Euro ensembles are influenced by the op. If the op is over amplified, the ensemble mean usually is also. Especially inside of 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 I thought last year it was horrible for east coast snowstorm threats. Countless number of times I asked myself why I was paying for it during the past winter. It was the last to cave for the blizzard bust at the end of January. It was probably a function of the split flow and active northern branch dominating the pattern. We saw this with the famous March 2009 storm that never panned out also. People were annoyed with the late January event but it only missed the 20" line by something like 50-75 miles which really wasn't that terrible. The Jackpot ended up over Suffolk instead of closer to NYC like it was showing days before. People wouldn't really notice if the storm was rain and NYC got closer to an inch of rain instead of two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 I thought last year it was horrible for east coast snowstorm threats. Countless number of times I asked myself why I was paying for it during the past winter. It was the last to cave for the blizzard bust at the end of January. There's no point of paying for it anymore. Inside of 48 hours, Rgem is in a class of its own and outside of 48 hours, a combo of the free models are better then the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Euro ensembles are influenced by the op. If the op is over amplified, the ensemble mean usually is also. Especially inside of 120 hours. Since when? I've never heard anyone say that. In fact, usually when the OP is over amplified the ensembles will disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Since when? I've never heard anyone say that. In fact, usually when the OP is over amplified the ensembles will disagree. I specifically said inside of 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 There's no point of paying for it anymore. Inside of 48 hours, Rgem is in a class of its own and outside of 48 hours, a combo of the free models are better then the euro. The only point to ever pay for the Euro was to have it before everyone else does. Otherwise most of the time you can just come on here and get the Euro info from someone else. tropicaltidbits.com is a pretty good website with a lot of free, useful model graphics. Before that the main free options were the horrid NCEP site and the old e-wall graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 the euro is better in -nao patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 I specifically said inside of 120 hours. What kind of data do you have to back that up? I've never heard of such a thing. Go with the Euro ensembles and 9/10 you will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 There's no point of paying for it anymore. Inside of 48 hours, Rgem is in a class of its own and outside of 48 hours, a combo of the free models are better then the euro. It still beats all the other global models in the overall verification scores. But being the best doesn't mean perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Everyone keeps praising the GFS like it's some great model. No doubt the recent upgrades have improved it, but I still have a hard time trusting it. I've seen how bad it has been insisting on misses only to cave within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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