SR Airglow Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 EURO caves to the other guidance and now advertises a nice little event for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 EURO caves to the other guidance and now advertises a nice little event for NNE.How did the euro "cave" if all 12Z guidance went that direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 How did the euro "cave" if all 12Z guidance went that direction? Yeah. I think it just seems that way since it is the last model to come out at 12z...so when they all move in tandem, the Euro being the last to come out has the appearance of "caving" even though it didn't really do anything the other guidance didn't do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 So just a wire to wire rainer now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Yeah. I think it just seems that way since it is the last model to come out at 12z...so when they all move in tandem, the Euro being the last to come out has the appearance of "caving" even though it didn't really do anything the other guidance didn't do. Yeah sorry, cave isn't the right word, follow is the better way to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 So just a wire to wire rainer now? Maybe you get a coating in the beginning and a hundredth or two of ice, but you're mostly rain I would suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Maybe you get a coating in the beginning and a hundredth or two of ice, but you're mostly rain I would suspect. Sounds like an event straight out of the 80's..Looked good and then crapped the bed as we closed in. God we need some blocking. Now it'll be 60 again on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 So just a wire to wire rainer now? No, it will be a period of light snow and then prob some icing over the interior..esp north of the pike. This was a low qpf event to begin with..so the idfference between a few tenths of snow and an inch is pretty small in the model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Looks like we will end up in an advisory event here HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME300 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ001>010-013-022000-NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-300 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEWHAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO START TUESDAYNIGHT...WITH THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.THEREAFTER...WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT THESURFACE AND ALOFT. A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AWAYFROM THE COAST LATE TUE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND DURING THEMORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY FURTHER NORTH. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BYAFTERNOON. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AROUND ATENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE ON TOP. SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS LIKELYFOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 Congrats dry slot, SR, SL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Here's what we're working with in the offices at 06z tomorrow night. We talk about the model handling of boundary layer temps all the time on here, and we can try and correct for that some when we bring the data into our system. There is only so much we can do though. This is basically the best resolution we can get of each of the big four models (80 km ECMWF, 40 km GFS, 12 km NAM, and 10(?) km CMC). CMC and NAM give you the strongest CAD signal, unsurprisingly. You can see how the GFS, even with some correction at this point has LEW at 32, and IZG at 28 with all the other guidance being much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 When possible that's why I prefer using these (downscaled NAM grids or hi-res like the ARW or NMM) NamDNG ARW Not this SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 GFS is and has been the warmest and CMC is the coldest with Nam and Euro sitting in between, So do you weigh the others more heavily with using some of the GFS or toss the GFS all together and go more with a Nam/Euro/CMC blend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 GFS is and has been the warmest and CMC is the coldest with Nam and Euro sitting in between, So do you weigh the others more heavily with using some of the GFS or toss the GFS all together and go more with a Nam/Euro/CMC blend? As a rule I try and avoid the GFS 2 m temps altogether. A lot of it is accumulated knowledge of who dams in and who doesn't. Then you just play with blends until the grid looks the way you want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 As a rule I try and avoid the GFS 2 m temps altogether. A lot of it is accumulated knowledge of who dams in and who doesn't. Then you just play with blends until the grid looks the way you want it. Ah, Ok, Models for the most part seem to struggle with the depth of CAD as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Ah, Ok, Models for the most part seem to struggle with the depth of CAD as a whole When you think about it a 12 km NAM grid can just about resolve the temp difference from PWM to GYX. And the GFS40 just about PWM to IZG. We know PWM will torch, and IZG will be dammed in. So does the GFS. However we know between those points there will be areas with CAD too, probably much closer to PWM than IZG. The GFS has trouble resolving that boundary. For that matter the ECMWF we see does too, since it is 80 km. The full 13km ECMWF version would be much better and on par if not better than the NAM if we had that data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 When you think about it a 12 km NAM grid can just about resolve the temp difference from PWM to GYX. And the GFS40 just about PWM to IZG. We know PWM will torch, and IZG will be dammed in. So does the GFS. However we know between those points there will be areas with CAD too, probably much closer to PWM than IZG. The GFS has trouble resolving that boundary. For that matter the ECMWF we see does too, since it is 80 km. The full 13km ECMWF version would be much better and on par if not better than the NAM if we had that data. So you don't have access to the 13km data? I think i remember Ekster telling me when i was at the WFO that your Euro data was not good.