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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I wouldn't trust crown map even for WNC lol. That can't be all snow.

 

For the higher elevations, it appears to be pretty much snow.  Not so much for Asheville, though.

 

I wish I could trust the 6.2" the clown prints out for GSO. :lol:

 

I'm pretty sure it's 3rd and 25 and we're probably going to have to punt next down barring a miracle.

 

It's kind of phenomenal how the Euro has a wrapped-up beast while the Canadian basically has no storm at all (barring a little overrunning snowfall for N NC on 12/18).

 

 

Good news is, there's our "Christmas" storm back near El Paso, and it's gonna bring the goods , just in time!

 

Nah, looks like the Euro is just going to hold it back there for eternity, so nothing for us!

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

 

It's kind of phenomenal how the Euro has a wrapped-up beast while the Canadian basically has no storm at all (barring a little overrunning snowfall for N NC on 12/18).

 

 
 

 

Nah, looks like the Euro is just going to hold it back there for eternity, so nothing for us!

 

 

Two things. First looking at 5h the CMC is on crack. It has tons of energy floating west but none of it phases at all. Like 6 pieces all just floating in tandem together about an inch apart and never interacting. It just floats west and evaporates. That isn't going to happen. The other is Euro's bias of holding back energy. At least on the Euro there is no kicker in the pac so there is a reason the energy just holds. On the CMC it holds back the energy and when a kicker of sorts comes it actually retrogrades the low west at the end of the run! The entire run just looked like it was screwed up and defied logic. No way you get that run again. In fact the Canadian ENS actually has it really close for our backyards with this storm...but not close for Christmas. 

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Is it possible the models are having a hard time getting a handle due to multipul systems in a short time frame i know its in the lr.

 

Personally I don't think that's the issue. There are two reasons we're getting different angles on this. The first being that much of this depends on how fast that 50/50 low exits. Models are toying with it leaving early and later. The second is how much energy is floating around especially in the northern branch. If something can dive down and phase like yesterday's 12z run that really changes the game and really is our best shot with it looking like that 50/50 low not sticking around for long. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Anyone have access to a good UK Met map? Ones I'm looking at look like a good setup. Cutoff low in the west with the 50/50 in good position...only out to 120 though. 

I don't. I would be (personally) interested in dew point depicts from different models. The 6z GFS shows our sub 30 degree dew points hustling out as the precip comes in. One thing many of us know is the models have had problems in the past with the low level temps in CAD setups; even if the CAD is weak. 

Hour 144 dew points:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=06&fhour=144&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Hour 144 6 hour precip:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=06&fhour=144&parameter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

 

Hour 150 dew points:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=06&fhour=150&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Hour 150 6 hour precip:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=06&fhour=150&parameter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

Anyone have access to a good UK Met map? Ones I'm looking at look like a good setup. Cutoff low in the west with the 50/50 in good position...only out to 120 though. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_0z/ukloop.html

 

You can see 144 at 5h here... looks strung out; but its hard to say what it's about to do since you can't see vorticity on that map.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH staying conservative at this range:

 

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: THE MODELS REALLY START TO DEVIATE FROM ONE
ANOTHER DURING THIS TIME...BUT GENERALLY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SE U.S. AND
A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT TRACKS AND WHEN VARY BETWEEN THE
MODELS. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UP INTO
THE CAROLINAS LATE SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS IT MOVING NE INTO
EASTERN TN BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE
SATURDAY. HOW AND WHERE THIS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS WILL
DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WE GET. ALOFT...THE GFS IS
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE S/W MOVING ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...THEN DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW OVER TN ON SATURDAY.
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...BUT HOW LONG IT LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND WHAT KINDS OF
THREATS (P-TYPE/SEVERE) IT WILL PRESENT WILL DEPEND ON WHICH MODEL
YOU WANT TO BELIEVE. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MODELS AND THE FACT THAT THE TIME IN QUESTION IS SO FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST...FOR NOW WILL JUST INCREASE CLOUDS THURS NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL
RESERVE MENTION OF ANYTHING ELSE FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
FUTURE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

 

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
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Good morning everyone!  New forecast video is up now, the model discussion video will be up at 10am E/9am C.  Have a wonderful day, and thank you so much for liking my page, sharing the videos, sharing the page with your friends and inviting them to like it.  Can't thank y'all enough!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Anyone have access to a good UK Met map? Ones I'm looking at look like a good setup. Cutoff low in the west with the 50/50 in good position...only out to 120 though. 

 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_0z/ukloop.html

 

You can see 144 at 5h here... looks strung out; but its hard to say what it's about to do since you can't see vorticity on that map.

This is all I got. Surprisingly WxBell doesn't even carry it in their product package. The next run should be in range for what we want. 50/50 still there however looks inland to me.

IWNPV2o.gif

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