Hoosier Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I like this chart...it doesn't necessarily tell you precisely how strong each event is/was, but gives you an idea of how the warm anomalies are distributed in the central/eastern Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 preach @antmasiello If Nino typically peaks in Nov-Dec and that's what we're doing, then how the hell can people be predicting an early demise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 preach Facts tend to get ignored sometimes when you want a certain thing to happen. HM is totally correct, this is peaking just like 97 did with respect to time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Weenies gonna weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snohio Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 So what's the good word on El Nino this year? I moved here to Akron from Florida a few years ago and the winters here are brutal. I know it's not gonna be much but will El Nino bring some warmer weather and less snow to Ohio? I'd even settle for a degree or two warmer lol. I'll take what I can get. I don't know about El Nino, but if it makes you feel better the last two winters were unusually harsh. It gets cold in the winter but the last two were pretty historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I like this chart...it doesn't necessarily tell you precisely how strong each event is/was, but gives you an idea of how the warm anomalies are distributed in the central/eastern Pacific. enso.png I too like this chart. The one item which sticks out to me is the amount of potential energy sitting out there in the Pacific and how its still increasing. Once again even here we are heading into unknown territories wrt a basin wide flat line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Great chart, Hoosier. Trend seems incredibly similar to 82-83 so far, only shifted earlier slightly. But we really are in unchartered territory, so it's tough to say if it means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 The trans-Nino index (TNI) also quantifies the anomaly distribution like this. 97-98 had a ridiculously high TNI (meaning more "east-based") October values for... 2015: 0.077 1997: 2.944 Here's the linear correlation between TNI and precip. It's fairly classic el Nino, especially over the west coast. But with this year's TNI so low, I do wonder if the precip anomalies will migrate further north in California compared to what this image shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Impressive weekly readings on the latest update. Region 4 is up to +1.7C, a record high reading for the data set, and region 3.4 is up to +2.8C. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Impressive weekly readings on the latest update. Region 4 is up to +1.7C, a record high reading for the data set, and region 3.4 is up to +2.8C. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The trans-Nino index (TNI) also quantifies the anomaly distribution like this. 97-98 had a ridiculously high TNI (meaning more "east-based") October values for... 2015: 0.077 1997: 2.944 Here's the linear correlation between TNI and precip. It's fairly classic el Nino, especially over the west coast. But with this year's TNI so low, I do wonder if the precip anomalies will migrate further north in California compared to what this image shows. 140.90.75.204.311.19.58.25.gif Not sure how useful TNI will be in this case, given the outlier nature of the Nino and the (very) warm eastern Pacific. Nino 1+2 was still 2.1C on the last weekly reading (a number I expect will bottom soon and start rising again as the latest big EKW pushes further east), so this is quite warm -- in fact Nino 1+2 was the second warmest on record for October. This is something that is easy to forget with 3, 3.4 and 4 blowtorching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Impressive weekly readings on the latest update. Region 4 is up to +1.7C, a record high reading for the data set, and region 3.4 is up to +2.8C. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for That 3.4 reading of 2.8C ties 1997's highest weekly reading. It's possible we break that this month. The 1.7C reading in Nino 4 is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 Not sure how useful TNI will be in this case, given the outlier nature of the Nino and the (very) warm eastern Pacific. Nino 1+2 was still 2.1C on the last weekly reading (a number I expect will bottom soon and start rising again as the latest big EKW pushes further east), so this is quite warm -- in fact Nino 1+2 was the second warmest on record for October. This is something that is easy to forget with 3, 3.4 and 4 blowtorching. I wondered about it msyelf. The apparent flaw in TNI would be that it is basically only a difference product and doesn't account for actual magnitude of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Not sure how useful TNI will be in this case, given the outlier nature of the Nino and the (very) warm eastern Pacific. Nino 1+2 was still 2.1C on the last weekly reading (a number I expect will bottom soon and start rising again as the latest big EKW pushes further east), so this is quite warm -- in fact Nino 1+2 was the second warmest on record for October. This is something that is easy to forget with 3, 3.4 and 4 blowtorching. Some in other subforums are hellbent on that not happening. They are in for a rude awakening when it does though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Nino 1+2 is going to rise...the question is whether it beats its previous peak for this event which seems like it will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 Some in other subforums are hellbent on that not happening. They are in for a rude awakening when it does though. They have developed some kind of emotional attachment to 1+2 peaking, everything becoming "west-based" and then something something SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 They have developed some kind of emotional attachment to 1+2 peaking, everything becoming "west-based" and then something something SNOW! Basin wide to them means west-based, which is clearly isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 They have developed some kind of emotional attachment to 1+2 peaking, everything becoming "west-based" and then something something SNOW! yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Some in other subforums are hellbent on that not happening. They are in for a rude awakening when it does though. So you don't think 1+2 reached its peak last Summer? I believe it peaked at something like 3.3C. You think it will peak higher? I can't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 yep Why can't they just follow el Nino climatology logic and say it will force a -AO by Feb therefore SNOW! They're manufacturing nonsense to find support for something they want when they could just use climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 It's likely nino 4 has peaked. One thing I have to ask is when OHC is typically expected to peak??? It's currently at its peak for the event. I figured by now it would be well on its way downward. The reason I say enso 4 has peaked is because the way it's warmed is not because the warm pool is moving West. It's still moving East But a perfect split in the trades sent warmer surface water West while East of the dateline weaker trades have continued. The warm pool has kept moving East. The absolute warmth with that huge pool of 30-31C is wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Why can't they just follow el Nino climatology logic and say it will force a -AO by Feb therefore SNOW! They're manufacturing nonsense to find support for something they want when they could just use climo. The same reason global warming is denied by most snow lovers. Addicts don't like threats to their dope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The same reason global warming is denied by most snow lovers. Addicts don't like threats to their dope. Funny...my supply of dope has increased thanks to climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Funny...my supply of dope has increased thanks to climate change. Likewise. Your area will likely see that for a while. But the heat being released is incredible right now. It's spectacular. There will be chances for some major winter storms. But this winter I see the arctic being cut off for the most part. Going to be more cold rains and foggy nights I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Likewise. Your area will likely see that for a while. But the heat being released is incredible right now. It's spectacular. There will be chances for some major winter storms. But this winter I see the arctic being cut off for the most part. Going to be more cold rains and foggy nights I see. I've been thinking more along the lines of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Funny...my supply of dope has increased thanks to climate change. yea, global warming is so 2000, the mini ice-age is the new climate change mantra. You risk overdosing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 hi buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Likewise. Your area will likely see that for a while. But the heat being released is incredible right now. It's spectacular. There will be chances for some major winter storms. But this winter I see the arctic being cut off for the most part. Going to be more cold rains and foggy nights I see. You could have made this post in 1982. AGW isn't going to push the jet north 1,500 miles, but El Nino will.If you want to claim his winter might be a half a degree Celsius higher than 1982 because of AGW, I won't argue that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 You could have made this post in 1982. AGW isn't going to push the jet north 1,500 miles, but El Nino will. If you want to claim his winter might be a half a degree Celsius higher than 1982 because of AGW, I won't argue that. Record snowpack has had me in heaven the last two winters, so since I already know thats not happening a 3rd straight winter, Im all in on this jet configuration. May have less nuisance snows but more big snowstorms, which is supposedly a dream for many on here. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 yea, global warming is so 2000, the mini ice-age is the new climate change mantra. You risk overdosing. I don't understand what this sentence means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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