burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 CMC looks pretty durn good. Lost of moisture to work with and plenty of cold air to work with as well. This one still isn't over but we need model consistency. Hope the doc changes it's mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Folks, I like the 12Z GFS run, the third GFS run in a row with a bonafide Miller A. I love where it is almost as much as if it showed an actual widespread snow. We already have had more than enough runs of the various models to allow us to assume that just a little jog back north (like on the 0Z GFS, GFS/Euro runs from Thu night and earlier, and the several members of yesterday's 12Z GEFS) could easily put many well inland board members into a sig snowfall of multiple inches on 1/22-3 the modeled 2M temperatures be darned. I'm with ya Larry I just worry about how the models have handled these before...seems like most of them have just been southern sliders when we actually get there that are too weak to do much. Hopefully this bucks the trend. Canada certainly says you're on the right track with your thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 When Larry starts a post with "Folks," you know it's going to be a good one. Larry, do you think the models will continue to tick colder as we get closer, or that the colder look to the 12z was a direct byproduct of the more suppressed storm track? I say it is a byproduct of the more suppressed storm. I don't think it needs to be any colder based on 850's clearly being cold enough. I'm not sweating the too warm 2M temperatures. I'm assuming they'll verify several degrees too warm wherever there is sig and steady enough precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's amazing what jet wavelengths can do to a setup like this, the stronger jet and longer wavelengths are going to be a primary contributor to the suppression of this storm, and will shove it further to the south & east... OTOH, if we had this coming about 3-5 weeks later into @ least the 2nd week of February, it would be game, set, match for a snowstorm in the SE US. not so much now however, as we're likely going to be splitting hairs to receive considerable wintry precipitation... First, let me say that it's great having you on the forums this winter... Just so I'm not confused here, what's your reasoning behind the idea that a setup like this in middle Feb would be more condusive to a storm as compared to now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Big spread on GFS ENS at 120 hours, but only 2 or so are very suppressed with this...remember what I said yesterday, you just do not see systems track over the central or SRN Gulf into Florida, they either fizzle over Texas or eject out over the Gulf States and not much further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 First, let me say that it's great having you on the forums this winter... Just so I'm not confused here, what's your reasoning behind the idea that a setup like this in middle Feb would be more condusive to a storm as compared to now? Thanks, it all has to do w/ the annual jet behavior and I explained yesterday on here w/ various examples including Blizzard of 1895 & 1899 (both mid Feb), Late February 1914, March 1927, Mid February 1960, & February 2004, that if you are going to produce a snowstorm or especially an overrunning event in the southeastern US w/ a trough over the Gulf of Alaska (which naturally likes to haul in warm southwesterly flow off the Pacific & envelope N America w/ mild air) it has to usually occur between mid February and early March... Thus, normally a trough over the Gulf of Alaska & Alaska itself in the heart of the winter when the jet is near its maximum amplitude equates to a ridging downstream in the southeastern US or even across the US in general, however, as you get later in the winter, that same exact pattern, due to the jet naturally losing amplification and also the wavelengths shortening can actually crash & sneak a trough into the SE US... If this pattern showed up in mid February thru early March, we'd run the risk of getting clobbered, not the case here however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The great Drunk DOC is up on stage, what hit is he going to sing today?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Big spread on GFS ENS at 120 hours, but only 2 or so are very suppressed with this...remember what I said yesterday, you just do not see systems track over the central or SRN Gulf into Florida, they either fizzle over Texas or eject out over the Gulf States and not much further south... Snow, do you know why systems don't tend to track across the mid Gulf? Is there some time of land interaction or temp gradient that tends to keep the surface low tight to the Gulf states? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Very early indications are that the 12Z drunk Doc will tick at north of the 0Z drunk Doc. Let's see. But will it then be too warm for many? edit: should be a better result. Could even be a lot better. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 as of now...much more interaction with the 2 streams..TONS of qpf over TX so far at hr 102...even if this doesn't get all the way there, its a step in the right direction...The southern piece is Further EAST this run, and the northern piece is further WEST so far...*again, even if this doesn't get all the way back* its a STEP in the better direction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Precip on drunk Doc still struggling to move northward enough. That will need work lol. Edit: But I like this run. Make no mistake about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah, the 12z Euro is closer to what a lot will want to see. Not quite there yet though. Lots more stream interaction though compared to the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Big spread on GFS ENS at 120 hours, but only 2 or so are very suppressed with this...remember what I said yesterday, you just do not see systems track over the central or SRN Gulf into Florida, they either fizzle over Texas or eject out over the Gulf States and not much further south... The 12z Euro tracks the low just south of Tampa. Do you think that could be a realistic track or is it still too far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Compare the 12z to the 0z valid 0z Saturday. Due to the stream interaction, this is a look much closer to what many snow fans would want to see. Much better looking system. However, still positive tilt, and still not there. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 12Z Euro: Note the reblossoming of precip. on the backside along the coast on Saturday fwiw. Interesting if nothing else. Anyone see this? Possible implications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah, the 12z Euro is closer to what a lot will want to see. Not quite there yet though. Lots more stream interaction though compared to the 0z. agreed, Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 A quick update on the models, but a much better and a video update coming later...Lets just say that things are still possible for a nice Storm for the Southern plains and Southeast later this week. GFS and EURO, plus the GEM all took good *steps* or **trended** better today. