Rainman Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 You could have made this post in 1982. AGW isn't going to push the jet north 1,500 miles, but El Nino will. If you want to claim his winter might be a half a degree Celsius higher than 1982 because of AGW, I won't argue that. There will probably be some good studies that come out of this attempting to filter out the AGW and ENSO temperature signals to 2015 and 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Record snowpack has had me in heaven the last two winters, so since I already know thats not happening a 3rd straight winter, Im all in on this jet configuration. May have less nuisance snows but more big snowstorms, which is supposedly a dream for many on here. Buckle up. Nothing beats it MSF! Hop on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Nothing beats it MSF! Hop on board! I am. Im already well aware that REGARDLESS of the type of winter we have, theres no way we will have the type of record snowpack we had the last two winters. It defied all odds to happen once in '13-14, but that was in an all-out record winter. That it happened again last year (thanks to the tundra unloading the 2nd half of winter) was a double wow. El Nino is too volatile of an event to let something settle in for months. Roller coaster is likely, and we have a juiced jet, go for the gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-it%E2%80%99s-small-world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Time to adjust the scale? And this may be a little conservative as there are other sources that have it AOA 3.0 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Time to adjust the scale? nino34.png And this may be a little conservative as there are other sources that have it AOA 3.0 right now. What was the 97-98 daily record for 3.4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 What was the 97-98 daily record for 3.4? I'm not sure about the daily record. We are poised to break the weekly peak for 97-98 though on the next update. I'd guess we will see either 2.9 or 3.0 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I'm not sure about the daily record. We are poised to break the weekly peak for 97-98 though on the next update. I'd guess we will see either 2.9 or 3.0 on Monday. No doubt. As much fun as it's been to track to this point, I'm gonna enjoy watching it collapse. I'm ready for the Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 No doubt. As much fun as it's been to track to this point, I'm gonna enjoy watching it collapse. I'm ready for the Nina. Yeah me too. We go from Nino watch right into Nina watch...not very unusual though as a number of the bigger Ninos violently swung the other way after their demise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 No doubt. As much fun as it's been to track to this point, I'm gonna enjoy watching it collapse. I'm ready for the Nina. We had a chart up recently that had shown that any equatorial anomaly under +0.8 gave a near equal chance for cold or warm for the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 No doubt. As much fun as it's been to track to this point, I'm gonna enjoy watching it collapse. I'm ready for the Nina. I endorse this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I endorse this post.Low AAM and -PNA FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 There are actually El Nino watches and El Nino advisories defined by the CPC. I suppose, not to be confused with any other sort of county-based watches/ warnings/ advisories. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/enso-alert-readme.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Region 3.4 is up to 3.0C, a new weekly record. Region 3 has also increased to 3.0, the highest it's been since early 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Here's the CFS prog for 3.4...only one model but the pretty rapid tanking is supported by other models. However, we are so strong right now that it wouldn't be that surprising to technically have strong Nino conditions for most or all of winter even though it will be in decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 December is the climatological time for an el Nino to decline, so this is not unexpected. I will say that the atmospheric response tends to lag forcing by several weeks, so by Jan we'll be pretty much set for winter on strong el Nino forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Some upward ticks on the weekly numbers...region 1+2 went from 2.0 to 2.1, region 3.4 went from 3.0 to 3.1, and region 4 went from 1.7 to 1.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 I have a question for you guys. Obviously El Nino is strong. Let's say it weakens from January to March. People are talking about the idea that it gets weaker. Now, does that mean that the subtropical jet (in North America and the eastern Pacifc) is still stronger than average through March -and- does it mean the US gradually gets cooler, relative to average? Just wondering. Is this a feature that happened in other moderate to strong El Ninos? If El Nino water temps get weaker, does it mean the mid-ocean convection still enhances the speed of the subtropical jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Atmospheric response lags the ENSO forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Strong to very strong El Nino Novembers, composite of 925mb temp anomalies and surface temp anomalies, 5 different years used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Upwelling KW beginning its trek east over the past month. Also appears to be strengthening. Would have to think the chances for a Nina in 16-17 are increasing, given this and previous climo with strong Nino events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Upwelling KW beginning its trek east over the past month. Also appears to be strengthening. Would have to think the chances for a Nina in 16-17 are increasing, given this and previous climo with strong Nino events. Do you or anyone know what causes a Nino to collapse one way or the other? As in west-to-east or east-to-west. CFS is the only major model that has it collapsing from west to east... which I suspect is the reason why it's a torch throughout. I dunno what to look for for a sign of either collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Do you or anyone know what causes a Nino to collapse one way or the other? As in west-to-east or east-to-west. CFS is the only major model that has it collapsing from west to east... which I suspect is the reason why it's a torch throughout. I dunno what to look for for a sign of either collapse. Usually that sub surface anomaly will reach the surface in the east and then spread westward with intensifying trades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Usually that sub surface anomaly will reach the surface in the east and then spread westward with intensifying trades. So are you in the east-to-west camp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Also... do we know what the subsurface looked like at this time in 97? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Also... do we know what the subsurface looked like at this time in 97? As you can see 1997 had a much stronger sub-surface warm pool in the east and a significantly stronger cold pool in the west, this doesn't mean the current one won't strengthen further, though. In addition, years that had a much weaker upwelling wave around this time went on to produce significant La Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Region 1+2 went up to 2.4C, while region 3.4 ticked down to 3.0 Maybe, just maybe, we have seen the peak of this Nino episode (in 3.4). If not, it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 There's been some big changes in the subsurface. I recommend you right click the images and open them in a new tab so you can click between the tabs to compare to see the changes. These are the changes I see. I don't know the technical terms, but there's a temp gradient that's flattening out to a horizontal gradient. The cold subsurface waters seem to be attempting to "hide under" the warm waters that are closer to the surface. It also seems to be putting pressure on the warm subsurface blob in the east. Most of it refuses to peak at the surface, but some has... most notably at 120W. I dunno what this all means... I'm sure someone does and can expand on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Upwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave (OKW) aka Equatorial Kelvin Wave (EKW) The best way to look at anomalies is really via the change in the thermocline. That warm/cool couplet is a result of the thermocline being located further up in the water column than normal and the water above it being above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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