downeastnc Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 18Z GFS kept the low coming in around the same area Ana did......still its 8-10 days away soooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Well the models are holding on to this storm every run now, its eerily similar to Ana even down to the time frame the models sniffed it out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Really hope this one goes poof or away from NC. I just booked that weekend at the OBX for my 10th wedding anniversary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Really hope this one goes poof or away from NC. I just booked that weekend at the OBX for my 10th wedding anniversary. Happy Anniversary. I am taking the wife to Old Edwards Inn next weekend. Let's keep it dry in the NC Mountains please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 This setup potentially next week looks interesting to me...just looking at the 6z GFS verbatim, its one of those "shooting the gap" scenarios where something forms in between the mean W-Atlantic Ridge and an upper low in the Gulf of Mexico...and there is no escape route out to sea... But in reality...that shooting the gap method usually does not pan out. So I would think over time we will have one of two things occur... 1. The upper low does not close off and dig as far south and the Western Atlantic ridge serves as the steering current...OR 2. The upper low in the Gulf becomes the dominant feature and whatever tries to form on the eastern edge is pulled northward from the Gulf (unorganized) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 NOAA: Below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year Issued: 27 May 2015 Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2015 hurricane season: 6-11 Named Storms, which includes TS Ana that formed in May 3-6 Hurricanes 0-2 Major Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 40%-85% of the median http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html In depth disco: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Actually, groundwater levels are running at or above normal levels most areas across the Carolinas. A few locales are below normal, mainly over the sw mtns. No sigfnt issues with abnormal dryness nor impending drought conds. I keep wondering why the "dry" talk is even a thing. Upstate SC isn't close to drought conditions. Edit: I suppose it might give the impression that we are "dry" when surface levels have been like solid baked clay recently. However, being arid at superficial levels doesn't equate to drought-dry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 There are people up in the foothills and piedmont of NC that have had less than .5 inches of rain the whole month of May, so I'd imagine it's dry to them. I saw a picture of corn in Roxboro, can't be more than 6 inches high! I'd bet they would say they need rain, so, I guess it's an objective term. Most would welcome a tropical system coming up through the Carolinas and dropping a widespread 2-4 inches of rain, I know I would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 A lot of hype about the so-called drought, especially for NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 The plant roots of most plants are in the top 6-12" of soil, so if the top layer is cracking dry, the plants and trees will suffer, so drought or no drought , plants will die with the lack of rain some have experienced. Especially ones just planted this spring or last fall! Plants need on the avg of 1" of rainfall a week, as a general rule, so without supplemental water, and people getting 1/2 the whole month, they will die or look terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 There are people up in the foothills and piedmont of NC that have had less than .5 inches of rain the whole month of May, so I'd imagine it's dry to them. I saw a picture of corn in Roxboro, can't be more than 6 inches high! I'd bet they would say they need rain, so, I guess it's an objective term. Most would welcome a tropical system coming up through the Carolinas and dropping a widespread 2-4 inches of rain, I know I would It's still basically a surface dry. Water tables and deep ground moisture are still fairly good. So it is dry, but not a drought. Yet. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 There are people up in the foothills and piedmont of NC that have had less than .5 inches of rain the whole month of May, so I'd imagine it's dry to them. I saw a picture of corn in Roxboro, can't be more than 6 inches high! I'd bet they would say they need rain, so, I guess it's an objective term. Most would welcome a tropical system coming up through the Carolinas and dropping a widespread 2-4 inches of rain, I know I would Drought types... http://www.ncdrought.org/education.php Some areas could be considered to be in an Agricultural Drought. The map that Brick posted is of the Hydrological Drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Drought types... http://www.ncdrought.org/education.php Some areas could be considered to be in an Agricultural Drought. The map that Brick posted is of the Hydrological Drought. Gotcha ! Thanks for link and nice post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be below-normal, but that’s no reason to believe coastal areas will have it easy.For the hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 - November 30, NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including zero to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a below-normal season is likely (70 percent), there is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., referring to the 1992 season in which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew – a Category 5 Major Hurricane that devastated South Florida. