buckeye Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 2.3" at CMH. Over performing here. Heavy snow right now almost an inch down. yea that makes sense, the gradient was pretty sharp. Places I-70 and south didn't changeover til well after dark. Schools actually cancelled from 3" of snow...wtf?? lol. Goodluck down there...you've had a good few days. So what do you think about this weekend? GGEM going crazy, 06zGFS ens also have some juiced solutions, Euro not biting, just keeping everything suppressing south and east. edit: actually euro op is better than I thought. has precip streaming northeast to about I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 About 4" here with a 1/2" of frozen slop underneath. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yea that makes sense, the gradient was pretty sharp. Places I-70 and south didn't changeover til well after dark. Schools actually cancelled from 3" of snow...wtf?? lol. Goodluck down there...you've had a good few days. So what do you think about this weekend? GGEM going crazy, 06zGFS ens also have some juiced solutions, Euro not biting, just keeping everything suppressing south and east. edit: actually euro op is better than I thought. has precip streaming northeast to about I-70. That storm depends on the SW US cut off ejecting out at the perfect time ahead of the arctic air this weekend, so I think it'll tough to pin down more than 3-4 days out. But, the models last night all trended towards bringing it out a little quicker which is good. I'm just worried that if it all comes out it'll cut just a little too far north. So we'll see. Just have to watch how models trend WRT that SW US cutoff I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That storm depends on the SW US cut off ejecting out at the perfect time ahead of the arctic air this weekend, so I think it'll tough to pin down more than 3-4 days out. But, the models last night all trended towards bringing it out a little quicker which is good. I'm just worried that if it all comes out it'll cut just a little too far north. So we'll see. Just have to watch how models trend WRT that SW US cutoff I guess. JB mentioned this in his vid this morning. He thinks the models will trend to a 'bigger' piece coming out in front but not necessarily the whole package. Also depends on what happens with the northern branch and how fast it progresses. At least something to track. Looking at past climo this winter, it's hard to bet on a strong phased solution....but that's got to change eventually...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 JB mentioned this in his vid this morning. He thinks the models will trend to a 'bigger' piece coming out in front but not necessarily the whole package. Also depends on what happens with the northern branch and how fast it progresses. At least something to track. Looking at past climo this winter, it's hard to bet on a strong phased solution....but that's got to change eventually...I think. Look at the East Coast the last few days. Eventually we'll get a phase this far west, just hope it doesn't take the storm too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Louisville's latest discussion is pretty good for Sunday's extended outlook:http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LMK&issuedby=LMK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Louisville's latest discussion is pretty good for Sunday's extended outlook: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LMK&issuedby=LMK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Nice disco. Wish ILN was like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Definitely interested in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Of course if we can get a phase we'll be riding the rn/sn line but to get big snows we have to deal with it 9/10. Definitely due for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well 0z Euro looks sweet for us here in Ohio for the Sunday deal, but I hav a gut feeling the NW trend ain't quite done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well 0z Euro looks sweet for us here in Ohio for the Sunday deal, but I hav a gut feeling the NW trend ain't quite done yet. Yea, I hate seeing something that good for us so soon. You know that isn't what's gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yea, I hate seeing something that good for us so soon. You know that isn't what's gonna happen. Definitely disturbing to see the gfs come north, but I recall last year it was too far n with one or two southern storms in this timeframe. For us folks in the southern flanks, we need the northern stream to kick some ass and get out in front without getting too far out and suppressing everything. We need that arctic high to make some inroads. It's just nice to finally have something on the radar other than a damn clipper lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Definitely disturbing to see the gfs come north, but I recall last year it was too far n with one or two southern storms in this timeframe. For us folks in the southern flanks, we need the northern stream to kick some ass and get out in front without getting too far out and suppressing everything. We need that arctic high to make some inroads. It's just nice to finally have something on the radar other than a damn clipper lol. I'll admit half the fun is tracking these things, even if it doesn't work out ... unless the euro forecasts 2' - 3' and it busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I had to laugh at the GFS this morning. Every single event was a mix at best as temps warmed for it, only to cool off after. I have little doubt that this is probably the most likely scenario for the next few upcoming events. This is just a good year to expect the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 240 hr euro totals and of course this will be the one time the euro finds the nut....after all those pink stripes coming up through central ohio all winter long... If you stare at it long enough....close your eyes for 5 seconds....then open them and look at a white wall, you can actually see a tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 240 hr euro totals and of course this will be the one time the euro finds the nut....after all those pink stripes coming up through central ohio all winter long... If you stare at it long enough....close your eyes for 5 seconds....then open them and look at a white wall, you can actually see a tongue. TBH, I'd rather see that this far out than a direct hit. Now it's just a matter of which way it will wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 TBH, I'd rather see that this far out than a direct hit. Now it's just a matter of which way it will wobble. I know, just joking around. 