IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Some models have us getting an MCS that comes all the way from the plains on Thursday, we'll see what the trends are as we move forward. The 00z NAM was very bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 00z GFS has the storms for Thursday night and Saturday is basically a washout. The culprit is a 500mb low that closes off over the Ohio Valley with various low pressure systems rotating around it. It almost forms a miller B on Saturday night. GFS has 2M temps struggling to hit 60F for a high on Saturday with even some 40's showing up over upstate NY. Very unusual for this time of year of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 00z GFS has the storms for Thursday night and Saturday is basically a washout. The culprit is a 500mb low that closes off over the Ohio Valley with various low pressure systems rotating around it. It almost forms a miller B on Saturday night. GFS has 2M temps struggling to hit 60F for a high on Saturday with even some 40's showing up over upstate NY. Very unusual for this time of year of course. Supposed to go on a long-planned trip to Hershey Park on Saturday. Hoping the weather is a bit better further inland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 KNYC had its first 90. Bout time, was getting absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 This weekend's ECMWF features a closed 500 mb low in the eastern U.S. and a largely high amplitude upper air pattern. Can someone tell me what season this is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 6z GFS shows that before mentioned MCS getting all the way to us Thursday night, Friday morning. And it also shows that closed off 500 mb low for the weekend. Looks more for later Saturday into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Classic June El Nino pattern here with the composite plus trend resulting in the cooler over New England /Great Lakes and warmer Mid-Atlantic /Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 CMC is showing the same thing but 6 to 12 hours slower from what I see for thursday and the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Pleasant morning weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 66 gorgeous degrees in Dobbs Ferry...all traces of humidity gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 More looks at the system for Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Yesterdays Highs TEB: 92 NYC: 90 EWR: 93 LGA: 92 JFK: 89 ISP: 84 New Brunswick: 91 BLM:91 TTN: 91 PHL: 95 ACY: 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Through 6/23 NYC: +0.5 EWR: +0.5 LGA: -0.3 JFK: +1.4 TTN: +2.2 PHL: +2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Yesterdays Highs TEB: 92 NYC: 90 EWR: 93 LGA: 92 JFK: 89 ISP: 84 New Brunswick: 91 BLM:91 TTN: 91 PHL: 95 ACY: 94 Newark has a few more 90 degree days this June compared to last year, but we won't be able to get in two major 95+ days this year before July 4th. We are heading into a cooler pattern now as opposed the warmer one last year that produced a 95 and 96 on the first two days of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Newark has a few more 90 degree days this June compared to last year, but we won't be able to get in two major 95+ days this year before July 4th. We are heading into a cooler pattern now as opposed the warmer one last year that produced a 95 and 96 on the first two days of July. Posting in the 4th of July tracking, ridge-west / trough east continues to e the theme next 10 to 2 weeks. It does looks like the WAR and SE ridge to offer resistance and allow the trough to retreat west but no real ridging into the northeast. I think if times right we can get some warm days but no strong heat. Perhaps this will be more like later heat end of July August ala 2001 and 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I have to think most sites are well ahead of the cooler years (14, 09, 04, 96) to this point in 80(+) degree days with the record May. Not that its a real telling indicator of summer. But i think it would be interesting to tally those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Through 6/23 NYC: +0.5 EWR: +0.5 LGA: -0.3 JFK: +1.4 TTN: +2.2 PHL: +2.8 A couple average days now before we go negative again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 66 gorgeous degrees in Dobbs Ferry...all traces of humidity gone. They don't make'em much better than this. A splendid California morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I have to think most sites are well ahead of the cooler years (14, 09, 04, 96) to this point in 80(+) degree days with the record May. Not that its a real telling indicator of summer. But i think it would be interesting to tally those. Yeah, this June wasn't cool like June 2009 for EWR which only reached 89 and finished -3.0. The highs were so muted in 2009 that the high temperature departure of -3.9 really drove the cold departures that month. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-DBA96933-C96E-4E2A-A66F-74F988ED23D0.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Beautiful morning. Less humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Beautiful morning. Less humidity. The perfect climate for me would be this every day but I could drive to snow whenever I wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The perfect climate for me would be this every day but I could drive to snow whenever I wanted. California should be your destination then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The perfect climate for me would be this every day but I could drive to snow whenever I wanted.the tropical west pac has the best climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 We seem to be in the bullseye for tomorrow night. 09z SREF mean has 1.50-1.75" of rain centered right over the entire region. The 12z NAM has 2-2.50" of rain right over NNJ into NYC and Western LI. Very good model agreement this far out. The convection initiates near Detroit tomorrow afternoon and comes right across into our area after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 We could see some firehose type convection in off the ocean on Saturday night with the closed low over the Ohio Valley and the big amplified trough in place. It's not often that you get a negatively tilted trough during the last week of June. Some models even develop a secondary wave of low pressure that tracks inland over LI. We've done very well historically with setups like these as far as widepsread excessive rains are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 that system has trended north. we might be able to salvage sunday if we get into the dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 If the GFS is correct, some areas with the rain on Saturday could be stuck in the 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Man that bow echo looked insane last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 If the GFS is correct, some areas with the rain on Sunday could be stuck in the 50's that's Saturday... it shows 80's for us Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 that system has trended north. we might be able to salvage sunday if we get into the dry slot The 00z Euro is an all out soaker for most of Saturday and we do eventually dry slot on Sunday with clouds and temps in the 50/60's. If you want to call that salvaging Sunday then have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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