HighTechEE Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Maybe we can get one of these this year to catch things up. This is the great cut-off low of Jan. '68, I was 8 years old and in Nelsonville Ohio (NW corner of Athens Co.) we got 28 inches of snow in a day and a half! http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?mod=ncep&yyyy=1968&mm=01&dd=15&run=00〈=en&area=na Afterwards it melted some then refroze and you could walk on top of it! We carved out big rectange chunks and made igloos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I didn't see this posted here yet, but NWS ILN did confirm one tornado on Christmas Eve. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH1022 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014...BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO NEAR LANCASTER IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIOON DECEMBER 24TH 2014...LOCATION...2 MILES WNW OF LANCASTER IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIODATE...DECEMBER 24, 2014ESTIMATED TIME...5:16 PM ESTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...70 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...30 YARDSPATH LENGTH...0.6 MILEBEGINNING LAT/LON...39.728N/82.634WENDING LAT/LON...39.733N/82.624W* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWSSTORM DATA....SUMMARY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON OH SURVEYED DAMAGE NEARLANCASTER IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIO ON DECEMBER 24, 2014.IN COLLABORATION WITH FAIRFIELD COUNTY EMERGENCYMANAGEMENT...ANALYSIS OF DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OFTHE RIVER VALLEY MALL NORTHWEST OF LANCASTER WAS LIKELY CAUSED BYA BRIEF TORNADO WEDNESDAY EVENING.DAMAGE INCLUDED A TRAVEL TRAILER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE RIVERVALLEY MALL OFF OF FAIR AVENUE...TREE DAMAGE IN THE VICINITY OFTHE HOCKING RIVER...A PICKUP TRUCK FLIPPED ON ITS TOP IN THE RIVERVALLEY MALL PARKING LOT...NUMEROUS CARS WITH WINDOWS BLOWNOUT IN VICINITY OF THE RIVER VALLEY MALL...TREES AND LIGHT POLESBROKEN OFF...AND ROOF DAMAGE TO AN ADJACENT STORAGE BUILDING.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WISHES TO THANK THE FAIRFIELD COUNTYEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA FOR PHOTOGRAPHS ANDASSISTANCE IN THIS SURVEY.THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE ATWEATHER.GOV/ILN.FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTOTHE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH. Only the 4th tornado in Ohio in December and the first on Christmas Eve/Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yep, like I have sd in another thread, this December sux so far & I am not expecting any Christmas miracles. All well.....onto Act II, January!Act III, February.Windy out today. What a joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Act III, February. Windy out today. What a joke! I'm not sure what to think about January yet. I ran thru wxbell snowfall maps from the 00z runs, (gfs, ggem, euro), and there is amazing consistency between all 3 in showing accumulating snow staying mostly north of i-70 (in ohio), thru 240. So the first 10 days at least, looking like a nightmare scenario of brutal cold and no snow. After that, I suspect we warm up just in time for another sloppy, unorganized rain system. But that could change, the cold could last longer....I don't have a feeling either way and the indices aren't much of help lately in trying to pin this stuff down. The AO chart looks like a whiplash rollercoaster thru mid January....the mjo is dead....the pna is riding closer to neutral....the NAO is heading neutral as well....one minute we are hearing about the warming strat, the next minute that's dead too. Still don't know if we're in a nino or not.... no clear signals anywhere. I do know if it's between cold with nickles and dimes, vs. mild and wet...I'd choose the latter. In about 5 weeks I'll be going into torch-hunting mode. When a torch becomes more exciting to me than a snowstorm. That usually happens around the second week in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Well Buckeye, at least the clipper for early next week hasn't vanished, yet. I would be surprised if we didn't get 1"-3" out of it. Normally we do well with clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Well Buckeye, at least the clipper for early next week hasn't vanished, yet. I would be surprised if we didn't get 1"-3" out of it. Normally we do well with clippers. well....shhhhhhhhh....between you and me, I kinda agree....I would also be surprised if we made it thru all of next week without at least an inch on the ground. But like I said earlier, I'd rather be surprised than disappointed. So I'm preparing myself for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 well....shhhhhhhhh....between you and me, I kinda agree....I would also be surprised if we made it thru all of next week without at least an inch on the ground. But like I said earlier, I'd rather be surprised than disappointed. So I'm preparing myself for the worst. I'd take a dusting at this point!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We've only had 2 winter wx headlines so far this putrid season, (maybe 3), but they were all freezing rain advisories. I wonder if that is an omen or signal that this winter will bring us a major icestorm at some point. hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wake up my central oh friends! Our 1st snowfall since november coming. Albeit a small amount, it will certainly be nice to see the white again. And if we get some winds it will really look wintry out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wake up my central oh friends! Our 1st snowfall since november coming. Albeit a small amount, it will certainly be nice to see the white again. And if we get some winds it will really look wintry out! I love clippers. As a kid growing up in the 90s in north central OH they were our bread and butter. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Whats it looking like? 1-3...i can see where we may get more...depends where that heavy band sets up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS has been almost rock steady with this clipper from day 1 and IMO has the best handle on it. I like the I-70 corridor and points north to get at least 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Whats it looking like? 1-3...i can see where we may get more...depends where that heavy band sets up!! ILN saying "A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ILN saying "A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70." I'd call that very safe wording. I just mentioned in the other thread that the sref plumes have a mean of 3" for CMH. We can't take ANY northern shift, and could use a nice southern shift. Looking like a sharp southern cut-off. Could be a situation where Circleville picks up a trace and Findlay gets 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OHZ056&warncounty=OHC089&firewxzone=OHZ056&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NE%20Granville%20OH&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=40.0917&lon=-82.479#.VK9HlSvF_u5..Would take several inches of snow please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 I doubt anybody gets 6 inches. Looks like a typical 1-4 inch wide system hitting Ohio. We deserve it after this nasty, damp torch.a!! Not sure about that..we look to be shifting south into that sweet spot...70% chance of seeing 4 inches...i would put us in the 3-5 inch range along the I-70 corridor..maybe some lollipop 6 inches..looks like a WWA could be issued..not sure we will meet the WSW criteria!