buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 That would be sweet to add on to whatever we get tonight. Whatever falls will stick on Wed that is for sure and w/ pretty good "fluff meter" in effect! those setups can produce for us...not unheard of to pull out 1-3". Remember the squalls that came in the day after the clipper late last January? I think we picked up like 3 or 4" that day. To continue the glass-half full mode, both the ggem and euro bring a low up to our southeast hr 216. Euro is pretty bullish with it with several inches of snow to Ohio. Meanwhile the Canadian brings another clipper thru Ohio with similar qpf amounts as the current clipper...on Friday. Wow this isn't like me being all optimistic...don't get use to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 so ILN is going 3-5" for CMH, didn't feel 6" min would be achieved....sounds good. Ok, not meaning to leapfrog the clipper, (we've pretty much dissected that all we can), I was always interested in the squall potential on Wednesday. The flow off lake Michigan is perfect for those long, (rare), fetches that can set up and give some quick loving to the area, not to mention caa. ILN mentioned this in the AFD: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LOW LEVEL CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING A DECENT 1.5 PV ANOMALY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA...SUB ZERO TEMPS ARE A GOOD BET WITH WIND CHILL READINGS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE 15 TO 30 BELOW RANGE POSSIBLE. March 1, 2005 comes to mind with the long lake fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 those setups can produce for us...not unheard of to pull out 1-3". Remember the squalls that came in the day after the clipper late last January? I think we picked up like 3 or 4" that day. To continue the glass-half full mode, both the ggem and euro bring a low up to our southeast hr 216. Euro is pretty bullish with it with several inches of snow to Ohio. Meanwhile the Canadian brings another clipper thru Ohio with similar qpf amounts as the current clipper...on Friday. Wow this isn't like me being all optimistic...don't get use to it. 12z still has this? I thought it dropped it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 12z still has this? I thought it dropped it? oops, i had that backwards, it's the ggem that is bullish. The euro still has it day 7, but it's more southeast/weaker....still there though. euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 here's the ggem, it puts down a few inches...this is hour 168. Only thing to take from it, is it's a pretty good signal for potential in that timeframe. I think the gfs is way southeast, (expected). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 oops, i had that backwards, it's the ggem that is bullish. The euro still has it day 7, but it's more southeast/weaker....still there though. Cool. Thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Well I know I have'nt been as active in the last couple of years( been in Florida with Family concerns) but that doesn't stop me from rooting for you guys..Heres to a good covering ....71 F here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 My final call! Decent snow to help our feelings hopefully lol http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-is-back-snow-on-the-way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well it's think'n about it: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25nc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 and it has begun in SW Greene Co., light dusting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Busting down here in Cincy land. At LUK right now and we MAYBE have 1/2". Southern gradient was sharper than forecast I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Ended up with 3" here on the northside of Newark. The clipper looked like it got clipped once it crossed into central OH. Oh well, better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 4.5" of fluff here in SW Greene Co., I stood in front of the garage and let out a good burp, cleared the whole driveway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 4.5" of fluff here in SW Greene Co., I stood in front of the garage and let out a good burp, cleared the whole driveway! this is the dream storm for snow removal companies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 5"-6" between Columbus and Circleville. KCMH had 4.5" at 5am, so probably a bit more than that and closer to 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 5"-6" between Columbus and Circleville. KCMH had 4.5" at 5am, so probably a bit more than that and closer to 5". I didn't measure with a tape or anything but it looked like a solid 3" imby. One of those rare times when the airport does better than I do. Although you could even tell on radar that from about I-70 and south the radar returns were better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 those setups can produce for us...not unheard of to pull out 1-3". Remember the squalls that came in the day after the clipper late last January? I think we picked up like 3 or 4" that day. To continue the glass-half full mode, both the ggem and euro bring a low up to our southeast hr 216. Euro is pretty bullish with it with several inches of snow to Ohio. Meanwhile the Canadian brings another clipper thru Ohio with similar qpf amounts as the current clipper...on Friday. Wow this isn't like me being all optimistic...don't get use to it. self bump....this looks like fail /\. I was really thinking we'd have better snowshower activity today with that cold air coming in. Granted activity has increased over northeastern OH and points immediately west....so maybe we can still squeak something out this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Looks to be snowing pretty good between Springfield and Columbus--I-70 getting covered and down to tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ILN regarding Sun/Mon. Like I've said earlier in this thread, we've had an unusual amount of freezing rain events already, albeit minor. Might be a signal that this is the year for a good ole fashioned icestorm. It's been a long time. Actually I think it was the GHD storm a few years ago, but that turned over to plain rain before things got too ugly. