Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[Jabcv14]

Lots of people are finally talking about this threat now. Most weather sites and a couple other places has a mix or snow for Western NC areas. It'll be interesting to see how this folds the next few days.

[deltadog03]

Just made a bit post about it on FB.

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl

[burgertime]

I think the 12z GFS is going to be a better run. That low around the GL is a lot stronger than previous runs and is moving slowly east. That should keep everything suppressed. Out to 96 on 5h it looks a lot different from the 6z in the west. Think this will probably take a step in the right direction but trying to predict what will happen on a 5h map so far down the line is like trying to accurately guess which mid major school will get an upset at March Madness before it begins. 

[franklin NCwx]

Still think the gfs 8s gonna cut.

[burgertime]

Still think the gfs 8s gonna cut.

 

It most likely will...but this does look like more of a step towards the Euro. More energy floating around in the northern branch on this run with the low to our north slower. 

[franklin NCwx]

It most likely will...but this does look like more of a step towards the Euro. More energy floating around in the northern branch on this run with the low to our north slower.

yes it does.

[franklin NCwx]

For all the "euro is always king" crowd this will be your year. The gfs is terrible with southern stream energy, while the euro does well.

[burgertime]

Well this may turn into an interesting solution with the GFS. Much better look with confluence to our north while that shortwave in the southwest has no northern interaction at all. It's starting to push east now. Let's see where this one goes. 

[franklin NCwx]

Man gfs is trying.

[deltadog03]

As yall have said, this might turn into an interesting GFS Run.

[burgertime]

As yall have said, this might turn into an interesting GFS Run.

 

All that energy out west...there will also be a round 2 a few days later on this run as well. 

[burgertime]

Looks like it's starting to cut. We need that high to drop out of Canada in a more easterly fashion to help keep this thing suppressed. 

[franklin NCwx]

Too much ridging out ahead of it. H5 is gaining latitude.

[deltadog03]

at hour 150, its so trying you guys.  lol  the SFC low is over south MS.  There is no good high in the  CAD regions.  This run prolly won't do it, but its a HUGE step toward the euro's solution last night.  

[deltadog03]

All that energy out west...there will also be a round 2 a few days later on this run as well. 

agreed!  I actually think we need snow cover as far south as we can with next weekends storm.. will really force the 2nd one underneath.

[burgertime]

at hour 150, its so trying you guys.  lol  the SFC low is over south MS.  There is no good high in the  CAD regions.  This run prolly won't do it, but its a HUGE step toward the euro's solution last night.  

 

That high was close it was starting to slide into position but got pushed back at the last minute. 

[burgertime]

GFS PARA looks a LOT like the Euro last night with it's depiction at 5h. 

[deltadog03]

This is closer.  Tells me that EURO's Shift last night was legit and not a fluke.  The GFS is trying to go toward that idea.  Rain for most of us this run.  Maybe some snow NW TN and AR and MO and KY.  The high, as you said, never really gets into position.  Likely a GFS error, but its a step.  I so see that big as* ball of fun moving South toward Socal.  That should bowl east with so much suppression.  Could be FUN for Christmas week.  

[burgertime]

This is closer.  Tells me that EURO's Shift last night was legit and not a fluke.  The GFS is trying to go toward that idea.  Rain for most of us this run.  Maybe some snow NW TN and AR and MO and KY.  The high, as you said, never really gets into position.  Likely a GFS error, but its a step.  I so see that big as* ball of fun moving South toward Socal.  That should bowl east with so much suppression.  Could be FUN for Christmas week.  

 

That is a ball indeed lol....it needs a kicker bad. Looks like a fantasy snow storm could be incoming! 

[Jon]

The 00z EPS mean looks more Miller Aish compared to the 12z EPS mean.  There's still definitely some members sending it inland based on hr 180, but by hr 192 the mean SLP track is roughly over Savannah, GA.  I would expect to see the members showing wintry precip to rise in number (those meteograms don't come out until later, though).

Meh. I'm wanting to see it look more Miller-Aish but it's still showing a strong Miller-B look even though I would say there's not as much spread if you will with mslp anomalies, which I think thats what you were seeing as well. I think the only way we're going to get something worthwhile out of this is if it bombs with the perfect track bringing in cold air, otherwise it will simply be lacking. Slow down, speed up, whatever...I think this one needs to bomb and it can't just slide off the coast like a lot of the "trends" are showing. The high looks better though at the same time period not sure if you noticed that, so there's that. I just can't believe the trends we're seeing right now and I mean that literally, not buying it haha, but at least the Chinese model is on board!

[franklin NCwx]

Para is closer to the euro

[burgertime]

Don't even bother looking at the GFS after it looses resolution it turns ugly  .  GFS is trying real hard for the 20th storm, low is all strung out but there's enough energy to spread moisture across much of NC with 850's just squeaking by. SFC temps are a problem though. 

[franklin NCwx]

Para is a weak southern slider that lacks qpf but 850's hang right around freezing in the mtns.

[Jon]

50/50 is sliding out faster this run, I don't think its gonna cut it.

[burgertime]

CMC looks close to something big....only out to hour 159 on my maps. 

[Jon]

Don't even bother looking at the GFS after it looses resolution it turns ugly  .  GFS is trying real hard for the 20th storm, low is all strung out but there's enough energy to spread moisture across much of NC with 850's just squeaking by. SFC temps are a problem though. 

yeah that look is just ugly. Nothing good about that run. I mean a 1018mb low off the coast of NC? We're going to need something about 19 mb stronger with the 50/50 intact if we want this to work out.

[burgertime]

@162 on the CMC it looks close for snow in northern GA. 

[burgertime]

CMC doesn't cut it. Sends the low out to sea but damn it was close! SFC temps and 850's were there for NC and a lot of the upstate just couldn't get a strong enough low. Of course with a stronger low that WAA can be killer anyways. 

[franklin NCwx]

If it's too strong the low will cut.

[burgertime]

If it's too strong the low will cut.

 

Don't have access to the 5h maps yet but just the track looked like there was enough suppression to keep the low from cutting...CMC had it just far enough north it couldn't gain much steam.