Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Roughly the same placement, a tad less juicy than 18z tho

Only really in SNJ.....in fact, for the higher elevations of the NW suburbs, this is a bit of a better run. Model noise more than anything. Precip shield expanded further north a little bit, and the heavier precip closer to the low is not as heavy this run. For almost all of us past southern NJ, this is at least as good of a run
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's actually a great compromise for the NYC metro with the Nam's amped bias and the Gfs tendency to be less amped and further SE.

The old GFS had a SE bias on miller a lows coming out of the GOM. I don't know if the new one does the same with its upgrades, it really hasn't been around all that long to show a track record of that yet
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Im gonna ask this question before the run posts lol.. If the GGEM caves towards the nam will you guys toss it after calling it the best model all year?

Just playing Devils advocate

If the GGEM caves to a GFS solution I personally will not toss it, I'll believe the euro/GFS and toss the nam for sure

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm doubting this will miss south-the ensembles usually aren't amped and NW the way they are, there's a very nice flow of moisture coming into the system, and the confluence north of it doesn't look strong enough to really crush this south. There's some confluence north of this but it's lifting out ahead of the storm and doesn't look overpowering, at least at NYC's latitude. It could be that the heaviest precip goes south a little, but that's not the same as a miss and a nice overall snow event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Im gonna ask this question before the run posts lol.. If the GGEM caves towards the nam will you guys toss it after calling it the best model all year?

Just playing Devils advocate

If the GGEM caves to a GFS solition I personally will not toss it, I'll believe the euro/GFS and toss the nam for sure

I'll be honest, man.....the way I see it right now.....there's no model that I've seen that looks bad for this storm. This is realistically our best chance for a 6-10" storm (for those of us that haven't seen one yet, like me!).....I wouldn't mind if the GFS caves to the GGEM or the GGEM caves to the GFS or if anyone cave to the euro, etc.....best thing about this is that almost all of the models show close to half a foot of snow or more. If the models keep these solutions tomorrow, I would think winter storm watches would go up for much of the area. I'm hoping we all cash in on this one
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm doubting this will miss south-the ensembles usually aren't amped and NW the way they are, there's a very nice flow of moisture coming into the system, and the confluence north of it doesn't look strong enough to really crush this south. There's some confluence north of this but it's lifting out ahead of the storm and doesn't look overpowering, at least at NYC's latitude. It could be that the heaviest precip goes south a little, but that's not the same as a miss and a nice overall snow event.

 

I'd bet heavy now this ends up somewhere between the NAM and GFS...the GFS with every storm the last 3-4 weeks has been flat and the NAM too amped.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Im gonna ask this question before the run posts lol.. If the GGEM caves towards the nam will you guys toss it after calling it the best model all year?

Just playing Devils advocate

If the GGEM caves to a GFS solution I personally will not toss it, I'll believe the euro/GFS and toss the nam for sure

If the ggem, euro and gfs look the same then I'd toss the nam, not that I'm a big nam fan at all to begin with. If the ukmet looks like the other globals, all the more reason to throw out the nam
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Weenie map comparison of 12z and 00z

Def nowhere near the euro or GFS solution, somewhere between the nam and GFS whxih is probably best call as of now

It ended up being juicier and better with the northern shield

Not much change from 12z just less QPF overall, not counting specific areas in its precip shield
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...