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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion


mackerel_sky

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This setup potentially next week looks interesting to me...just looking at the 6z GFS  verbatim, its one of those "shooting the gap" scenarios where something forms in between the mean W-Atlantic Ridge and an upper low in the Gulf of Mexico...and there is no escape route out to sea...

 

But in reality...that shooting the gap method usually does not pan out. So I would think over time we will have one of two things occur...

 

1. The upper low does not close off and dig as far south and the Western Atlantic ridge serves as the steering current...

OR

 

2. The upper low in the Gulf becomes the dominant feature and whatever tries to form on the eastern edge is pulled northward from the Gulf (unorganized)

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NOAA: Below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year

Issued: 27 May 2015
 

 

Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2015 hurricane season:

    6-11 Named Storms, which includes TS Ana that formed in May
    3-6 Hurricanes
    0-2 Major Hurricanes
    Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 40%-85% of the median

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html

 

In depth disco: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

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Actually, groundwater levels are running at or above normal levels most areas across the Carolinas. A few locales are below normal, mainly over the sw mtns. No sigfnt issues with abnormal dryness nor impending drought conds.

 

I keep wondering why the "dry" talk is even a thing. Upstate SC isn't close to drought conditions.

 

Edit: I suppose it might give the impression that we are "dry" when surface levels have been like solid baked clay recently. However, being arid at superficial levels doesn't equate to drought-dry conditions.

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There are people up in the foothills and piedmont of NC that have had less than .5 inches of rain the whole month of May, so I'd imagine it's dry to them. I saw a picture of corn in Roxboro, can't be more than 6 inches high! I'd bet they would say they need rain, so, I guess it's an objective term. Most would welcome a tropical system coming up through the Carolinas and dropping a widespread 2-4 inches of rain, I know I would

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The plant roots of most plants are in the top 6-12" of soil, so if the top layer is cracking dry, the plants and trees will suffer, so drought or no drought , plants will die with the lack of rain some have experienced. Especially ones just planted this spring or last fall! Plants need on the avg of 1" of rainfall a week, as a general rule, so without supplemental water, and people getting 1/2 the whole month, they will die or look terrible

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There are people up in the foothills and piedmont of NC that have had less than .5 inches of rain the whole month of May, so I'd imagine it's dry to them. I saw a picture of corn in Roxboro, can't be more than 6 inches high! I'd bet they would say they need rain, so, I guess it's an objective term. Most would welcome a tropical system coming up through the Carolinas and dropping a widespread 2-4 inches of rain, I know I would

 

It's still basically a surface dry.  Water tables and deep ground moisture are still fairly good. So it is dry, but not a drought.  Yet.  Time will tell.

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There are people up in the foothills and piedmont of NC that have had less than .5 inches of rain the whole month of May, so I'd imagine it's dry to them. I saw a picture of corn in Roxboro, can't be more than 6 inches high! I'd bet they would say they need rain, so, I guess it's an objective term. Most would welcome a tropical system coming up through the Carolinas and dropping a widespread 2-4 inches of rain, I know I would

Drought types...

 

http://www.ncdrought.org/education.php

 

Some areas could be considered to be in an Agricultural Drought.  The map that Brick posted is of the Hydrological Drought.

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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be below-normal, but that’s no reason to believe coastal areas will have it easy.

For the hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 - November 30, NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including zero to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a below-normal season is likely (70 percent), there is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., referring to the 1992 season in which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew – a Category 5 Major Hurricane that devastated South Florida.

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html

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GFS is still OTS but and the CMC has been OTS for several days now until this last run and it swung back  way left and takes a full fledge cane into Myrtle Beach, actually had it to 985 right off the coast then the next frame is this....

 

attachicon.gifCMC cane.png

 

If that happens, I'll be there.

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If that happens, I'll be there.

 

Right.....I would need it to be on Sunday though, the latest CMC keeps it offshore but gets it pretty strong, almost 980, the GFS seems to have it way offshore then loses it and then has random low pressures popping up for a frame then jumping somewhere else the next frame along the SC/NC coast not sure if its having trouble with that low or is just being the GFS....

 

It is the CMC too and well it use to be bias to overdoing tropical systems but I thought it was upgraded last year and that was suppose to have been resolved but I cant remember exactly with all the different "improvements" the different models have gotten if that was done.

 

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Quoted before it can be edited or erased!

 

Sweet I bet we could have gotten him to say the same thing 8 days before Ana hit...could have had us free steak....

 

The models were a lot more in agreement with Ana once we got within 7 days but even then the landfall inched up the coast from Hilton Head to SC/NC line which is pretty typical.....this afternoons run of the GFS will be fun all the major global models have the low now but all but the CMC keep it well offshore.....and even it went offshore form the hit I posted earlier.

 

Water temps up over 80 everywhere off the SE coast though now so if it did do what Ana did it will be a much stronger system.....one of these days we will get a Diana redo without the loop.

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Do they have an early bird menu? Say, before 3pm, like JBuns normal dinner time? :)

 

I'm not sure. When you take us, we can go early and find out! 

Sweet I bet we could have gotten him to say the same thing 8 days before Ana hit...could have had us free steak....

 

The models were a lot more in agreement with Ana once we got within 7 days but even then the landfall inched up the coast from Hilton Head to SC/NC line which is pretty typical.....this afternoons run of the GFS will be fun all the major global models have the low now but all but the CMC keep it well offshore.....and even it went offshore form the hit I posted earlier.

 

Water temps up over 80 everywhere off the SE coast though now so if it did do what Ana did it will be a much stronger system.....one of these days we will get a Diana redo without the loop.

CMC still keeps hope alive for a steak. Everything else is a whiff, though.

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