SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 The blocking would have to arrive from the Atlantic in order for very cold relative to normal to verify. The EPO alone does not have the same power it does in the winter months. A +PNA helps obviously but even that may not be enough to send temperatures colder than near or slightly below normal. And if you want a late season snowstorm you really need a strong blocking pattern throughout to have the greatest odds. I love temps in the upper 40s or 50s with some cloudy skies it feels great for a brisk stroll outdoors and you can finally open up the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Did I see someone post a 45 day accuwx forecast earlier? I assume its accurate...I was planning a barbecue on April 20th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 The blocking would have to arrive from the Atlantic in order for very cold relative to normal to verify. The EPO alone does not have the same power it does in the winter months. A +PNA helps obviously but even that may not be enough to send temperatures colder than near or slightly below normal. And if you want a late season snowstorm you really need a strong blocking pattern throughout to have the greatest odds. I love temps in the upper 40s or 50s with some cloudy skies it feels great for a brisk stroll outdoors and you can finally open up the windows. 50s is PERFECT running weather. Just absolutely perfect. 50-65 deg is the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I assume its accurate...I was planning a barbecue on April 20th... I just planned out my next 45 days based on that forecast, if it's wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I assume its accurate...I was planning a barbecue on April 20th... Let me know what time...I'll bring the chicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 The blocking would have to arrive from the Atlantic in order for very cold relative to normal to verify. The EPO alone does not have the same power it does in the winter months. A +PNA helps obviously but even that may not be enough to send temperatures colder than near or slightly below normal. And if you want a late season snowstorm you really need a strong blocking pattern throughout to have the greatest odds. I love temps in the upper 40s or 50s with some cloudy skies it feels great for a brisk stroll outdoors and you can finally open up the windows. I keep seeing the bolded part mentioned, so here is what it actually looks like for MAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 0.5 negative correlation is kind of a wash, really. I'd like to see > 0.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 First week here.. -11 degree temp departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 First week here.. -11 degree temp departure. NYC is just about to the first 50 since January 4th. It actually feels mild out there with the March sun. We need these downslope days to overperform since the SST's are still in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 NYC is just about to the first 50 since January 4th. It actually feels mild out there with the March sun.Yeah avg highs are already up near 50, so having a normal few days temp wise is gonna feel warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Highs mainly in the 50s now for next 7-10 days. It's definitely over now no more cold and snow even lows are forecast to be just above freezing. Im beginning to think you may be Steve D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 0.5 negative correlation is kind of a wash, really. I'd like to see > 0.7. I would imagine if there were any yellows around here, you'd be all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I keep seeing the bolded part mentioned, so here is what it actually looks like for MAR epomar.gif Good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Im beginning to think you may be Steve D Ha. We've all been breaking his balls all winter but at least he's not afraid to put it all out there.And yea I was being sarcastic about the cold being completely done. I know well enough to know we'll probably see 1-2 more strong shots of cold air after we've all been basking to the warmth for a long period of time just to f***k with us. The warm air doesn't become permanent until post April 15 and then of course there's the dreaded BDCF season that offers us some of the worst Spring weather you can imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I mean, you've seen this right? You understand how changing wave lengths in Spring alters how things like the PNA, NAO, EPO etc affect our weather? This is the composite for March with a positive PNA: I can't find the article again unfortunately, but if I do I'll post the link. It explains how March/spring short wavelengths change the effects of AO, PNA, EPO, NAO, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 NYC is just about to the first 50 since January 4th. It actually feels mild out there with the March sun. We need these downslope days to overperform since the SST's are still in the 30's. The wind is making it feel cold though, was just out tossing the ball to the poodle. He killed a squirrel yesterday andmy daughter is upset, so I am encouraging him to ball chase. Once tomato season gets under way, he can go after the squirrels again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Yeah avg highs are already up near 50, so having a normal few days temp wise is gonna feel warm. True, close to normal is all we need on March 8th with the increasing sun angle for thawing conditions. The wind is making it feel cold though, was just out tossing the ball to the poodle. He killed a squirrel yesterday andmy daughter is upset, so I am encouraging him to ball chase. Once tomato season gets under way, he can go after the squirrels again. My neighbor had to get the humane trappers to clear the squirrels out of his attic that were chewing the wiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Park dropped back down to 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 From the NE forum, Euro looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 From the NE forum, Euro looks good. Quick frozen on the front end before rain and a continuation of nothing being able to cut outright in this pattern as the low gets forced south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 8, 2015 Author Share Posted March 8, 2015 Good trends today ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 From the NE forum, Euro looks good. Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 tim is obsessed with me. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Good trends today ... Lot can happen in 132 hours...though the anticyclone is in a *really* bad spot (near George's Bank). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 tim is obsessed with me. Strange. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Lot can happen in 132 hours...though the anticyclone is in a *really* bad spot (near George's Bank).Once to day 10 the following 5 days park the trough in the east and stick under the block. It is how you snow in March with shorter wavelengths . The departures from normal will easily show up In what should be a 10 day period of 10 below. Getting it to snow will be the trick but I definitely see the colder than normal coming back. I will let others bet if any or how much snow fall If the last 10 days are what I think they are March should have no problem finishing below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 From the NE forum, Euro looks good.Good for NE, still all rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 If the last 10 days are what I think they are March should have no problem finishing below normal It about 100% likely the month finishes below normal throughout the NYC area...25% of the month is in the rear view mirror and you already are looking at -10 DFN's. Finishing above normal would be like trying to win the election after you lost Texas, New York, Florida, & California...very close to a mathematical impossibility. She can stay afloat with the first four compartments breached...but not five. From this point forth, Titanic will founder. But this ship can't sink... She's made of iron sir...she can & she will. It is a mathematical certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Once to day 10 the following 5 days park the trough in the east and stick under the block. It is how you snow in March with shorter wavelengths . The departures from normal will easily show up In what should be a 10 day period of 10 below. Getting it to snow will be the trick but I definitely see the colder than normal coming back. I will let others bet if any or how much snow fall If the last 10 days are what I think they are March should have no problem finishing below normal One of the top ten later March 500 mb analogs today shows how it could happen if we get lucky. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us0319.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 One of the top ten later March 500 mb analogs today shows how it could happen if we get lucky. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us0319.php Whenever you shorten the wave lengths and stick the trough under blocking you are inviting trouble. It is just what the atmosphere sometimes does. The models are hinting at blocking by 10. Both ensembles see it . " if " it happens then you are going go wild. The sun may be close to OCT but temps are NOV like But with cold water . The Atlantic is what could lock this off for 2 weeks and put spring on hold until April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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