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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Looking at the rather amazing cold poised to spend at least the next two weeks in the area after this storm moves off into the Canadien Maritimes & the Atlantic Shipping Lanes...this will be no February 2006 repeat...millions of people are going to have a major problem on their hands in the short (and maybe medium term) with this thing. 

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

lol RGEM 18z is like the complete opposite of the NAM. 5-10" NENJ/NYC. 15" east end. Sends all of the best into New England....WAY different. It's a good model and the NAM is really alone with a solution like that (in regards to the price spreading west), with even the euro not doing anything to that degree.

nyc is gunna have 6 inches before the storm really even explodes...toss

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

lol RGEM 18z is like the complete opposite of the NAM. 5-10" NENJ/NYC. 15" east end. Sends all of the best into New England....WAY different. It's a good model and the NAM is really alone with a solution like that (in regards to the price spreading west), with even the euro not doing anything to that degree.

Some parts of NYC already have near 5 inches. Euro is 20+. Too close to discount the Nam.

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

Upton's discussion is one for the archives. 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
997 LOW ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA AT 4 PM PER MSAS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE
WRN ATLC. THE RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED BANDING OVER LI...WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN S OF LI FLOWING NWD.

THE END RESULT IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THRU
THE EARLY EVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH PER HR INTO THE 2-4
INCH PER HR RANGE BY 10PM OR SO. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.
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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

It's still dragging the SLP towards strong convection on the northeast side, other than that things look about the same.

What's your take on it ? NAM (and the euro kind of ready to fight, but reluctant) vs GFS and most other models.....To be honest, if the NAM did not show a ridiculous amount of snow I think we'd toss it (if all of the other models showed 30" and the NAM showed 10").....It's hard to accept that it would be a solution VS all else, considering it's accuracy.....But, this storm has come a long way.....

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