OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Maybe later in day but I don't see much rain south of pike till mid- late Pm. Could see breaks of sun in morning I wouldn't go breaking out the SPF 45 just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Sensible mess exactly.. .Said that last night, that no matter how much rain falls, ...we doomed! That high moving in that position is high confidence, and it cannot happen without drilling easterlies and mist to beyond ALB... Up there in central NE 40s are an easier call. I think about Rt 2 is the cut-off for 49ers, then it's 50-55 like you say further S. And neither "un"underscores the schits. And I also don't care much Sunday night through Tues is a blur with work and all, anyway. Let it rain let rain let it rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Rainy and increasingly cold Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. June is busting out all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 The 12z GGEM just hammers the area over the next 3 days. 2-3" totals with heavy convection and locally a lot more if they verify. Philly all the way to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Even the MAV is down to a high of 49F now at CON for Mon. Glad I didn't pull the pellet vent pipe yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Sensible mess exactly.. .Said that last night, that no matter how much rain falls, ...we doomed! That high moving in that position is high confidence, and it cannot happen without drilling easterlies and mist to beyond ALB... Up there in central NE 40s are an easier call. I think about Rt 2 is the cut-off for 49ers, then it's 50-55 like you say further S. And neither "un"underscores the schits. And I also don't care much Sunday night through Tues is a blur with work and all, anyway. Let it rain let rain let it rain Yeah..it's gonna rain some in some places..We need it. It all falls Sunday night..break Monday and then more Mon night/Tuesday..thankfully it doesn't ruin a weekend and we go right back into deep summer Thursday and beyond with Wed as recovery day into 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Yeah..it's gonna rain some in some places..We need it. It all falls Sunday night..break Monday and then more Mon night/Tuesday..thankfully it doesn't ruin a weekend and we go right back into deep summer Thursday and beyond with Wed as recovery day into 70's Looks like you're starting to back pedal from your previous thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Yeah..it's gonna rain some in some places..We need it. It all falls Sunday night..break Monday and then more Mon night/Tuesday..thankfully it doesn't ruin a weekend and we go right back into deep summer Thursday and beyond with Wed as recovery day into 70's lol just embrace it dude. The internal struggle continues...wants rain for the grass but doesn't want to listen to everyone posting about how cold and damp it. 12z NAM with 5.1" at BTV through 84 hours, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Looks like you're starting to back pedal from your previous thoughts? Huh? I've always thought rain..I just never bought and still don't buy these massive forecasts of 2-4+ inches of rain i've seen some folks putting out there. i think in CT we'll see an average of around an inch. Everything screams CNE/NNE for most of the rain with this. A place like NYC south isn't going to see too much at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Also looks like a pretty cool first week or 10 days of June here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Huh? I've always thought rain..I just never bought and still don't buy these massive forecasts of 2-4+ inches of rain i've seen some folks putting out there. i think in CT we'll see an average of around an inch. Everything screams CNE/NNE for most of the rain with this. A place like NYC south isn't going to see too much at all i thought you were thinking about 0.5"? Now it's 1.0"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 i thought you were thinking about 0.5"? Now it's 1.0"? I have been on record as thinking 1 inch or less IMBY.. I don't see anything with this setup that says any differently. Do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Faster means quick shower / storm instead of inches of rain and cool . Not shocking considering the last 8 weeks, but that is deeply concerning Monday looks sunny and dry now though right? No more low 50's and rain All by itself with no support. Good luck Noone is getting 2-4 inches of rain out of this. An inch in some spots sure. But it's not raining Sunday thru Tuesday lol. Euro going nuts as usual Not bulls eyes,, just the general thing I've been worried about with a stall farther north and the massive rains being forecast over SNE end up in CNE/ NNE Stalled front north also means we spend less time in 40's and low 50's . Cooler sure, but let's see if we can keep most of that north Man..wholescale shifts north and west today on every single model with the good rains. hopefully that's the last shift NW..one more and it leaves most of SNE out of the good rain Euro actually might offer areas pike south a decent day on Sunday with warmth and some dews ..like well into the 70's before any showers later in afternoon/evening.. Pretty good agreement today on front slowing and shifting high qpf NW..Any rain will be good rain at any rate Quite the contrary Tyler..I was hoping models were right..but have been very wary of the big rain forecasts but Phil is on it. CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 10m 