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE PULLED MOISTURE INTOTHE REGION AND MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIP OVERNIGHTAND EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS AFREEZING RAIN EVENT. AS THE FORECAST AND SYSTEM UNFOLDS...WEWILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE CHANGEABLE PTYPES BUT COMING FROM ACOLD SNAP THE PROBABILITY OF A FREEZING RAIN INCREASES A BUNCH ANDIT SHOULD BE MENTIONED AS THE PROBABLE PTYPE. HWO HAS/WILL BEUPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ILN regarding Sun/Mon. Like I've said earlier in this thread, we've had an unusual amount of freezing rain events already, albeit minor. Might be a signal that this is the year for a good ole fashioned icestorm. It's been a long time. Actually I think it was the GHD storm a few years ago, but that turned over to plain rain before things got too ugly. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE PULLED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS A FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AS THE FORECAST AND SYSTEM UNFOLDS...WE WILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE CHANGEABLE PTYPES BUT COMING FROM A COLD SNAP THE PROBABILITY OF A FREEZING RAIN INCREASES A BUNCH AND IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED AS THE PROBABLE PTYPE. HWO HAS/WILL BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT. Hopefully the qpf will be on the light side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I see lots of schools are already calling off for tomorrow with the expected wind chills. Stay warm down there in my former Buckeye State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 00z NAM gives some love to CMH Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah, the NAM has upped the snow for Thursday with each of the last 4 runs... from 0.04" to 0.11" at 0z. With solid ratios, that could be a few inches. GFS has barely anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Buckeye, next week does look like something to watch. Euro keeps us mostly ice (Cincy and Cbus) but light QPF. Hopefully that qpf stays light if its ice. What does not seem likely is heavy snow. Looks like mid-levels will warm. Question is, do we get a strong enough wave to pump surface temps above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah, the NAM has upped the snow for Thursday with each of the last 4 runs... from 0.04" to 0.11" at 0z. With solid ratios, that could be a few inches. GFS has barely anything. sref mean is right at 1 inch. I think 1" is the top end and .5" is the most likely. I think we wake up tomorrow with a thick dusting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Buckeye, next week does look like something to watch. Euro keeps us mostly ice (Cincy and Cbus) but light QPF. Hopefully that qpf stays light if its ice. What does not seem likely is heavy snow. Looks like mid-levels will warm. Question is, do we get a strong enough wave to pump surface temps above freezing? Every model brings light precip to I-70. But I agree, very little room for anything to get stronger and not cause a plain rain changeover. Worst case scenario, (if you are rooting against an icestorm), is precip starts modeling heavier, without necessarily a stronger low. I was intrigued with something after that coming up out of the gulf but models have really backed off. Euro has it but it's a miss to the southeast and it's a warm storm with only snow in the apps. After that the moderation begins. I feel like after the moderate period ends, we go into a very changeable pattern...with transient cold and warm. Doesn't feel like we'd have either a torch Feb or a locked in cold pattern either. Transient, variable, patterns can deliver memorable events.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 here's a sugar-coated, heavily glazed donut for the ohio crowd this morning. This is the euro control run for the 'potential' storm later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Spaulding Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 here's a sugar-coated, heavily glazed donut for the ohio crowd this morning. This is the euro control run for the 'potential' storm later next week. Mmmmmm ...donuts ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 another one to file under, "things I never recall happening before" Sitting at -7 degrees with a clipper forecasted to pass well to our north in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z runs of ggem and euro thru day 10. Top is ggem , bottom euro. Both accomplish these totals in 2 or 3 waves over the period. meh, I've seen this before many times since the beginning of winter. Long range models love to show a swath of snow up thru Ohio, only to have every solution fall apart somehow, someway. At this point you gotta believe law of averages has to kick in....at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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