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Zelocita Weather

Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread

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I hear ya. I just went for my first outside jog in a LOOONG time. The sun is bright and warm, and in many ways I'm yearning for spring. That being said, I still love a good snow storm. At this time of the year I have an attitude of "Let's get something big or please stay the hell away". 

 

I've been training all winter. Never done anything like this before. I figured - we'll get a nice 35-40 degree morning and it will feel balmy. At this point, I can handle 20-25 degrees. Heavy rain/wet snow is worst case scenario. 

 

20K people run. They get the world-class runners to run it.

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I've been running outside all winter, but a couple of those mornings with wind chills around -20 were tough.

Congrats, I have run a few marathons, this winter must be tough

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Fwiw Steve d thinks this storm will only bring snows to Vermont and up north

Wow, I don't think he has ever downplayed NJ area snows this winter.

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look n.y.c wants to snow most in march,the pattern isnt really diff from this week's last 2 snow events.as i said before,it is now n.y.c's time to catch up to boston as in seasonal records.wheres my friend unioncityweather to back me up on these comments i stated 4 days ago?? lol..it's gonna be a wild ride for the last 2 weeks of march!

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look n.y.c wants to snow most in march,the pattern isnt really diff from this week's last 2 snow events.as i said before,it is now n.y.c's time to catch up to boston as in seasonal records.wheres my friend unioncityweather to back me up on these comments i stated 4 days ago?? lol..it's gonna be a wild ride for the last 2 weeks of march!

With all the teleconnections seemingly lining up along with the increasing temperature gradient since we're in March, it would not surprise me if we see a KU event before the end of the month. Lots of potential.

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Interesting pattern setting up! Could get interesting, not sure if/when I should break the possibilities to my wife as she may pack up and leave after another snowfall (she grew up in a warm weather climate)!

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Beautiful pattern depicted coming up

I lurk on the NYCMetro board, and they're talking about a model dispute: GFS says cold and Euro says warm. Why are we buying the GFS?

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I lurk on the NYCMetro board, and they're talking about a model dispute: GFS says cold and Euro says warm. Why are we buying the GFS?

Because it's almost spring and we have nothing to lose?

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I lurk on the NYCMetro board, and they're talking about a model dispute: GFS says cold and Euro says warm. Why are we buying the GFS?

I don't think and i hope that nobody is buying anything verbatim. There are too many characters at play at this time-frame to know this far ahead exactly what's going to transpire, but the pattern we have been in and are going into does lend I would slightly more support to the GFS this run, but don't be surprised if these models have swapped places by this time tomorrow. Both are fickle in this situation and neither can absolutely nail down the details of what's going to happen at this time range.

WX/PT

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I lurk on the NYCMetro board, and they're talking about a model dispute: GFS says cold and Euro says warm. Why are we buying the GFS?

Why are they buying the euro?

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Euro doesnt make sense in the pattern

Not entirely. I would say the GFS seems a better fit. On the other hand, the pattern is changing to some extent with the northern stream relaxing and the STJ gradually taking over. This is a normal climatological change and we really do not know all of its implications at this time. I could be that the STJ becomes so dominant that it overwhelms the -EPO at least a part of the time. That would not be totally illogical. But it is really too early to make absolute conclusions though we can say that the GFS is a better fit for the pattern that we have been in.

WX/PT

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Guest Pamela

CPC going warm over 90% of the lower 48 and cold over the Northeast in their 6 - 10 day outlook...the area of below normal temps expands on the 8 - 14 day outlook (continues to include Northeast & New England)...that would be through the first day of astronomical spring...precip above normal...so you would probably expect some snow activity to continue through the last few days of astronomical winter around here. 

 

Note: If there appears to be some inconsistency between the above comment and my other comment in the media thread how I do not seek out the forecasts of media outlets & personalities...consulting the CPC map is a little different as they have a good deal more insight into the mid range than I would have. 

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Not entirely. I would say the GFS seems a better fit. On the other hand, the pattern is changing to some extent with the northern stream relaxing and the STJ gradually taking over. This is a normal climatological change and we really do not know all of its implications at this time. I could be that the STJ becomes so dominant that it overwhelms the -EPO at least a part of the time. That would not be totally illogical. But it is really too early to make absolute conclusions though we can say that the GFS is a better fit for the pattern that we have been in.

WX/PT

It's possible with the STJ, however there's still going to be a pretty good temperature gradient around h5 and h3, especially with the EPO and AO both potentially dipping into pretty solid negative territory. That temperature gradient should be enough to keep the STJ confined towards the South and SE. The EPO will not be overwhelmed IMO, as the PDO is going to remain exceedingly positive due to SSTs in the northern Pacific. What is a possibility is the STJ and Polar Jet streams merging with each other at times.

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Highs mainly in the 50s now for next 7-10 days. It's definitely over now no more cold and snow even lows are forecast to be just above freezing.

 

Disagree, the better pattern gets here after that. Is it harder to get snow by then, sure. Is it impossible, no. This weeks deal is not during the good pattern being advertised on ens.

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