packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That trend to go negative tilt earlier and earlier cannot be ignored. Those of us east of Raleigh are going to be on the outside looking in on this one I am afraid. A lot can change but there is good model agreement between the GFS/Euro now, atleast at our latitude, still don't think the Euro tracks this over BOS. A track just over/outside of HAT is most likely, still won't do it for RDU but is great for areas west of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks! Just what I wanted to hear. What you want to know? The Euro op tracks the SLP just inside HAT, the Euro ENS mean is about 50 miles east of HAT with really good agreement actually which looking at the individual runs. There is a big cluster just about 25 miles east of HAT. I think this tracks just over HAT or just a smidge east of HAT, IMO, which is where the 12z yesterday had it. Now if the 12z Euro ticks west again then maybe I am wrong, but I would guess the Euro Op starts to windshield wipe over HAT the next couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 SREF mean made a huge shift West. I imagine the NAM might start to get a hint with the 12z run. I have a feeling this storm is going to be depressing for my area. A warm boundary layer always seems to win out in my location while area's all around me switch over to snow. At least the heavy precip should come through early in the AM, so maybe that will help. Right now, the boundary layer depicted by the GFS/Euro just looks too deep for most outside of the mountains to get any snow, IMO. Let's keep an eye on the shortrange models when they pick up the storm and hope that they show a better low level profile under the heavier rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z NAM keeps ticking closer but still not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The BL on the GFS is just going to be a tough nut to crack. However, it would seem the BL Is significantly cooler on the euro. If you look at your 925MB temps, you can see they are below zero from about CLT up to HKY. With a surface temp in that area anywhere from 33-35, I believe your column would be isothermal and whatever fell after that point(Hour 84) could be a mix of snow/rain or even all snow if the rates are high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z NAM keeps ticking closer but still not there. For my area, I love it. Keeps an eastward depiction of at least one model (even if it is the NAM). Hopefully we can get the GFS and euro to shift east some (...being greedy for the RDU area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That trend to go negative tilt earlier and earlier cannot be ignored. Those of us east of Raleigh are going to be on the outside looking in on this one I am afraid. You and many in NE NC will be pulling for the 12z NAM. Keeps the storm off shore and weaker but gives your area some precip with 850s below freezing. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141123+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 For my area, I love it. Keeps an eastward depiction of at least one model (even if it is the NAM). Hopefully we can get the GFS and euro to shift east some (...being greedy for the RDU area). To have any shot we need the 6z GFS track, maybe a smidge east, and we need heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I have a real hard time buying this for GA no images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 To have any shot we need the 6z GFS track, and we need heavy precip. Or the 0z which had colder 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Huge grain of salt for GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The BL on the GFS is just going to be a tough nut to crack. However, it would seem the BL Is significantly cooler on the euro. If you look at your 925MB temps, you can see they are below zero from about CLT up to HKY. With a surface temp in that area anywhere from 33-35, I believe your column would be isothermal and whatever fell after that point(Hour 84) could be a mix of snow/rain or even all snow if the rates are high. Good analysis, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z GFS is out to 45. At 5h our energy is digging a little more than 6z and might be a hair slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I know it's just TWC , but they just showed a map for Wednesday , and it had snow line running N-S , on a line from HKY,CLT,CAE - points west was snow into NGA , pretty deep into SC like Aiken , FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z GFS is out to 45. At 5h our energy is digging a little more than 6z and might be a hair slower. Stronger further SW, a little sharper, this is going to be huge run for people west of 85 is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Western trend in full effect on 12z GFS. Could be a tad warmer though but we shall see. Energy looks a little slower at 500mb, might get a better phase with second piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z GFS is a good bit warmer vs. 6z. That northern energy is diving down but not phasing as quick as the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 @72 it's much wetter. This could be a big run for WNC like Pack said. BL temps are god awful @72 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Western trend in full effect on 12z GFS. Might be a tad warmer though but we shall see. Energy looks a little slower, might get a better phase with second piece. Yep, ticks west from 6z, a little slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We never really get a phase so this run is a lot warmer. Wetter but warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think you can kiss this threat goodbye for anyone east of 85, this is going to be a huge winter storm for GSO and points NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 925 temps make it as fa south as Roxboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS has been warm for a while. Euro has been colder. It's like bizarro world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think you can kiss this threat goodbye for anyone east of 85, this is going to be a huge winter storm for GSO and points NW. Yeah, this really looks like it will evolve much like the Dec. 09 storm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS has been warm for a while. Euro has been colder. It's like bizarro world. Euro will def. be interesting on this run. Even if we can get 850's and thickness right will it stick? Probably not but it's November and snow around Thanksgiving will be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, this really looks like it will evolve much like the Dec. 09 storm did. Great for your neck of the woods...I might have to go a day earlier to my mom's in Winston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I like where we sit in WNC. Boone could really get hammered and if that energy phases just a few hours earlier then what the GFS shows this could be a great snow for Asheville. NWF will be in full effect either way Thursday morning and travel through the gorge may be impossible. If you are headed to Tennessee or west, I suggest traveling Tuesday night but most probably have to work Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro will def. be interesting on this run. Even if we can get 850's and thickness right will it stick? Probably not but it's November and snow around Thanksgiving will be great. It's going to be really hard to get it to stick, especially after today's heavy rain. I'd just like to see it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's going to be really hard to get it to stick, especially after today's heavy rain. I'd just like to see it snow.Also, highs around 70 here tomorrow , won't help much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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