Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 There were some decent ones in the city decades ago...but not easy to do and I'd say you would need a solid setup to pull it off. I'm not too much worried about ice potential here either. Besides the lack of snowcover and the wind off the lakes, surface temps will probably warm up quicker than modeled with the amount of WAA progged near/east of the low track. This one does have strong 33*F - 35*F and rain potential though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Stronger HP and stronger LP being depicted by the models within decent proximity to each other....that hasn't been seen too much this season thus far. Thatsa nice change of pace at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 would love it if the euro didn't roll out another strung out turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm not too much worried about ice potential here either. Besides the lack of snowcover and the wind off the lakes, surface temps will probably warm up quicker than modeled with the amount of WAA progged near/east of the low track. This one does have strong 33*F - 35*F and rain potential though... I think a lot depends on how our system evolves. A bombing solution like the GGEM would probably be more favorable for ice over a bigger area as warming profiles aloft overspread a larger area. This type of scenario would ultimately result in a change to plain rain over a bigger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 There were some decent ones in the city decades ago...but not easy to do and I'd say you would need a solid setup to pull it off. it's just really hard to get ice IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I think a lot depends on how our system evolves. A bombing solution like the GGEM would probably be more favorable for ice over a bigger area as warming profiles aloft overspread a larger area. This type of scenario would ultimately result in a change to plain rain over a bigger area. Agreed. Definitely something to watch as things continue to evolve over the next day or so. Not hopping on board any of the model trains just yet. Seems like there is too much of a spread so far, plus I don't feel like spending most of the week fretting over this like many of us did over Christmas. Though I will say, reading the discussion in the mean time has been enlightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 it's just really hard to get ice IMBY Warmer by the lake, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I think a lot depends on how our system evolves. A bombing solution like the GGEM would probably be more favorable for ice over a bigger area as warming profiles aloft overspread a larger area. This type of scenario would ultimately result in a change to plain rain over a bigger area. The ice potential would likely be over a larger area with the GGEM's solution, but it would be of shorter duration with the deep southerly flow kicking in (and mixing down the warmer air aloft faster). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 bring on another lake enhanced storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The ice potential would likely be over a larger area with the GGEM's solution, but it would be of shorter duration with the deep southerly flow kicking in (and mixing down the warmer air aloft faster). Just looking at the GGEM precip type maps, it looks like basically I-70 northward into southern WI and then over into much of Michigan (not including Detroit) would end up with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Meanwhile, the 12z UKMET is weak sauce with a weak low sliding through the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z EURO may come in warm and wet. Depends on whether the southern wave can stay progressive enough to avoid phasing too early with that northern piece dropping into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Meanwhile, the 12z UKMET is weak sauce with a weak low sliding through the TN Valley. whatever happened to the bombs away ukie of old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z EURO may come in warm and wet. Depends on whether the southern wave can stay progressive enough to avoid phasing too early with that northern piece dropping into the Plains. nice sick of these snoozers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Verbatim solutions aside, encouraging trends on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z EURO may come in warm and wet. Depends on whether the southern wave can stay progressive enough to avoid phasing too early with that northern piece dropping into the Plains. 998mb low over Toledo at 114hr. Goes from Evansville at 105hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 nice sick of these snoozers Looks like it stayed progressive enough. Hard to tell via the freebies but could be a nice hit fyby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z Euro came in NE of Toronto at 120h, need to see the inbetween frames to see what it did yet, but a much better track for the subforum than the suppressed turds it was putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like it stayed progressive enough. Hard to tell via the freebies but could be a nice hit fyby. In our backyards, 0.3-0.4" of a ZR/SN mix on the front end... then over to RN and back to wet snow on the back side. Far from over WRT p-type changes, track etc. That northern stream feature was much deeper/more progressive and the southern feature was also a tad slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like it stayed progressive enough. Hard to tell via the freebies but could be a nice hit fyby. looks like you're right, progressive enough to avoid a torch and a low end advisory hit for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 The 12z EC takes the low across the tip of Lake Erie. A wedge of warm air keeps it mostly rain for SE Michigan with all snow west of a Lansing-Saginaw line. There is still obviously plenty of potential though, even for Detroit with the low going over Lake Erie like that and not wrapping way up to the north. Everybody gets light wrap around deformation snow on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 looks like you're right, progressive enough to avoid a torch and a low end advisory hit for mby. Yup, close but Euro soundings show all snow throughout event at MDW and CGX. Warmest it gets is about +0.5C at ~925 mb at 00z 1/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A little over an inch of rain with temps of 33-34˚ for LAF on the 12z Euro. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I sure hope we get some snow finally. All the webcams around here are either brown or gray. There is snow in northern MI on my other cams I have listed on my site. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 is looking at webcams of snow on the ground a thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A little over an inch of rain with temps of 33-34˚ for LAF on the 12z Euro. Lock it up. Good thing we're not at the point where we can take this solution too seriously. That being said, my guess is it will be hard to avoid rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Good thing we're not at the point where we can take this solution too seriously. That being said, my guess is it will be hard to avoid rain here. Right, agreed. It's a total rainer for us, but hopefully those to our north/west can cash in on some snow. Somebody needs to get off the schneid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Right, agreed. It's a total rainer for us, but hopefully those to our north/west can cash in on some snow. Somebody needs to get off the schneid... Well I'm not ready to go with total rainer yet. The Euro and really nothing else has been able to settle on a solution yet. I'd definitely lean against an all wintry outcome at this point but I think we're still in play for something wintry even if it's only a small part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I sure hope we get some snow finally. All the webcams around here are either brown or gray. There is snow in northern MI on my other cams I have listed on my site. Mike Awesome cam page, thx for the link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Man watching this storm on the models is like Katy Perry's song "Hot N Cold"! Right! still a big spread on the GFS ensemble members, anything is possible yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.