oldlogin Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 lol at the met on the radio this morning that said good chance of a snow day Monday. the clipper is gonna be a bust. Next up: Jan 31 - Feb 1 fantasy southern system and possible phase. If that fails my weenie-hope tank will be officially empty, I'll be checking out and cleaning out my locker. P.S. the coffee maker is mine, I'm bringing it with me. Well Buckeye, as is said " back in the day". We will always have this one to remember..37th anniversary coming up--- http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/research/Blizzard1978/blizzard78.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well Buckeye, as is said " back in the day". We will always have this one to remember..37th anniversary coming up--- http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/research/Blizzard1978/blizzard78.php sigh Kinda like finding an old lover on FB (the best you ever had), ....married, with kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 lol at the met on the radio this morning that said good chance of a snow day Monday. the clipper is gonna be a bust. Looks like rain and 34F to me with a minute of snow at the beginning and end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 FWIW, the 18Z GFS baby stepped in the right direction for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not holding out hope..so if we get anything..Great!! If not..won't be dissapointed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I would definitely be perked up if I lived in southeast OH, I think a good chance of some light accums down there for fri/sat system. The models are showing more of a defined inverted trough west of the low. That being said I think much more of a nw trend is not going to happen. The trough pretty much remains positively tilted and there's just way too much junk in the northern stream to allow this thing to slow and pop a stronger ridge out ahead. As far as Sunday/Monday....hmmmm looking like a solid clipper?? Anyone want to put bets on how that falls apart? a. trends north b. trends south and around us c. dampens out I'm going with option a. Looks like you will be right with option a. My option c would be right if the Euro scores a coup. So it's either a rain/snow mix with little accumulation with the GFS or little qpf with the Euro. Choose your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I would definitely be perked up if I lived in southeast OH, I think a good chance of some light accums down there for fri/sat system. The models are showing more of a defined inverted trough west of the low. That being said I think much more of a nw trend is not going to happen. The trough pretty much remains positively tilted and there's just way too much junk in the northern stream to allow this thing to slow and pop a stronger ridge out ahead. As far as Sunday/Monday....hmmmm looking like a solid clipper?? Anyone want to put bets on how that falls apart? a. trends north b. trends south and around us c. dampens out I'm going with option a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL. Maybe this time tomorrow it will be "b". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'll take option D. Direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'll take option D. Direct hit. I still think we need more south to keep mixing from happening. Even euro, as far south as it is, is showing some garbage precip with best accums just north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Meh, buckeye, you'd hit the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks decent for 2" give or take here tonight. Lots of virga for the next few hours but radar looks good for a nice fringe job. Temps didn't get quite as warm as expected today which will hopefully allow precip to change to snow within an hour or two of starting. You guys look better for the clipper but CMH needs a little more of a south shift to get more than 1-2" of slop IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks decent for 2" give or take here tonight. Lots of virga for the next few hours but radar looks good for a nice fringe job. Temps didn't get quite as warm as expected today which will hopefully allow precip to change to snow within an hour or two of starting. You guys look better for the clipper but CMH needs a little more of a south shift to get more than 1-2" of slop IMO. imagine this gradient verifying. 5" of snow in the northern burbs, 0 in the southern burbs. NAM not liking the southern fringe you were talking about.....but I agree with you, radar looks good for a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just for kicks, ran the 18z NAM through BUFKIT for KCMH. It shows a 4-6 hour window of moderate to strong lift in the DGZ, which implies heavy snow. I also attached the temp profile as the precip starts...it only gets colder thereafter with surface temps right at freezing during the snow. However, looking at the maps, 35F air lurks just south of CMH, so it could be a razor sharp gradient. The Euro was also over .5" of QPF at CMH with air temps of 33-35 during the snow. Get any sort of decent rates and it'll sit at freezing. In this image, the color fill is RH. The yellow and pink outlined area is the DGZ. The red outlines are omega: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Snow has started in Athens. Surface temp still 38 so it may take a while to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Down to 34F and still falling fast. I think I sense an overperformer here. Car tops starting to get covered and radar looks pretty good for the next several hours. A 3" report just popped up from KY too. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Good luck down that way OHweather! Radar looks good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=nam&time=current&field=prec..This looks nice..GFS is at 4 1/2 inches!