HoarfrostHubb Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Those of us in west bum**** don't count.What is your high since May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 What is your high since May? 86/87 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 88°F up here at the north pole was the high so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I believe All of those hill towns listed there will hit 90 at least once. Could be close on a couple of days but we'll see how things break. Next week is make or break for the month to wind up above normal here. Currently siting at 1.2° below the long term normal here and #9 coolest July since 1985. I still say we wind up below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 They're pretty hot for a couple of days this far out. It's nothing epic or record breaking, but probably the hottest of the season for most spots. It's a far cry from this... eurohot850s.png Agreed - although, the 00z GFSX MOS product put up a 94 at FIT for D6 ...way out ahead of CLIMO and 11 or 12 above, which is a helluva lot of normalization to overcome to still go that hefty. Code for a pattern supportive of upper 90's ... Trouble is, I can't find GFSX synoptic charts. I've asked on this board numerous times but no one even responds... Maybe they don't exist for the public -- anyway, the Euro has a pretty classic looking Plateau/Sonoran release that goes up to Lake Superior/W. Ontario and then descends from a ML NW trajectory, which is bona fide firecracker heat for New England - it's how we get our hottest temperatures. Granted, we are talking D6 here so modification can and likely will happen, but sufficed it is to say ...if that stays, could be one super spike in the longer term graphical layout of diurnal realizations to put it nicely... Probably be something like ... 91, 101, 89 (broken up by convection) if employing the giant ballz rip and read - For now, and based upon seasonal results? I'm going to go with the realization engineering any way physically imaginable to off-set the larger physical picture and assume something less than triple digits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Heh, ... almost not surprising ... the 12z Euro backed off the length and amplitude of heat by a couple/several ticks... The model's been doing this for days, actually ... sloshing madly between 00z and 12z, where the former is quite a bit hotter and has sustained a bit more 'heat dome-like' ridging than the 12z versions; which are always a bit more transiently brief with all features contributing to the heat. The GFS' has also sloshed, but not as regularly per run. It seems to go on these benders one way or the other that last several cycles before yo-yoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 This run is still pretty damn hot...not really worth nitpicking at d5-7. Still some 20-21C 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Heh, ... almost not surprising ... the 12z Euro backed off the length and amplitude of heat by a couple/several ticks... The model's been doing this for days, actually ... sloshing madly between 00z and 12z, where the former is quite a bit hotter and has sustained a bit more 'heat dome-like' ridging than the 12z versions; which are always a bit more transiently brief with all features contributing to the heat. The GFS' has also sloshed, but not as regularly per run. It seems to go on these benders one way or the other that last several cycles before yo-yoing. The trend this summer has been for the ridges to keep retrograding back into the SW US as we get closer. They haven't been overly strong there either as unseasonal troughiness has intruded into SCal from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 May is now a summer month Recorded highs at my place of 83, 84, 84, 85 in May, have not been that warm since. Maybe next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 The trend this summer has been for the ridges to keep retrograding back into the SW US as we get closer. They haven't been overly strong there either as unseasonal troughiness has intruded into SCal from time to time. Exactly! Remarkable how consistent that has been -- and it's almost been a dependable model correction: D8 20+C dragon fart and 590 Heights to ALB, ...collapsing down to Georgia by D3/4. It'll be a wonder if one actually makes it this time. I just I don't know I think we're in a semi-CLIMATE mode, and these tend to last a couple of years at a pop before changing. The 3-5 years stints... We had one in the mid 2000s ...in that '04 - 8 or 9 range. Then we went balls warm for years... It all seems to end in the summer of 2013 and it's been finding the coolest realization relative to a modeling appeal like that, as least excuse imaginable, ever since. These periods make the chapters in a 30 -year, it seems. Now, we cool... Doesn't mean we can't be hot - per se - from time to time, but I bet it isnt' the longer term verification trend. At least for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Exactly! Remarkable how consistent that has been -- and it's almost been a dependable model correction: D8 20+C dragon fart and 590 Heights to ALB, ...collapsing down to Georgia by D3/4. It'll be a wonder if one actually makes it this time. I just I don't know I think we're in a semi-CLIMATE mode, and these tend to last a couple of years at a pop before changing. The 3-5 years stints... We had one in the mid 2000s ...in that '04 - 8 or 9 range. Then we went balls warm for years... It all seems to end in the summer of 2013 and it's been finding the coolest realization relative to a modeling appeal like that, as least excuse imaginable, ever since. These periods make the chapters in a 30 -year, it seems. Now, we cool... Doesn't mean we can't