10 minutes ago Latest ECMWFshows heaviest / steadiest rain is NYS/ NNE Sun-Tue....still some much needed rain in SNE, but interesting shift I'll wait for one more cycle of runs..but based on what I see TODAY..i think there's a very good chance of less than 1 inch here locally. If 12z trends continue overnight take all those amounts down under an inch from Nj to SNE. Trend not our friend. If you really need Yankee tickets that badly I can get them for you Thats the thing. I think front slows even more. Like either stalls over CT or even pike area. I do t think it ever gets as far south as some have you believe. I'm sure eventually it makes it to NYC but maybe not until Tues am? meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 lol...MEX with a high of 49 Tuesday at BOS. June 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 I have been on record as thinking 1 inch or less IMBY.. I don't see anything with this setup that says any differently. Do you? Well - it's a lot convection so it's hard to be overly confident - but I wouldn't be surprised if many areas in SNE get 1-3" through Tuesday. Just has a soaker kind of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Well - it's a lot convection so it's hard to be overly confident - but I wouldn't be surprised if many areas in SNE get 1-3" through Tuesday. Just has a soaker kind of look. I honestly hope that forecast is right. Man do we freaking need it. Could do without the 50's for 2 days..but if it rains, we accept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Well - it's a lot convection so it's hard to be overly confident - but I wouldn't be surprised if many areas in SNE get 1-3" through Tuesday. Just has a soaker kind of look. Yeah with the convective nature its easy to envision maybe not as widespread as the models are showing, but still should be enough rounds of rain to get a lot of areas over 1"....and then areas that get hit could be seeing 3-4". Personally my gut with climo says this crushes parts of the Berks and southern Greens into the Monadnocks region. The southern Greens with elevation there just know how to rain hard in these convective set ups. That stuff just blows up and unloads water as it hits that high terrain coming out of New York. Basically the central Greens from like Sugarbush/Killington south to Mt Snow, I bet that zone takes it on the chin with the orographics and efficient precipitation. We may just be a bit too far north up here, but still the terrain should lead to some decent totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 lol...MEX with a high of 49 Tuesday at BOS. June 2nd. Record is 50F in 1946. It's gonna be cruddy so we may as well go epic wretched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Yeah with the convective nature its easy to envision maybe not as widespread as the models are showing, but still should be enough rounds of rain to get a lot of areas over 1"....and then areas that get hit could be seeing 3-4". Personally my gut with climo says this crushes parts of the Berks and southern Greens into the Monadnocks region. The southern Greens with elevation there just know how to rain hard in these convective set ups. That stuff just blows up and unloads water as it hits that high terrain coming out of New York. Agree..that is the area that is going to get it. These folks expecting flooding rains in NYC and NJ don't understand climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Agree..that is the area that is going to get it. These folks expecting flooding rains in NYC and NJ don't understand climo Who is expecting that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 June discussion started. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46416-june-gloom-or-glory-pattern-discussion-moving-into-the-first-month-of-met-summer/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Record is 50F in 1946. It's gonna be cruddy so we may as well go epic wretched. BOS may have a better shot of breaking the 53F from 6/1/1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 12z GFS and 12z GGEM are both on the same page for the most part... widespread heavy rains. GFS: GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Record is 50F in 1946. It's gonna be cruddy so we may as well go epic wretched. That's the year I was born. Weenie fetus by then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 30, 2015 Author Share Posted May 30, 2015 Rainy and increasingly cold Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. June is busting out all over.Frigidaire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Record is 50F in 1946. It's gonna be cruddy so we may as well go epic wretched. Just got an ugly general downward trend in temps for tomorrow when I ran my hourly grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 30, 2015 Author Share Posted May 30, 2015 12z GFS and 12z GGEM are both on the same page for the most part... widespread heavy rains. GFS: gfs_apcpn_neus_15.png GGEM: gem_apcpn_neus_15.png synoptic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Frigidaire when it is called for, go cold or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Just got an ugly general downward trend in temps for tomorrow when I ran my hourly grids. Yeah...I see low 60s in my P&C right now. I assume those will be getting slashed and gashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 30, 2015 Author Share Posted May 30, 2015 when it is called for, go cold or go home.we uninstall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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