IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You want the GFS to be a wrapped up bomb this far out? I don't assume that a model solution is automatically wrong at day 4, espeically when it has the support of a large number of Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Isnt the ULL still too far out to be sampled anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The models are gonna waffle back and forth this far out, this isn't news to any of you.. Let's not be at each others throats for 5 days over every model run... There is NO trend to even pick up on yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GGEM is snow to rain for the coast and snow inland. Ukie is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GGEM is snow to rain for the coast and snow inland. Ukie is nice It's not much snow south of I-87. The surface low tracks right over NJ so it's snow and then quickly over to heavy rain and then dry slot for just about everyone. Sullivan and Orange Counties would do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's not much snow south of I-87. The surface low tracks right over NJ so it's snow and then quickly over to heavy rain and then dry slot for just about everyone. Sullivan and Orange Counties would do great. It's most likely a few inches for NYC before the changeover. GGEM transfered late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The GFS just went to the opposite extreme of the 0z solution, i.e. the 0z run was the furthest northwest and amped up, and the 12z run was the furthest southeast and most strung out solution. I believe the truth is right smack in the middle. If one wants to look at the H5 setup and take the NAO, and PNA indeces at face value, which are forecast to turn negative and postive, respectively, leading up to this storm, it's very difficult to envision the 12z GFS solution. With that being said, we also have a fast and confluent flow moving through SE Canada, and if we have learned anything over the past two seasons, it's to respect the influence of the PV and its tendency to keep strong developing shortwaves suppressed. At this point I like a compromise of the two extremes, blending the 985 mb low over northern Jersey on the 0z run, with the 1010 mb low east of delaware, and we get a ~ 995 mb low just south of LI... That's my best first guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's not much snow south of I-87. The surface low tracks right over NJ so it's snow and then quickly over to heavy rain and then dry slot for just about everyone. Sullivan and Orange Counties would do great. Any details on precip totals for area. Not really concerned on precip type just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 a very sweet and stable 1042mb Atlantic High Pressure area to build from ATM even small shifts west may help the overall setup for Monday as seen here http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/OPC_ATL.gif _____________________________________ http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_atlantic_117_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's not much snow south of I-87. The surface low tracks right over NJ so it's snow and then quickly over to heavy rain and then dry slot for just about everyone. Sullivan and Orange Counties would do great. This isn't the first time you used this, where does I-87 run east west? Do you mean 287? The Tappan Zee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This isn't the first time you used this, where does I-87 run east west? Do you mean 287? The Tappan Zee? Isn't 287 in NY State techinically part of 87? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Isn't 287 in NY State techinically part of 87? Gotcha, I thought you meant that. 87 runs north south in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Isn't 287 in NY State techinically part of 87? No, 3 digit odd numbers run east west 2 digit odd numbers run north and south. like I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Gotcha, I thought you meant that. 87 runs north south in my neck of the woods. Yeah once you get to the Rt. 17 exit it shifts north to south, when I say south of 87 I'm imagining that line continuing East and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No, 3 digit odd numbers run east west 2 digit odd numbers run north and south. like I-95. Probably a discussion for the banter thread but isn't it 87 until the Tap and then it become 87 again once you get passed the exit for Rt. 17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No, 3 digit odd numbers run east west 2 digit odd numbers run north and south. like I-95. Not that it matters, but this isn't true. A 3 digit interstate *beginning* with an odd number is a spur into/out of a major metro area, e.g. 195. A 3 digit interstate beginning with an even number is a loop around a major metro area, e.g. 287. The spurs and loops have no correlation between direction and nomenclature, as the nomenclature is derived from the parent road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not that it matters, but this isn't true. A 3 digit interstate *beginning* with an odd number is a spur into/out of a major metro area, e.g. 195. A 3 digit interstate beginning with an even number is a loop around a major metro area, e.g. 287. The spurs and loops have no correlation between direction and nomenclature, as the nomenclature is derived from the parent road. Makes sense, 287 I believe is technically the "beltway" around NYC or the route you would want to take in order to avoid traffic, just like the DC Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Makes sense, 287 I believe is technically the "beltway" around NYC or the route you would want to take in order to avoid traffic, just like the DC Beltway. Exactly. And in New Jersey, 287 definitely runs North / South, and is signed accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Probably a discussion for the banter thread but isn't it 87 until the Tap and then it become 87 again once you get passed the exit for Rt. 17? Its important for weather. If you connect 287 in Westchester, going west across the tap, then it connects to 287 again going south into NJ. This is a great line to describe "North and West." It makes a nice arc. I live just north of 287 in westchester, and many times that line seems to work out for a rain/mix to snow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Its important for weather. If you connect 287 in Westchester, going west across the tap, then it connects to 287 again going south into NJ. This is a great line to describe "North and West." It makes a nice arc. I live just north of 287 in westchester, and many times that line seems to work out for a rain/mix to snow boundary. Right, well for the record if said south of 87 I was referring to south of 287 in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Exactly. And in New Jersey, 287 definitely runs North / South, and is signed accordingly. Right but then once you get to the southern portion it starts running West to East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This whole convo should be taking place in banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 your GEFS Ens bonus coverage hows that look? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012812/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_19.png Atlantic helper (hp) shows up (maybe?) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012812/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_19.png this run has its bumps and lumps ...yet keeps us involved WPC lines up and deeper at 1004mb est http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How does the Euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How does the Euro look? Warm and dry for the coast. Far NW sections do a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Warm and dry for the coast. Far NW sections do a little better. The 12z EURO is out already for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 12z EURO is out already for Sunday? That was for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That was for the clipper. Oh ok i thought this thread was for Super Bowl into Monday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 For the second system the Euro is coming in flatter and early on everything looks to be setting up for a south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The Euro is completely dry for Sunday for everyone within 150 miles of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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