buckeye Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Hey Buck, I though CMH got 3.8, not 3.6 (your sig line)? I looked on the nws site for CMH and it said 3.6...where did you guys get 3.8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I looked on the nws site for CMH and it said 3.6...where did you guys get 3.8? There was one of those special reports posted yesterday with area snow totals and it had 3.8 for CMH. Maybe it was wrong or updated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 You're right....my goof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 You're right....my goof cool! I mean it's only 0.2 inches....that's what she said! Zing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 No matter what kind of warm up we have this weekend into next week, I do think this extreme early shot of winter is definitely a precursor for a wild winter ahead. Maybe not sustained cold, but probably some crazy swings, and potentially big storms. That's fine by me. Cold is boring without any storms to track. All I ask is that the cold spells arrive AFTER we get snow! Other than that I'm fine with alternating warm ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 cool! I mean it's only 0.2 inches....that's what she said! Zing! lol. the way my wife guesses snow depth...I can only imagine what she tells her girlfriends about me.... . No wonder I'm always saying, "ladies my eyes are up HERE", Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 That's fine by me. Cold is boring without any storms to track. All I ask is that the cold spells arrive AFTER we get snow! Other than that I'm fine with alternating warm ups. yup. For you young whipper snappers, I recall it was rainy, foggy, and in the upper 40s the day before THE BLIZZARD. Volatility feeds the monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just had a pretty heavy snow shower put a fresh coating on almost everyting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just had a pretty heavy snow shower put a fresh coating on almost everyting. Saw that per radar and now snowing lightly here too. Can't argue with mood snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Saw that per radar and now snowing lightly here too. Can't argue with mood snow. Slowed up quite a bit for a few but as since picked back up and coming down pretty hard again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Still snowing lightly here. Picked up half an inch of "mood" snow, enough to cover the roads and sidewalks. Judging from the radar it looks like everyone from here on west to Dayton probably got the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 This week should drop the monthly mean into the 30s, which would make it a top 20 coldest if it holds through the rest of the month, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 yup. For you young whipper snappers, I recall it was rainy, foggy, and in the upper 40s the day before THE BLIZZARD. Volatility feeds the monsters. After seeing Bufdalo the past 2 days, the blizzard seems really insignificant lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 After seeing Bufdalo the past 2 days, the blizzard seems really insignificant lol. It's a terrible comparison. The blizzard was a 952 bomb over Cleveland effecting tens of millions of people. Something like 50 people died in Ohio alone. Snowfall wasn't what made the blizzard...THE BLIZZARD. CMH only had 6" of snow and yet it paralyzed this city far worse and far longer than our March '08 22 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 It's a terrible comparison. The blizzard was a 952 bomb over Cleveland effecting tens of millions of people. Something like 50 people died in Ohio alone. Snowfall wasn't what made the blizzard...THE BLIZZARD. CMH only had 6" of snow and yet it paralyzed this city far worse and far longer than our March '08 22 incher. Agree strongly with Buck---It was the wind, the growling, shrieking, thumping constant wind.........Creating area wide drifts that made travel impossible and fool hardy... It will live in my memory for a long , long time----- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Agree strongly with Buck---It was the wind, the growling, shrieking, thumping constant wind.........Creating area wide drifts that made travel impossible and fool hardy... It will live in my memory for a long , long time----- ...it was also the temp plunge. We went from like 40s to single digits in a few hours....everything flash froze which made the snow drift and move even faster over surfaces. But yea, the wind was insane. It really was the perfect storm. Comparing lake effect to a synoptic blizzard is like comparing an F5 tornado to Hurricane Katrina. Might have been one hell of a tornado, but no one really remembers Possum Bluff, Oklahoma getting wiped off the map, unless you lived there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 ...it was also the temp plunge. We went from like 40s to single digits in a few hours....everything flash froze which made the snow drift and move even faster over surfaces. But yea, the wind was insane. It really was the perfect storm. Once again we are in perfect agreement---Your statement about the temp drop was a great reminder that in the Dayton area, at least we had decent snow pack before the Blizzard , and as the storm wound up there was fog , as the warmer air over road the snow pack----Good Times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's a terrible comparison. The blizzard was a 952 bomb over Cleveland effecting tens of millions of people. Something like 50 people died in Ohio alone. Snowfall wasn't what made the blizzard...THE BLIZZARD. CMH only had 6" of snow and yet it paralyzed this city far worse and far longer than our March '08 22 incher. Agreed, but imagine what 88" would do to Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Agreed, but imagine what 88" would do to Columbus well we could play hypothetical back and forths all day long. There's a reason why 88" of snow fall is limited to extremely small geographic areas with very specific microclimate conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lots of weather extremes to deal with across Texas and the nation over the next ten days.....(From Larry Cosgrove)!! 1) The majestic storm now moving east-southeast through the Gulf of Alaska will dig into Texas by Saturday afternoon, perhaps as far south as San Antonio by the afternoon of November 22. This feature appears to be set to take a path from S TX to S IL, then on into Lower MI toward the QC Laurentian Shield. Of interest here is the system's ability to tap the equatorial moisture axis below Mexico and Central America, and its predicted central pressure of 972 MB when it reaches Lake Huron on Monday morning. The disturbance is going to generate one hell of a windstorm in the Great Lakes and Midwest. 