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=nam&time=current&field=prec..This looks nice..GFS is at 4 1/2 inches!! this one just isn't grabbing me for some reason... I think I've set my expectations so low that anything better than a rain/seet mix or non-accumulating snow and 35 degrees will be a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 A little over 1" on campus, although my apartment on a hill probably has more as it was sticking there at 7PM when I left but didn't stick on campus until about 8:30. Anyways, here's a snowmap I made for a website I help with and the "reasoning" I attached with it for everyone to pick apart. 0z NAM and GFS don't compel me to make huge changes other than possibly trimming the northern edge a bit more. Because I'm not all about self-promotion I cropped the banner out Reasoning: Pretty strong south trend continued today. Clippers are known to trend south in the days leading up to the storm so I didn't get cute and try to cover my ass too much on the north edge. The Euro still got 2" as far north as Cleveland, but other models are south and given the Euro takes the 500mb vort max south of the Ohio River, its generous northern edge of the snow seemed suspect to me. Because other models struggle to give more than an inch or two to far northern Ohio, with maybe even less than an inch in Ashtabula, felt OK with only going a T-2" for far northern Ohio. If I was expecting a shift back north I'd be more generous there but again...clippers trend south a lot more often than they trend north, and with such a sharp ridge on the west coast and decent trough over eastern Canada, combined with how far west the shortwave dives into the Plains, the farther SW solution makes sense to me. Generally blended the GFS/NAM/SREF for the northern extent with less weight given to the 12z Euro. The southern gradient was tough to nail down due to marginal low level temperatures and also the mid-level low track. The NAM and GFS both track the mid-level low pretty close to I-70. Clippers are known to struggle to produce snow south of their mid-level low track. In addition, both the NAM and GFS show a very sharp temperature gradient from below freezing along I-70 to mid to upper 30's just a little south. The GFS shows colder 925mb temps, with the 925mb 0C line staying about 30 miles south of I-70, while the NAM briefly gets above freezing air at 925mb to very close to Columbus...the sharp temperature gradient and mid-level low track are both right on top of eachother, so I feel there will be a very sharp gradient. The Euro, although more generous on the northern end, is in general a bit less amplified with the whole thing but still suggests marginal surface temps right up to CMH. There seems to be decent agreement on I-70 being close to the very sharp cut-off so I drew the sharp cut-off there, with a slight NW-SE tilt. The mid-level low track will be more W-E as the trough takes on a more neutral tilt, and the gradient will probably be near the mid-level low track on the southern edge which is why the southern gradient is more W-E oriented than the northern edge. The gradient will probably be even sharper than I have drawn, and a very small shift could bring heavier amounts to Columbus. As for max amounts...this is a very potent mid-level wave and fairly strong surface reflection for a clipper. There could be about a 6 hour window or so in central Ohio where strong 500mb PVA and convergence on the nose of a strong low to mid level jet combine, which could cause a period of heavy snow in a narrow band, with a few hours of lighter snow surrounding that. This could produce a narrow corridor of 6"+. It's too early to pin that down so I have the highest range at 3-6" with a "plus" on the end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 A little over 1" on campus, although my apartment on a hill probably has more as it was sticking there at 7PM when I left but didn't stick on campus until about 8:30. Anyways, here's a snowmap I made for a website I help with and the "reasoning" I attached with it for everyone to pick apart. 0z NAM and GFS don't compel me to make huge changes other than possibly trimming the northern edge a bit more. Because I'm not all about self-promotion I cropped the banner out snow 1-25 no neo.png Reasoning: Pretty strong south trend continued today. Clippers are known to trend south in the days leading up to the storm so I didn't get cute and try to cover my ass too much on the north edge. The Euro still got 2" as far north as Cleveland, but other models are south and given the Euro takes the 500mb vort max south of the Ohio River, its generous northern edge of the snow seemed suspect to me. Because other models struggle to give more than an inch or two to far northern Ohio, with maybe even less than an inch in Ashtabula, felt OK with only going a T-2" for far northern Ohio. If I was expecting a shift back north I'd be more generous there but again...clippers trend south a lot more often than they trend north, and with such a sharp ridge on the west coast and decent trough over eastern Canada, combined with how far west the shortwave dives into the Plains, the farther SW solution makes sense to me. Generally blended the GFS/NAM/SREF for the northern extent with less weight given to the 12z Euro. The southern gradient was tough to nail down due to marginal low level temperatures and also the mid-level low track. The NAM and GFS both track the mid-level low pretty close to I-70. Clippers are known to struggle to produce snow south of their mid-level low track. In addition, both the NAM and GFS show a very sharp temperature gradient from below freezing along I-70 to mid to upper 30's just a