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 So you don't have access to the 13km data? I think i remember Ekster telling me when i was at the WFO that your Euro data was not good.........lol We pay for it on a website like everybody else. But as far as what comes into AWIPS and GFE, it's 80 km "hi-res" Euro. You can get away with that aloft, but at the surface forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 We pay for it on a website like everybody else. But as far as what comes into AWIPS and GFE, it's 80 km "hi-res" Euro. You can get away with that aloft, but at the surface forget about it. Is the 13km version available to you if you want it? I assume its a pricing issue as they don't provide the data inexpensively, I mean i can upgrade my pkg with there upgraded data but its pricey depending on the vendor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Is the 13km version available to you if you want it? I assume its a pricing issue as they don't provide the data inexpensively, I mean i can upgrade my pkg with there upgraded data but its pricey depending on the vendor That's well above my pay grade. It's basically that the NWS doesn't want to pay for all of the Euro data. Same reason why only the national centers have access to the Euro ensembles, not the individuals WFOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 That's well above my pay grade. It's basically that the NWS doesn't want to pay for all of the Euro data. Same reason why only the national centers have access to the Euro ensembles, not the individuals WFOs. Yeah, I certainly would not fork it over, I do it as a hobby, I do have limited access to the ensembles, But not all the plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 That's well above my pay grade. It's basically that the NWS doesn't want to pay for all of the Euro data. Same reason why only the national centers have access to the Euro ensembles, not the individuals WFOs. So do you guys just look at the data on WxBell/SV(or whatever source you pay for) and then if you want to use it, find something that's close to it from what you have and use that in the grids? I've seen references to the EUROens in AFD's all the time, not sure how it gets worked into the forecast though. Anyway, made a little map for this event for the page/site because we're testing out new mapping software, wouldn't usually bother for something like this but it's an excuse to play with new toys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 So do you guys just look at the data on WxBell/SV(or whatever source you pay for) and then if you want to use it, find something that's close to it from what you have and use that in the grids? I've seen references to the EUROens in AFD's all the time, not sure how it gets worked into the forecast though. Anyway, made a little map for this event for the page/site because we're testing out new mapping software, wouldn't usually bother for something like this but it's an excuse to play with new toys Pretty much how it goes. We look at the 13 km and ensembles here (at least Ekster and I do) and find a way to tweak our forecast towards that if we like the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Pretty much how it goes. We look at the 13 km and ensembles here (at least Ekster and I do) and find a way to tweak our forecast towards that if we like the solution. Makes sense. Sort of disappointing(although not surprising considering budget woes) that NWS won't pay up for the actual data, but that's probably more as a result of prioritizing limited funds towards things like keeping the lights on and paying employees rather than relative luxuries such as ECMWF data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Boy NNE is going to have an interesting week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory for 1-3" plus some ZR. Not much but will be something semi-interesting to watch tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 PF in mid-winter form where 1-3" is merely semi-interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'll take it...four wintry events and its the 2nd of Dec. Looks good north of Albany tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 PF in mid-winter form where 1-3" is merely semi-interesting Haha, I think an inch will do it...that's more like what I was alluding to. And remember how many 1-3" events we get here...I've had like 5 so far. The difference is this one is synoptic in nature. The RGEM looked nice though, maybe towards the higher end? Euro to me looked like 1" snow then some zr/ip. And wow ALY's map they are going big in the southern Adirondacks with 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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