WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What once looked great is now trending south.How is this trending south at all? C'mon everyone I'm all for being blunt and pointing out what we see.....but how is this south ?00z : 18z : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 How is this trending south at all? C'mon everyone..... 00z : ImageUploadedByTapatalk1425355471.471240.jpg 18z : ImageUploadedByTapatalk1425355482.818216.jpg Roughly the same placement, a tad less juicy than 18z tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Roughly the same placement, a tad less juicy than 18z thoIf the gfs moves south on tomorrow's runs, then you have a trend. It's not a trend yet, like the other poster said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's actually a great compromise for the NYC metro with the Nam's amped bias and the Gfs tendency to be less amped and further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Roughly the same placement, a tad less juicy than 18z thoOnly really in SNJ.....in fact, for the higher elevations of the NW suburbs, this is a bit of a better run. Model noise more than anything. Precip shield expanded further north a little bit, and the heavier precip closer to the low is not as heavy this run. For almost all of us past southern NJ, this is at least as good of a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I would expect the GFS to trend north and the NAM to tune south. At this time it looks like NYC will see a decent size snow storm Thursday. 6"-9" is my best guess now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 00z gfs looks the same to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's actually a great compromise for the NYC metro with the Nam's amped bias and the Gfs tendency to be less amped and further SE.The old GFS had a SE bias on miller a lows coming out of the GOM. I don't know if the new one does the same with its upgrades, it really hasn't been around all that long to show a track record of that yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Im gonna ask this question before the run posts lol.. If the GGEM caves towards the nam will you guys toss it after calling it the best model all year? Just playing Devils advocate If the GGEM caves to a GFS solution I personally will not toss it, I'll believe the euro/GFS and toss the nam for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm doubting this will miss south-the ensembles usually aren't amped and NW the way they are, there's a very nice flow of moisture coming into the system, and the confluence north of it doesn't look strong enough to really crush this south. There's some confluence north of this but it's lifting out ahead of the storm and doesn't look overpowering, at least at NYC's latitude. It could be that the heaviest precip goes south a little, but that's not the same as a miss and a nice overall snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I would expect the GFS to trend north and the NAM to tune south. At this time it looks like NYC will see a decent size snow storm Thursday. 6"-9" is my best guess now. If you think so that carries some weight with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Im gonna ask this question before the run posts lol.. If the GGEM caves towards the nam will you guys toss it after calling it the best model all year? Just playing Devils advocate If the GGEM caves to a GFS solition I personally will not toss it, I'll believe the euro/GFS and toss the nam for sure I'll be honest, man.....the way I see it right now.....there's no model that I've seen that looks bad for this storm. This is realistically our best chance for a 6-10" storm (for those of us that haven't seen one yet, like me!).....I wouldn't mind if the GFS caves to the GGEM or the GGEM caves to the GFS or if anyone cave to the euro, etc.....best thing about this is that almost all of the models show close to half a foot of snow or more. If the models keep these solutions tomorrow, I would think winter storm watches would go up for much of the area. I'm hoping we all cash in on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm doubting this will miss south-the ensembles usually aren't amped and NW the way they are, there's a very nice flow of moisture coming into the system, and the confluence north of it doesn't look strong enough to really crush this south. There's some confluence north of this but it's lifting out ahead of the storm and doesn't look overpowering, at least at NYC's latitude. It could be that the heaviest precip goes south a little, but that's not the same as a miss and a nice overall snow event. I'd bet heavy now this ends up somewhere between the NAM and GFS...the GFS with every storm the last 3-4 weeks has been flat and the NAM too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Im gonna ask this question before the run posts lol.. If the GGEM caves towards the nam will you guys toss it after calling it the best model all year? Just playing Devils advocate If the GGEM caves to a GFS solution I personally will not toss it, I'll believe the euro/GFS and toss the nam for sure If the ggem, euro and gfs look the same then I'd toss the nam, not that I'm a big nam fan at all to begin with. If the ukmet looks like the other globals, all the more reason to throw out the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'd bet heavy now this ends up somewhere between the NAM and GFS...the GFS with every storm the last 3-4 weeks has been flat and the NAM too amped. Gfs has also been overdoing the confluence all year, while the nams been juicing up storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My NWS point and click is 4-10" by Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM looks less juicy so far, maybe a tick South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM looks less juicy so far, maybe a tick South Supposedly (as per met in New England forum) it looks south at first but comes in a bit better than 12z for those areas. We shall see. I'm liking the 00z runs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Supposedly (as per met in New England forum) it looks south at first but comes in a bit better than 12z for those areas. We shall see. I'm liking the 00z runs so far Yea I'm only out to 48hr it initialised late for me idk y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Seems fairly similar to its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here is the ggem , through hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thru 59 its a nice hit for northern areas. Yea I wasn't that far yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Weenie map comparison of 12z and 00z Def nowhere near the euro or GFS solution, somewhere between the nam and GFS whxih is probably best call as of now It ended up being juicier and better with the northern shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Weenie map comparison of 12z and 00z Def nowhere near the euro or GFS solution, somewhere between the nam and GFS whxih is probably best call as of now It ended up being juicier and better with the northern shield Not much change from 12z just less QPF overall, not counting specific areas in its precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not much change from 12z just less QPF overall, not counting specific areas in its precip shield 00z was higher with qpf than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not much change from 12z just less QPF overall, not counting specific areas in its precip shield There is def more precip than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 where do you see less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 00z was higher with qpf than 12zYes, I misspoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 How's the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 where do you see less qpfTypo, meant to say, not much change from 12z, just more qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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