2) Severe thunderstorms will kick off Friday afternoon and evening over the Big Country of Texas, then slowly expand in coverage and intensity through the Interstate 35 and 45 corridors on Saturday and Saturday night. Interestingly, the NAM and GGEM series seem to be developing an MCS that batters the Houston TX metro and then goes on to wreak havoc on the Golden Triangle cities and the Interstate 10 cities of Louisiana. We have two threats emerging: flooding rainfall and hail/lightning displays. Some of the thunder will reach well into OK and AR. 3) As the surface low deepens and moves northeastward, the cold air mass will modify radically in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Appalachia, with heavy rain and thunderstorms moving over a melting snowpack. I really feel sorry for parts of NW PA and W NY. To go from 7 feet of snow to 2 feet of water in the streets will not be enjoyable. 4) The cold air mass that follows the Saturday to Monday storm will dig down into Texas and the Deep South for a couple of days, then lift out ahead of the next storm in the sequence, now well east of Japan with a moisture fetch out of Indonesia. 5) I fully believe the ECMWF model suite with its blocking pattern into Alaska, a +PNA/-EPO hybrid that teleconnects well with a full-latitude trough and Arctic intrusion which reaches Mexico and Central America. Will there be a storm with this powerful cold shot. Yes, and although the track forecast this far out is uncertain, there is a credible notion that a Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard trajectory may be realized. With monstrous cold unheard of for Thanksgiving weekend. Sleep well tonight. LikeLike · · Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Through yesterday, November is running in the 8th coldest position on record. Taking into account the brief warm up followed by more cold to end out the month, this November could end up as a top 5 coldest ever. It is also in 15th place for snow, and that could increase a bit by the end of the month as well. Top 10 Coldest Means 1880: 32.8 1976: 33.9 1967: 36.6 1951: 36.7 1910: 37.0 1950: 37.1 1996: 37.4 2014: 37.5 (through the 20th) 1995: 37.7 1892, 1903, 1911, 1936: 38.3 8 of the 12 winters (1880, 1976, 1967, 1950, 1995, 1892, 1903 and 1911) were historic with above average snowfall and below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Freezing rain advisory would probably have been a good call from ILN instead of nothing. This morning was a mess and it caught a lot of people off guard. Just now getting above freezing. edit: oops just saw we had one. Must have gone up early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You and the northern OH guys may want to keep an eye on the Wed/Thu east coast storm. Euro keeps edging west with every run. Still not much for OH with the 12z run, but it's getting tantalizingly close. You never know I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You and the northern OH guys may want to keep an eye on the Wed/Thu east coast storm. Euro keeps edging west with every run. Still not much for OH with the 12z run, but it's getting tantalizingly close. You never know I guess. ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_15.png Not even on my radar. I have to admit I've been watching it, but not for our area, I'm just fascinated at the differences in models. When do you ever see the euro advertising a coastal 4 days out with the NAM and GGEM out to sea? Pretty strange. If this coastal hits, it'll be a nice coupe for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If this ends up hitting eastern PA, I will regret not going home there for Thanksgiving this year. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not even on my radar. I have to admit I've been watching it, but not for our area, I'm just fascinated at the differences in models. When do you ever see the euro advertising a coastal 4 days out with the NAM and GGEM out to sea? Pretty strange. If this coastal hits, it'll be a nice coupe for the euro. Haha, fair enough. From what I glean from the mets in the northeastern sub-forums, the Euro usually takes the other models to the woodshed with Miller A's. I guess we'll eventually see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha, fair enough. From what I glean from the mets in the northeastern sub-forums, the Euro usually takes the other models to the woodshed with Miller A's. I guess we'll eventually see. my guess is the euro is right with the coastal, but may have come to far west and amped....which I've seen it do many times before in this time frame. I bet it corrects east and a bit less amped and the ggem meets it. Probably a nice wet thump for places just west of I-95....DC probably ends up with some form of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So the way things are shaping up, December is going to come in pretty warm and stay that way for a while. We all know what Jym Ghanal says...the pattern that sets up early on in December, is the pattern we get more or less for the entire winter. Winter cancel then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So the way things are shaping up, December is going to come in pretty warm and stay that way for a while. We all know what Jym Ghanal says...the pattern that sets up early on in December, is the pattern we get more or less for the entire winter. Winter cancel then? The way I look at it (the glass is half full approach) a warm start to December could give us a better chance at a cold and snowy Christmas. I'd rather have snow on the 25th than the 2nd. As far as an overall pattern for the season - what does a cold November indicate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So the way things are shaping up, December is going to come in pretty warm and stay that way for a while. We all know what Jym Ghanal says...the pattern that sets up early on in December, is the pattern we get more or less for the entire winter. Winter cancel then? that worked well last year....but usually ends up failing. I'm not sure why he brings this up EVERY winter. It's about as reliable as the rings on wooly caterpillars, and yet he preaches it like gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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