FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Specifically at hour 42: Dew points (temps would only be a couple of degrees warmer with saturation) http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=12&fhour=42¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Simulated radar http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Tell you what looks good on the 12z Nam radar is hour 84. Nice little blob rolling I to NW NC that would be pure snow. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Meteogram spits out .33" zr on the NAM 12z for RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Meteogram spits out .33" zr on the NAM 12z for RAH That's warning criteria! Most likely .5 or more for your location. Now lets see what the GFS has to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 12z GFS stays dry. Less than .1 at RDU. At this point we would be wise to assume that this event will be a light event ( <.25). **going on that I would consider this a win situation if I personally get .1 of ice accrual. Not saying the NAM is incorrect just saying there is no real reason to say the GFS is incorrect. The one thing that most models have is low level moisture. I think that we will get some ice but we may not get a handle on how much until the actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Good test for the para with the higher resolution, both with precip and temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Good test for the para with the higher resolution, both with precip and temperatures. Let's not forget the PGFS will go live (and replace the existing GFS) this week, so I would personally quit using the "regular" GFS and stick with the PGFS. Really no longer in a "test" phase - it is the new model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 How does the para look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Good test for the para with the higher resolution, both with precip and temperatures. Para was bone dry too. RGEM was less than a .1". I have a feeling it's going to spit on us for a couple of hours, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 How does the para look? East, drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Guess it's the NAM vs. the GFS. They seem to be world's apart on the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Thanks Jon and Pack. Why is it that potential frozen events always trend drier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Guess it's the NAM vs. the GFS. They seem to be world's apart on the precip. Right now it's NAM v/s RGEM/GFS/Para/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Thanks Jon and Pack. Why is it that potential frozen events always trend drier? So we just take the models that show it dryer and forget the one that shows more precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Guess it's the NAM vs. the GFS. They seem to be world's apart on the precip. Unfortunately, the GFS seems to win that battle more of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Thanks Jon and Pack. Why is it that potential frozen events always trend drier? We always get the south trend for events like this, and then we get the north trend when we don't want it . Essentially...we suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 So we just take the models that show it dryer and forget the one that shows more precip? You've been reading these boards long enough to know that the NAM usually overestimates precip, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 You've been reading these boards long enough to know that the NAM usually overestimates precip, right? Yeah, but it could be right sometimes. The potential is there. We just have to wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The NAM may be overestimating, but the other models are still showing precip. albeit light...but could still cause trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The NAM may be overestimating, but the other models are still showing precip. albeit light...but could still cause trouble. With all the low level moisture I don't think any model has a handle yet. Could be a lot of freezing drizzle to a quarter inch. We just need to continue to see the moisture on each model run until the event plays itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 With all the low level moisture I don't think any model has a handle yet. Could be a lot of freezing drizzle to a quarter inch. We just need to continue to see the moisture on each model run until the event plays itself out. Yeah I agree, this is a nowcast event...we aren't going to get any better right now, gotta wait for the HRRR and keep watching the SREF, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Splitting the difference over FAY and the Sandhills and we'd be looking at about .2 inch of ZR. That's still enough to be pretty nasty down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Looks like the 30-60E -VP relation to wintry weather in central-eastern NC continues to pick up where it left off last winter when all 6 RAH past events occurred w/ -VP in the 30-60E longitudinal band & w/ a few also being accompanied by CCKWs... The snowfall observed in the SC midlands on November 1st this year courtesy of a powerful cold-core ULL also occurred when the 30-60E Velocity Potential was negative (as indicative by the blue colors, dashed contours are indicative of CCKW filtered anomalies). I'm still patiently waiting to see the first bust in real time, i.e. when a winter storm shows up & the 30-60E VP is +. If this threat for freezing rain tomorrow night & Wednesday is realized, this correspondence between Equatorial VP & wintry wx in central-eastern NC would be 8 for 8 since the start of last winter... Here we go again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 So does that mean I'm going to get more than a trace of freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm realistically hoping for .1 to .15 of ice with this event. I also really hope this is not the "big storm" of the 2014-2015 winter. It would be worse that the 2011-2012 winter that gave us this as the "big storm": http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20120219.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm realistically hoping for .1 to .15 of ice with this event. I also really hope this is not the "big storm" of the 2014-2015 winter. It would be worse that the 2011-2012 winter that gave us this as the "big storm": http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20120219.gif I would take that and call it a winter right now. Nino is dying a quick death, take it while we can. Euro is up, let's see if it can give us a .1" for Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I would take that and call it a winter right now. Nino is dying a quick death, take it while we can. Euro is up, let's see if it can give us a .1" for Wed. Wettest Euro run yet at 12z.Euro is a really solid hit for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Euro definitely wetter, more than .1", don't have final yet to see how close it is to .2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Cold Rain better get his flashlights ready. This is about 20-30 miles from being a big deal, per the Euro. Already is a big deal just east of Wake County down 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Euro definitely wetter, more than .1", don't have final yet to see how close it is to .2". Looks like the Webber Rule might be in effect here! So, for Brickster, we have: Nam/Euro/Gem/Navgem vs. GFS/PGFS/Rgem/Slimgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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