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Not sure about that..we look to be shifting south into that sweet spot...70% chance of seeing 4 inches...i would put us in the 3-5 inch range along the I-70 corridor..maybe some lollipop 6 inches..looks like a WWA could be issued..not sure we will meet the WSW criteria!! the track has definitely improved over the last several runs. Something to watch is how fast and to what degree the precip shield weakens as it heads east. some of the models were weakening it as it crossed into OH. The 18z nam looks to have stopped that, or delayed it further east. I suspect ILN will go with watches for franklin on north to meet with CLE's southern tier watch counties. Probably very border line that we meet winterstorm criteria....maybe due to the extreme temps and the fact that this is the first real threat of the season will get them to pull the trigger. I think 3-4" is looking solid for the I-70 folks. I'm not ready to buy into crazy high ratios....which is what we would need to get us to 6 or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 the track has definitely improved over the last several runs. Something to watch is how fast and to what degree the precip shield weakens as it heads east. some of the models were weakening it as it crossed into OH. The 18z nam looks to have stopped that, or delayed it further east. I suspect ILN will go with watches for franklin on north to meet with CLE's southern tier watch counties. Probably very border line that we meet winterstorm criteria....maybe due to the extreme temps and the fact that this is the first real threat of the season will get them to pull the trigger. I think 3-4" is looking solid for the I-70 folks. I'm not ready to buy into crazy high ratios....which is what we would need to get us to 6 or more WSW just hoisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 WSW just hoisted yup and one tier further south than Franklin. Going with 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 plumes are up to 4.3" for the CMH median. 5 members above 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 plumes are up to 4.3" for the CMH median. 5 members above 6" Loving this..hope we get in on the high end of things!! 6 would be nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Sleeting here in Newark right now!! Not sure why no one is on this thread talking about our possible 4-6 inch clipper!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Sleeting here in Newark right now!! Not sure why no one is on this thread talking about our possible 4-6 inch clipper!! Because it's been so gloomy it's like I'll believe it when I see it. I'm going with 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 would be surprised if ILN doesn't go from watch to an advisory, vs. warning. Looks like advisory is the popular choice. Makes sense to me, this is a significant snow event, but still doesn't look to me like widespread warning criteria would be met. Could someone pick up 6" of fluff in their back yard? yea, but we probably will see closer to 3-4" in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 would be surprised if ILN doesn't go from watch to an advisory, vs. warning. Looks like advisory is the popular choice. Makes sense to me, this is a significant snow event, but still doesn't look to me like widespread warning criteria would be met. Could someone pick up 6" of fluff in their back yard? yea, but we probably will see closer to 3-4" in general. I agree. I think when ILN pulls the trigger this afternoon it will be for an advisory for Licking and Franklin counties. Still, I think we're good for 3"-5" overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 would be surprised if ILN doesn't go from watch to an advisory, vs. warning. Looks like advisory is the popular choice. Makes sense to me, this is a significant snow event, but still doesn't look to me like widespread warning criteria would be met. Could someone pick up 6" of fluff in their back yard? yea, but we probably will see closer to 3-4" in general. I think the potential is still high on this, considering the thermal profiles. Modest lift and saturation in a significantly deep DGZ; I like the 4-6" call, with western areas of central OH doing better. Ratios should be on the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Think they just updated the WSW..so i believe it may go to a warning soon!! I believe if they were going with a WWA..they would have at noon i would think..just my opinion..so i agree with Dustin..it stays at 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Think they just updated the WSW..so i believe it may go to a warning soon!! I believe if they were going with a WWA..they would have at noon i would think..just my opinion..so i agree with Dustin..it stays at 4-6 ILN went w/ WWA for 3-5. Smart move. My final call is 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 so ILN is going 3-5" for CMH, didn't feel 6" min would be achieved....sounds good. Ok, not meaning to leapfrog the clipper, (we've pretty much dissected that all we can), I was always interested in the squall potential on Wednesday. The flow off lake Michigan is perfect for those long, (rare), fetches that can set up and give some quick loving to the area, not to mention caa. ILN mentioned this in the AFD: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE LOW LEVEL CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREATHROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLEDIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONICFLOW/CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO THEPOSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH THE12Z NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING A DECENT 1.5 PV ANOMALY DROPPING DOWNTHROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOMEENHANCEMENT TO THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER ACROSS ABOUT THENORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLYHEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL LIKELY RESULT INSOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS INTHE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACKWEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTHOURS. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OFOUR AREA...SUB ZERO TEMPS ARE A GOOD BET WITH WIND CHILL READINGSALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE 15 TO 30 BELOW RANGE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 so ILN is going 3-5" for CMH, didn't feel 6" min would be achieved....sounds good. Ok, not meaning to leapfrog the clipper, (we've pretty much dissected that all we can), I was always interested in the squall potential on Wednesday. The flow off lake Michigan is perfect for those long, (rare), fetches that can set up and give some quick loving to the area, not to mention caa. ILN mentioned this in the AFD: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LOW LEVEL CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING A DECENT 1.5 PV ANOMALY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA...SUB ZERO TEMPS ARE A GOOD BET WITH WIND CHILL READINGS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE 15 TO 30 BELOW RANGE POSSIBLE. That would be sweet to add on to whatever we get tonight. Whatever falls will stick on Wed that is for sure and w/ pretty good "fluff meter" in effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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