be hot - per se - from time to time, but I bet it isnt' the longer term verification trend. At least for the time being. I think it will do better than the previous ones. This one seems to have a bit better support, though we're still 5-6 days out. We'll probably grab our hottest day of the year out of this one (though that isn't saying much this summer) if I had to guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 This run is still pretty damn hot...not really worth nitpicking at d5-7. Still some 20-21C 850s. I dunno dude... Ur right - it's day 6/7, and sure it does have some still, but it doesn't come along with the same panache as it depicted in the prior cycles. And the periodicity of more than less"character" of the warm-up has been oscillatory in the model. That, combined with seasonal trend... I just wouldn't get to excited just yet for those jones for a summer heat wave. It seems noteworthy enough that trend alone questions those hotter looks. We'll see.. 12z GFSX MOS is still bangin' away with 93F for KFIT next Wednesday, a solid 5 days out into the murky realm of normalization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I tell ya tho - one thing that does show up here is that the longer term geopotential medium is higher everywhere by the end of most guidance I have seen. hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I dunno dude... Ur right - it's day 6/7, and sure it does have some still, but it doesn't come along with the same panache as it depicted in the prior cycles. And the periodicity of more than less"character" of the warm-up has been oscillatory in the model. That, combined with seasonal trend... I just wouldn't get to excited just yet for those jones for a summer heat wave. It seems noteworthy enough that trend alone questions those hotter looks. We'll see.. 12z GFSX MOS is still bangin' away with 93F for KFIT next Wednesday, a solid 5 days out into the murky realm of normalization. The 12z GFS is pretty hot on Thu afternoon too. We'll see. Pretty weenieish 2m temps at d6 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 The 12z GFS is pretty hot on Thu afternoon too. We'll see. gfs850temps072412z153hr.gif Pretty weenieish 2m temps at d6 too. EPS just came in very tepid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 EPS just came in very tepid 18C+ on a 51 member d6-7 ens mean is tepid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 18C+ on a 51 member d6-7 ens mean is tepid? yea if you are looking for upper 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 yea if you are looking for upper 90s Too early to analyze it that much. It looks like the hottest of the season right now though like Will said...not that it would take that much since even the torch spots have barely gotten above 90F this warm season. It's a little under a week away so I'm sure something will muck it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Too early to analyze it that much. It looks like the hottest of the season right now though like Will said...not that it would take that much since even the torch spots have barely gotten above 90F this warm season. It's a little under a week away so I'm sure something will muck it up. not to be a jerk but as Will was just saying... oh, right - you said that. haha, what would it take to be the "hottest of the season" is this candy azz woos bag waste of time summer - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Too early to analyze it that much. It looks like the hottest of the season right now though like Will said...not that it would take that much since even the torch spots have barely gotten above 90F this warm season. It's a little under a week away so I'm sure something will muck it up. just saying, it is tepid compared to the southern Ohio valley as it moves east it drops 3-4 degrees C, so we end up with a couple of days with the normal hot spots low 90s, not some furnace for 3-5 days as portrayed. something to watch the next couple of days. the pattern this year has been lots of pimping 5-7 day lead heat waves and severe threats only to tamper them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Will did post pre EPS release too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Persistence has been remarkable, semi permanent features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2015 Author Share Posted July 24, 2015 Be careful toning the heat down. This is right out of MEX and Texas. This thing is likely to bring in 95-100 degree heat . Not much cooling behind the front. Just less hot too. Big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2015 Author Share Posted July 24, 2015 Ryan still hitting heat hard . Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Ryan still hitting heat hard . Wow rip and read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Be careful toning the heat down. This is right out of MEX and Texas. This thing is likely to bring in 95-100 degree heat . Not much cooling behind the front. Just less hot too. Big changes Sonorian heat release? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Ryan still hitting heat hard . Wow I kept the same forecast from yesterday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2015 Author Share Posted July 24, 2015 I kept the same forecast from yesterday lol Yeah I saw lol. Ginx trying to tame down the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Yeah I saw lol. Ginx trying to tame down the torch Ginx never made a forecast only reported what the Euro Ens showed, try again humpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 GFS advertising 3 days of heat but dry heat, we like dry heat Tuesday 90/58 Wed 94/56 Thursday 93/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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