MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hope you guys get smoked on Monday. Man do we feel for you, absolutely brutal bust. Euro verbatim (for what it's worth) would do much to sooth frayed nerves. Probably would exceed my all-time pack from Jan '11 in Beantown if it pans out. How much did you get in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Through 87hrs the 12z GFS is much slower dropping in the arctic energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Through 87hrs the 12z GFS is much slower dropping in the arctic energy. Looks less phased to me at hour 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Looks less phased to me at hour 93 It's just slower, hasn't even attempted the phase yet. Probably will lead to a more Euro esque solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Looks less phased to me at hour 93 wouldn't that lead to a more progressive solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The changes at H5 are pretty wild from 06z for a day 4 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 PV is pressing further south and less phasing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 wouldn't that lead to a more progressive solution... Let us get through the entire run before asking questions, thanks. Otherwise it causes too much clutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 In this case, less phasing and a flatter flow probably isn't a bad thing. WAA snows already moving in before kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's not going to phase at all, not with the energy over the southwest and not with the polar jet. The PV pretty much remains intact. Weak surface low pops over northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How much did you get in Boston? Difficult to say, but 30" seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Weaker system but more snow and less mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You wanted to at least see the Polar jet phase in, even if a little late. Otherwise everything stays very weak. FWIW a lot of the 00z Euro ensembles had this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's not a good run at all, most places are under 0.10" LE. We just went from one extreme to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nice overrunning event for the area. Way less phased and further south. Less than 0.10" LE is not a good event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hmmm Snow88 thinks that a dusting is a good event. And the GFS has smoothed out precip fileds so the reality would probably be flurries at best. The surface low tracks hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Less than 0.10" LE is not a good event Snow88 thinks that a dusting is a good event. And the GFS has smoothed out precip fileds so the reality would probably be flurries at best. The surface low tracks hundreds of miles offshore. 5 days away . It's good to see the GFS like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Less than 0.10" LE is not a good event GFS adds 1"-3" Friday and then another 1"-2" Sunday night. For Queens and east, it would add to the already big snow packs. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The initial northern stream energy has to be quicker. We need it to get hung up down south and wait for the polar jet to drop in, otherwise it's game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS adds 1"-3" Friday and then another 1"-2" Sunday night. For Queens and east, it would add to the already big snow packs. I'll take it. I wasn't talking about Friday, we have a seperate thread for that. The GFS is scattered snow showers for the second event. It's not a good run at all. BTW, snowpack out here is over 10". A lot of that falling last Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 5 days away . It's good to see the GFS like this. I don't know how you could possibly say that was a good run. A tick slower and we see nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can we change the title of this thread to only be 2/2 event? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 lets keep the 48hr thread starter window intact just a hunch the GEFS -Ens comes in with better news op run is just one slice of the pie track is within the bubble http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012812/gfs_T850_us_20.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You want to see the models with a big storm this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I wasn't talking about Friday, we have a seperate thread for that. The GFS is scattered snow showers for the second event. It's not a good run at all. BTW, snowpack out here is over 10". A lot of that falling last Saturday. It'll be a nice refresher to the snow pack, either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It'll be a nice refresher to the snow pack, either way. That run was dangerously close to being completely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That run was dangerously close to being completely dry. Save the agita for <72 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At this time, it's probably too soon to go beyond the idea that a storm could impact the region in the 2/1-2 period. Details in terms of its impact will need to be determined. FWIW, the 1/28 6z GFS showed 1.51" qpf and the 12z run showed 0.10." This is a huge change, so additional guidance will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That run was dangerously close to being completely dry. You want the GFS to be a wrapped up bomb this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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