5 years ago that op run would have been the kiss of death because the euro rarely came back southeast. It's a different world now....anyone's guess outside 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I know, just joking around. 5 years ago that op run would have been the kiss of death because the euro rarely came back southeast. It's a different world now....anyone's guess outside 72 hours Agreed. This is more of a crapshoot than ever before, especially with the new GFS thrown in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 0z gfs was crap for us in central ohio. The phase was good but it'd be a cold rain storm for us. Few days to bring it south again. Compared to the 12z it's a + for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Every model was crap for us. This looks like December 2002 all over again. We'll enjoy our mix to rain while points north get a foot+. It's that kind of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Every model was crap for us. This looks like December 2002 all over again. We'll enjoy our mix to rain while points north get a foot+. It's that kind of winter. Be more positive Jb lol. You've seemed depressed here lately, man lol. At least we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I didn't think the 00Z euro was all that bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You Ohio guys must feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. It seems that every possible good hit ends up involving thermo issues. Ohio must be the Indian word meaning WTOD. Seriously, I'm not trolling, as I only live about 30 miles from the Ohio line, so I feel your pain. Hint: Ride the Euro, toss the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 this thing is a nail biter, although I have to admit I bit my finger tip off when I saw the ggem. However, before us I-70 thermal riders jump off the bridge, you have to dive deeper into the models. Then things don't look so bad. In fact I'm convinced we have just as much chance of watching the best go south of us as we do getting warm tongued. Sure anything can happen but that ggem run is probably horsesh*t. In fact looking at the Canadian ens the low goes from around new Orleans off VA, with an inverted trough into WV..... just a tad southeast of the OP As far as the euro, I actually liked the run, it made me want to sew my fingertip back on. It has a different look too, it's kind of like a bowling ball west to east event. That would be a nice juicy, spread the wealth storm. Also, the euro ens is southeast of the OP...surprise surprise. I like the gfs too, not as crazy as the 00z obviously, but the 06z was better for CMH already coming in a bit southeast/colder/weaker then the 00z... Ensembles are mostly southeast and weaker, with only a few amped solutions. As far as the special team model suite....the nogaps misses us completely with a weak low over the lakes and virtually no southern low. Same thing with the UK. So bottom line, this thing is totally open. Looks like I'm going to have to take on the role of head cheerleader for this one. We've totally lost Jb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 this thing is a nail biter, although I have to admit I bit my finger tip off when I saw the ggem. However, before us I-70 thermal riders jump off the bridge, you have to dive deeper into the models. Then things don't look so bad. In fact I'm convinced we have just as much chance of watching the best go south of us as we do getting warm tongued. Sure anything can happen but that ggem run is probably horsesh*t. In fact looking at the Canadian ens the low goes from around new Orleans off VA, with an inverted trough into WV..... just a tad southeast of the OP As far as the euro, I actually liked the run, it made me want to sew my fingertip back on. It has a different look too, it's kind of like a bowling ball west to east event. That would be a nice juicy, spread the wealth storm. Also, the euro ens is southeast of the OP...surprise surprise. I like the gfs too, not as crazy as the 00z obviously, but the 06z was better for CMH already coming in a bit southeast/colder then the 00z... Ensembles are mostly southeast and weaker, with only a few amped solutions. As far as the special team model suite....the nogaps misses us completely with a weak low over the lakes and virtually no southern low. Same thing with the UK. So bottom line, this thing is totally open. Looks like I'm going to have to take on the role of head cheerleader for this one. We've totally lost Jb. I agree w/ you. The amounts & temps I see from 0z Euro look pretty good. Keep the faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On board here too. I'm curious what the NAM will do once this thing is in its time frame. Juicy or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Went outside to start the Jeep and didn't realize it is -2 out there now. On clear nights with a snowpack Newark always bottoms out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On board here too. I'm curious what the NAM will do once this thing is in its time frame. Juicy or no?It will b something strange 4 a few runs until it gets within its wheelhouse, which at this point may be 12 hours?! I think it had some crazy amounts showing for the blizzard all the way up to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I didn't think the 00Z euro was all that bad for us. With the track and strength it had, there's no way we see that much snow. Zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Be more positive Jb lol. You've seemed depressed here lately, man lol. At least we have something to track. I have not been into this winter since the 2nd week of December, and it's going about how I expected since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12Z GFS shears out the Sunday system now, of course! So much for P-Type issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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