Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

1/13, 1/14 - Freezing rain threat


packfan98

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 837
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It will be interesting to see where the advisory (i'm sure one will be issued) is located...  How far NW and SE it goes.

RAH basically thinks the NE piedmont and parts of the coastal plain have the best shot.

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE

LOW LEVELS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG ~1040 MB SURFACE

BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.

OUR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR MOST IF

NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NC... WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MEANWHILE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL APPROACH

THE AREA FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE

REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR

DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE

TO THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THOUGH

APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN

SANDHILLS.

GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LIGHT PRECIP...

WE MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING

DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH

WEDNESDAY MORNING (AS WE DO NOT HAVE SATURATION ALOFT ABOVE

-10C)... MAYBE EVEN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...

PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES DO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET

MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST GFS SOUNDING SHOWING THE

LOWEST 3-4 KFT OF THE ATMO BELOW FREEZING ALONG WITH A COLD NOES OF

AROUND -6 TO -7 DEGREES C EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR

NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... WILL OMIT FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS

TIME AND FOCUS THE P-TYPE ON FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THESE

AREAS (MOST IMPACTFUL FOR THIS EVENT).

WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY LESS THAN

A TENTH OF AN INCH... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S

TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND

CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE

STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

DESPITE THE LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS... ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE

ACCRUAL COULD CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR WEDNESDAY

MORNING... DESPITE THE LOW PRECIP TOTALS... ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED

SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER... ALL WILL HINGE

ON THE PRECIP... AS WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH... IF ANYTHING WEST OF LINE

FROM ASHEBORO TO BURLINGTON. THUS... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT

WE MAY NEED A WINTER WX ADVISORY OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT (IF

NOT ALL) AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY

EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... THOUGH HOW FAR WEST TO TAKE AN

ADVISORY IS STILL VERY UP IN THE AIR. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE HIGHS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL

OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY... LIKELY NEAR DAYBREAK. THUS... WILL GO WITH

HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH...

AND LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE

EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR

DAMMING WEDGE TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY

ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS

THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT LINGERING BELOW FREEZING THE LONGEST GIVEN

THE PRECIP SHOULD END IN AN WEST TO EAST FASHION ON WEDNESDAY.

HOWEVER... WE SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED INTO THE CAD AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST TO

THE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING

LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE MAIN SURFACE

HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THUS... WILL KEEP

ANY MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS A COLD RAIN.

EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 30/LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SE.

&&

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't think cold will be a concern in CLT/GSP!

Just nice drizzle!

NAM simulated radar looks nice through the event (starting at hr 24 -- hit next to see following hrs):

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...