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 If anyone is wondering why the 850's drop so much with the precip.: the 850 TD's are like -10 C or colder just in advance of the precip. So, the evap. cooling up there is very strong. Edit: the 12Z JMA has a quite suppressed Miller A. That's fine with me at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Some sub 1000mb's showing up. Im cautiously optimistic about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Big spread on GFS ENS at 120 hours, but only 2 or so are very suppressed with this...remember what I said yesterday, you just do not see systems track over the central or SRN Gulf into Florida, they either fizzle over Texas or eject out over the Gulf States and not much further south... Just to back that up this is kind of close to the look we saw last year with our big storm. Models had it suppressed until about 2 days out and then it just started pushing precip further and further northwest. There was more cold air to work with but man looking back at the maps that were posted on the surface precip wise it almost looks identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Though hardly any further north, if at all, note that the 12Z EPS mean is sig. wetter than the 0Z EPS mean for 1/23. Nice trend. The Miller A is very much there. The 850's remain cold enough on the northern side. The main question as of now is whether or not it will end up too suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Some of the runs (i.e. the 12z Euro) actually seem to suggest a Miller B with a secondary low forming east of Florida while the primary low weakens across NE Gulf of Mexico. This is likely due to the suppression of the northern stream energy (one way to get a Miller B typically observed further to the north). Might be something to look out for. This type of Miller B (if you can call it that at such low latitude) might actually be more favorable for the SE in this particular situation as it allows the system to move out ahead of the northern stream energy and if it were to partially phase or phase it may even slow down the northern stream energy, allowing for further strengthening and/or slowing of movement. And since we'd be on the backside of this set up were wouldn't have nearly as much to worry about in terms of a warm nose/wintry mix (would likely be rain or snow) like in traditional Miller B setups in our parts. GaWx: This could possibly explain at least part of the the blossoming of precipitation on the backside on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Some of the runs (i.e. the 12z Euro) actually seem to suggest a Miller B with a secondary low forming east of Florida while the primary low weakens across NE Gulf of Mexico. This is likely due to the suppression of the northern stream energy (one way to get a Miller B typically observed further to the north). Might be something to look out for. This type of Miller B (if you can call it that at such low latitude) might actually be more favorable for the SE in this particular situation as it allows the system to move out ahead of the northern stream energy and if it were to partially phase or phase it may even slow down the northern stream energy, allowing for further strengthening and/or slowing of movement. And since we'd be on the backside of this set up were wouldn't have nearly as much to worry about in terms of a warm nose/wintry mix (would likely be rain or snow) like in traditional Miller B setups in our parts. GaWx: This could possibly explain at least part of the the blossoming of precipitation on the backside on Saturday. Wasn't the March ice storm a Miller B in the same fashion with the primary transferring from the Gulf to the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Wasn't the March ice storm a Miller B in the same fashion with the primary transferring from the Gulf to the Atlantic? I believe so, I have pretty vague memory of the setup tho. It is not a terribly uncommon set to my knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Some of the runs (i.e. the 12z Euro) actually seem to suggest a Miller B with a secondary low forming east of Florida while the primary low weakens across NE Gulf of Mexico. This is likely due to the suppression of the northern stream energy (one way to get a Miller B typically observed further to the north). Might be something to look out for. This type of Miller B (if you can call it that at such low latitude) might actually be more favorable for the SE in this particular situation as it allows the system to move out ahead of the northern stream energy and if it were to partially phase or phase it may even slow down the northern stream energy, allowing for further strengthening and/or slowing of movement. And since we'd be on the backside of this set up were wouldn't have nearly as much to worry about in terms of a warm nose/wintry mix (would likely be rain or snow) like in traditional Miller B setups in our parts. GaWx: This could possibly explain at least part of the the blossoming of precipitation on the backside on Saturday. Smoked. Thanks. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There's an eerie similar look much like Feb 12th 2010 with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There's an eerie similar look much like Feb 12th 2010 with that. Except it was MUCH colder in '10 It's the ONLY time living here I knew it was going to snow(but you knew that already ), it was just a matter of how much precip would actually fall. My favorite storm ever btw.....nice to see you stop by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This one is a delicate balance system- too positive tilt/less phasing, suppressed and everyone gets the shaft. Too phased/more neutral tilt then most get rain. We need the sweet spot in between- and if that happens I cannot really see a huge snow for anyone, maybe mostly 1-3", more in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Smoked. Thanks. Interesting. No problem. Enjoy reading your thoughts likewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The 12z EPS Mean looks a lot better here! The mean is back closer to 2" again with a decent number of members showing decent hits. It's only about 1" for RDU, though, and even less than that for CLT. I am not sure if that is because of warm surface temperatures or what. KATL's is around 1/3" with only a few members showing hits. CAE's is basically 0" with just three members showing a T or dusting. KAVL's is close to 3" with most members showing at least something. I believe so, I have pretty vague memory of the setup tho. It is not a terribly uncommon set to my knowledge. Gotcha. I remember it not really blowing up until it got to the Carolinas. I do not believe GA really saw much precip (maybe I'm remembering wrong, though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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