Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z Ukie total QPF. Wow. Congrats cyclone! uk 72.gif Haven't known the UKIE to have a dramatic wet bias, so that is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And IND is on board now. Looks like I-70 corridor and north for the WSW. My initial call is no more than 6" here. Temps need a little more look to feel more confident about my call. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY MORNING.HAZARDOUS WEATHER...* ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING.IMPACTS...* SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.TIMING...* THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAYMORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION ISANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLYSUNDAY EVENING. ALSO THIS IS WHEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ISMOST LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE.CONFIDENCE...* CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS AND THEEXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't like our snowfall chances at all, but even a couple of inches on top of a decent slug of rainfall should make for quite the skating rink on Monday. Might be pretty nasty. I think we're ok still. Not for max amounts but a good dumping. Cannot have any more north/warm trend whatsoever though. Where's all this rain that you're talking about? Model soundings from various models are all or just about all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Would be nice to see some decent LES in Hamilton. Orientation looks good, however I'm skeptical about anywhere in SON expect potentially far SW seeing anything appreciable. Hopefully a trend north for the Ontario folks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Haven't known the UKIE to have a dramatic wet bias, so that is interesting. Yeah. 12z run is toasty too. IND makes a run at 45˚. I think we're ok still. Not for max amounts but a good dumping. Cannot have any more north/warm trend whatsoever though. Meh, I've thrown in the towel on much of any snowfall for us. Plus, we all know how WAA is handled by these wonderful models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah. 12z run is toasty too. IND makes a run at 45˚. Meh, I've thrown in the towel on much of any snowfall for us. Plus, we all know how WAA is handled by these wonderful models... I'm going to assume you're playing the reverse psychology game because you're way too smart to actually believe this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Stupidly obvious axiom for the day but...EURO coming north will give the UKIE/NAM/RGEM camp a whole lot more credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Always an issue around here. I normally knock off a couple inches from the models due to dry air. The NWS DTX office is pretty good about including it in their forecast. In fact several years ago (8-9 years) I had a really good talk to one of the DTX METS (no longer works there) about the dry air we constantly fight here with storms as it seem we fight it more than other areas. Just out of curiosity, how did that discussion go? What were the conclusions concerning that issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice. Greater than 8" along/southeast of Winthrop Harbor to Dixon line? I like it and agree. Yep, that's basically how our new storm total grid looks. Liking the lake enhancement transitioning to lake effect fluff late Sunday night into Monday morning. Over 200 j/kg of lake induced CAPE on the ORD BUFKIT sounding from the NAM. Inversion heights aren't that high (almost 6kft) but really good omega right through the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Stupidly obvious axiom for the day but...EURO coming north will give the UKIE/NAM/RGEM camp a whole lot more credibility. It's still 2 days out. Gotta be sure the NAM/RGEM aren't pulling the old okie-doke with their (relatively-speaking) uber-amped solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The good thing on the warmer NAM for here is that there's a period of heavy precip with amounts around .5 in a 6 hour period between 12-18z Sun. If we get a burst like that, then I think it should be able to force temps to cool to/slightly below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd say the 12z GEFS as a whole are slightly further north than the OP, but nothing jaw dropping. Couple Ukie/NAM and a couple south with an overall slightly north look but all have MBY getting at least some accumulation which is nice to see. Just out of curiosity, how did that discussion go? What were the conclusions concerning that issue? I'll PM you to keep it out of this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's still 2 days out. Gotta be sure the NAM/RGEM aren't pulling the old okie-doke with their (relatively-speaking) uber-amped solutions... GEFS seem to be giving a little credence to a more northerly solution, but overall I'm not a huge fan of the synoptic setup. Quick moving, low amplitude s/w with downstream confluence. Seems like a good candidate for a more sheared out storm but there are always exceptions to the rule. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Area Forecast DiscussionNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1136 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 After coordination with WPC and surrounding offices, a winter storm watch is being issued for a large part of our forecast area, except along and south of I-70. Forecast soundings from the southeast CWA indicate a fair amount of mixed precip or even rain on Sunday, lowering the threat of significant snowfall in that area. Further north, heavier amounts of 6-8 inches are indicated north of a Havana to Paris line, with the heaviest snow axis expected to set up a little further north in east central Illinois. Updated products will be out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep, that's basically how our new storm total grid looks. Liking the lake enhancement transitioning to lake effect fluff late Sunday night into Monday morning. Over 200 j/kg of lake induced CAPE on the ORD BUFKIT sounding from the NAM. Inversion heights aren't that high (almost 6kft) but really good omega right through the DGZ. Seems like we're on the same page. Also like how the mid-upper levels stay fairly saturated till about 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Still think this thing isn't done bumping North a bit. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Through 24hr the nrn wave looks a tad stronger on the Euro and maybe a touch south with also more aggressive precip in the plains compared to the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Really looking like a nice setup for the Chicago area. If there's no shift south in upcoming runs, would not be surprised to see someone manage 15+, most likely near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Through 48 hours the 12z Euro is essentially the same. Only cosmetic differences. Edit: Slightly more QPF north of the sfc low so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 At 54hr, sfc low def is a tad stronger/north with more QPF up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Euro inched north a tad. No huge changes overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah baby step north, height field at 54hr looks a tad more tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Euro has a similar track to the 12z GFS/GGEM. The NAM/UKIE/RGEM are in there own camp. I feel more comfortable saying the GFS/EURO/GGEM are the way to go with this one. Looks like I'm out of this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Euro has a similar track to the 12z GFS/GGEM. The NAM/UKIE/RGEM are in there own camp. I feel more comfortable saying the GFS/EURO/GGEM are the way to go with this one. Looks like I'm out of this one? Well, the 12z EURO inched north, so I don't think it's time yet to throw in the towel. And temper your expectations. The goal is to get some shovellable snow up here, not a crippling snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Buried on the Euro. Wowza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Buried on the Euro. Wowza No sharp cutoff? How's it look 20 miles north of you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z vs 0z comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 No sharp cutoff? How's it look 20 miles north of you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Buried on the Euro. Wowza Irregardless of the differences in QPF, nice to have no true outliers at this point with regards to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Beautiful tropical Pacific moisture feed with into the southern stream system on water vapor. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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