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 This morning's 06 GFS keeps the 'Cuba Low' offshore, with little impact to the Southeast. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 This morning's 06 GFS keeps the 'Cuba Low' offshore, with little impact to the Southeast. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Been like that since yesterday, CMC is the same.....cant say I am surprised what Ana did is a bit of a outlier with tracks and storms that form that way they normally take the exit stage right,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 30, 2015 Author Share Posted May 30, 2015 Should be wide right because of the trough that's supposed to develop over the East into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 GFS is still OTS but and the CMC has been OTS for several days now until this last run and it swung back way left and takes a full fledge cane into Myrtle Beach, actually had it to 985 right off the coast then the next frame is this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 GFS is still OTS but and the CMC has been OTS for several days now until this last run and it swung back way left and takes a full fledge cane into Myrtle Beach, actually had it to 985 right off the coast then the next frame is this.... CMC cane.png If that happens, I'll be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 If that happens, I'll be there. Right.....I would need it to be on Sunday though, the latest CMC keeps it offshore but gets it pretty strong, almost 980, the GFS seems to have it way offshore then loses it and then has random low pressures popping up for a frame then jumping somewhere else the next frame along the SC/NC coast not sure if its having trouble with that low or is just being the GFS.... It is the CMC too and well it use to be bias to overdoing tropical systems but I thought it was upgraded last year and that was suppose to have been resolved but I cant remember exactly with all the different "improvements" the different models have gotten if that was done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Right.....I would need it to be on Sunday though, Not for me. The beauty of being retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 31, 2015 Author Share Posted May 31, 2015 Not for me. The beauty of being retired.If this "hurricane" on the models makes a direct hit on MB, I'll buy y'all dinner at Angus Barn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Definitely do not need a cane coming in here next weekend. Heading to Texas next Sunday and leaving the dogs here with a pet sitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 If this "hurricane" on the models makes a direct hit on MB, I'll buy y'all dinner at Angus Barn Quoted before it can be edited or erased! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 31, 2015 Author Share Posted May 31, 2015 Quoted before it can be edited or erased!Do they have an early bird menu? Say, before 3pm, like JBuns normal dinner time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Quoted before it can be edited or erased! Sweet I bet we could have gotten him to say the same thing 8 days before Ana hit...could have had us free steak.... The models were a lot more in agreement with Ana once we got within 7 days but even then the landfall inched up the coast from Hilton Head to SC/NC line which is pretty typical.....this afternoons run of the GFS will be fun all the major global models have the low now but all but the CMC keep it well offshore.....and even it went offshore form the hit I posted earlier. Water temps up over 80 everywhere off the SE coast though now so if it did do what Ana did it will be a much stronger system.....one of these days we will get a Diana redo without the loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 I live on the border of myrtle beach and Conway. I'll host a hurricane party if it's on a weekday haha! But man if something hits Sunday night, I'm working 7pm-7am at a hospital :/. No Bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 The water temp at Wrightsville Beach is now 83. This is the warmest it has been at this point of the year since 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Do they have an early bird menu? Say, before 3pm, like JBuns normal dinner time? I'm not sure. When you take us, we can go early and find out! Sweet I bet we could have gotten him to say the same thing 8 days before Ana hit...could have had us free steak.... The models were a lot more in agreement with Ana once we got within 7 days but even then the landfall inched up the coast from Hilton Head to SC/NC line which is pretty typical.....this afternoons run of the GFS will be fun all the major global models have the low now but all but the CMC keep it well offshore.....and even it went offshore form the hit I posted earlier. Water temps up over 80 everywhere off the SE coast though now so if it did do what Ana did it will be a much stronger system.....one of these days we will get a Diana redo without the loop. CMC still keeps hope alive for a steak. Everything else is a whiff, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 I'm not sure. When you take us, we can go early and find out! CMC still keeps hope alive for a steak. Everything else is a whiff, though. I'm ride'n the CMC if Mack's buy'n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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