blizzardof96 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z Euro ensembles looking surprisingly bullish on potentially more of a GFS type track. Note the two camps within the suite, signalling considerable uncertainty with this storm. The southern area has a track from OH to near Kingston while the northern area shoves the LP well up into S/C On. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z Euro ensembles looking surprisingly bullish on potentially more of a GFS type track. Note the two camps within the suite, signalling considerable uncertainty with this storm. The southern area has a track from OH to near Kingston while the northern area shoves the LP well up into S/C On. Screen Shot 2014-12-30 at 3.15.30 PM.png Interesting track, I assume they would show a nice area of ice with that track, similar to the GGEM. I wouldn't mind a nice 1/2" ice storm actually, but no more than that, I like the way the trees look with 1/2" ice on them, but more than that it is power outages for days and lots of branches cleanup for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 NAM's going to fun once it gets the storm into its range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The synoptic comparison is there but there are 2 issues, one the flow is more southerly this time compared to then, and two it was much colder in 1999 compared to what is forecast. Basically it would end up being lousy for most of the subforum if it ended up taking a blizzard of 99 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Getting a little too OT bantery in here. Try to keep it storm related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 18z GFS basically looks like the 12z EURO. Just a cursory look. In a rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'll give the gfs points for consistency. Let's see if it can avoid being consistently awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 18z GFS basically looks like the 12z EURO. Just a cursory look. In a rush. Track is similar but thermals look much better. 925/850mb 0c lines huge the lake shore so most of the city is all snow for the duration of the event. A 4-5" event GTA wide if taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Para GFS is amped up as usual, it looks like it would cross Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Still a long ways to go, but it's fun looping the snowfall maps and watching the northern stream dive SE and the southern one come up from SW. Looking decent for many of us in the sub forum....at this time. Changes likely, and more let downs coming though I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Right, agreed. It's a total rainer for us, but hopefully those to our north/west can cash in on some snow. Somebody needs to get off the schneid... Well I'm not ready to go with total rainer yet. The Euro and really nothing else has been able to settle on a solution yet. I'd definitely lean against an all wintry outcome at this point but I think we're still in play for something wintry even if it's only a small part of the storm. Well, if it's going to be a rainer for LAF, it's definitely going to be rain here too. When Hoosier talks about it not being a complete shutout on "wintry" precip, I'm sure that he's alluding to a zr front end thump and some mood flakes at the end. Guess I'll look forward to my 2" from the clipper next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well, if it's going to be a rainer for LAF, it's definitely going to be rain here too. When Hoosier talks about it not being a complete shutout on "wintry" precip, I'm sure that he's alluding to a zr front end thump and some mood flakes at the end. Guess I'll look forward to my 2" from the clipper next Tuesday. Still a long time for this to change. The Christmas Eve system became a completely different storm than was modeled even inside of 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I wonder if we'll start to whiplash back to a flatter solution in the next set of model runs. I noticed several more of the 18zgfs members were flatter and the 00z nam is significantly flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I wonder if we'll start to whiplash back to a flatter solution in the next set of model runs. I noticed several more of the 18zgfs members were flatter and the 00z nam is significantly flatter. I am definitely expecting this to flatten out from where it is now. To which degree I'm not so sure, but I think it's coming. Let me also clarify why I think this is justified: I am very uneasy about the close proximity between the two shortwaves. I fear that it is quite possible that in future runs, we're going to see the northern stream act as more of a "kicker" that pushes the southern stream system further south and east. This evolution would seem to be ideal for a more strung-out southwest flow event. There is also the possibility of a full phase, in which case we would have an impressive rainstorm on our hands. Regardless, I'm excited to track this storm. The dynamics are something I feel we haven't seen in a while. It's much more fun to watch the run-to-run changes at 500mb with this type of set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I wonder if we'll start to whiplash back to a flatter solution in the next set of model runs. I noticed several more of the 18zgfs members were flatter and the 00z nam is significantly flatter. Yeah there was more spread on the 18z GFS members than you'd like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I am very uneasy about the close proximity between the two shortwaves. I fear that it is quite possible that in future runs, we're going to see the northern stream act as more of a "kicker" that pushes the southern stream system further south and east. This evolution would seem to be ideal for a more strung-out southwest flow event. There is also the possibility of a full phase, in which case we would have an impressive rainstorm on our hands. N Regardless, I'm excited to track this storm. The dynamics are something I feel we haven't seen in a while. It's much more fun to watch the run-to-run changes at 500mb with this type of set up. It basically boils down to whether its a cold light rain or a heavy warm rain...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It basically boils down to whether its a cold light rain or a heavy warm rain...lol Indeed. That pesky northern stream always seems to be more an enemy than a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like at hour 48, the northern stream shortwave is just entering North America. Seems to be stronger and a bit more invasive than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Big change aloft on the 00z GFS by 81 hours. Substantial s/w over Idaho where none existed on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Big change aloft on the 00z GFS by 81 hours. Substantial s/w over Idaho where none existed on the 18z run. Was just going to say that. Quite a massive change actually. Additionally, the surface reflection is a very poor representation of what is actually happening in the upper atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Still managing to build heights nicely out in front though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Was just going to say that. Quite a massive change actually. Not sure how it will impact our system but yeah, it's pretty noticeable lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Parallel run still pretty amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 0z GFS still tracks through Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yea not much change. Although its much weaker it still takes the same track and takes longer to drive the cold air east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yea, I have no idea what to make of this. Completely different placement of the "northern stream" shortwave. Will be interesting to see if the Euro and GEM jump to a similar solution aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well if nothing else it looks snowy next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Phasing wasn't really on the table when I started this thread. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 looks like it is trying to "phase" with the sampling picking up the northern stream s/w. Whether it can slow down enough remains to be seen. It seems like it's a very very close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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