little south. The GFS shows colder 925mb temps, with the 925mb 0C line staying about 30 miles south of I-70, while the NAM briefly gets above freezing air at 925mb to very close to Columbus...the sharp temperature gradient and mid-level low track are both right on top of eachother, so I feel there will be a very sharp gradient. The Euro, although more generous on the northern end, is in general a bit less amplified with the whole thing but still suggests marginal surface temps right up to CMH. There seems to be decent agreement on I-70 being close to the very sharp cut-off so I drew the sharp cut-off there, with a slight NW-SE tilt. The mid-level low track will be more W-E as the trough takes on a more neutral tilt, and the gradient will probably be near the mid-level low track on the southern edge which is why the southern gradient is more W-E oriented than the northern edge. The gradient will probably be even sharper than I have drawn, and a very small shift could bring heavier amounts to Columbus. As for max amounts...this is a very potent mid-level wave and fairly strong surface reflection for a clipper. There could be about a 6 hour window or so in central Ohio where strong 500mb PVA and convergence on the nose of a strong low to mid level jet combine, which could cause a period of heavy snow in a narrow band, with a few hours of lighter snow surrounding that. This could produce a narrow corridor of 6"+. It's too early to pin that down so I have the highest range at 3-6" with a "plus" on the end of it. map looks good....I'd consider myself very luck if that verifies being about 12 miles north of 70. Good to hear Athens is getting hit. My daughter text'd me and asked how much snow they're suppose to get 'down here' I told her maybe a couple of inches on campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Much like Buckeye, I would be surprised if this clipper produced that much. The energy just looks to weak and that usually leaves it fairly dry. actually it's one of the stronger clipper systems we've had this season....if not the strongest pressure-wise. Much moreso than the ratio-debacle clipper that still gave us 3.5". My lack of enthusiasm stems from marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Much like Buckeye, I would be surprised if this clipper produced that much. The energy just looks to weak and that usually leaves it fairly dry. For a clipper I think the energy is pretty strong, and for a clipper the models are showing an unusual amount of QPF. There appears to be about a 6 hour window where the nose of a strong low to mid level jet and decent PVA at 500mb will both occur in a narrow corridor in central OH...that could be 6 hours of heavy snow in a narrow band with light snow surrounding that window, so I really don't see how 3-6" is too high for this situation. My main concern is where mixing gets to and that could ultimately burn Columbus. .If this trends farther south I'd look like a donkey then so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 For a clipper I think the energy is pretty strong, and for a clipper the models are showing an unusual amount of QPF. There appears to be about a 6 hour window where the nose of a strong low to mid level jet and decent PVA at 500mb will both occur in a narrow corridor in central OH...that could be 6 hours of heavy snow in a narrow band with light snow surrounding that window, so I really don't see how 3-6" is too high for this situation. My main concern is where mixing gets to and that could ultimately burn Columbus. .If this trends farther south I'd look like a donkey then so we'll see. speaking of trends...the ggem says the south trend is not done. Central IL to extreme northeastern NC. Right thru central KY. I suspect we'll see this stop with tomorrow runs, and possibly a last minute bump north to ensure CMH remains on the everything-but-the-kitchen-sink line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CHeck this BEAST OUT.WOAH...Detroit Special..lol ...but the cold to the north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Snow winding down here. My car on campus had about 1.5" on it with a little less on the ground. A few tenths may have melted due to me not parking it until over an hour after the snow started. Up on a hill, cars at my apartment have a little over 2" on them...again, a bit less on the ground. Trees are completely covered. I'm going to try to wake up early enough to take some pictures before the snow starts melting off the trees. Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 speaking of trends...the ggem says the south trend is not done. Central IL to extreme northeastern NC. Right thru central KY. I suspect we'll see this stop with tomorrow runs, and possibly a last minute bump north to ensure CMH remains on the everything-but-the-kitchen-sink line.The NAM, GFS and Euro didn't really trend much farther south, so I think the Canadian probably is too far south. Full sampling for the 12z runs so we'll see if there's movement one way or another. Other than the Canadian, great agreement on an extremely close call for CMH. I'd rather but a touch north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 About the best I was able to do with my iPhone camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 no one can ever accuse us Ohioans of hyping snow.....is that crickets I hear chirping in here? I see everyone has the same attitude about tomorrow that I have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 no one can ever accuse us Ohioans of hyping snow.....is that crickets I hear chirping in here? I see everyone has the same attitude about tomorrow that I have... 2 much disappointment. I hope ILN goes w/ no advisories. Then mayb our luck will change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.