pondo1000 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Some light snow has made it to Athens...enough to dust car tops.Currently have very sn- here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Welcome back. Ganahl says 8 degrees for Tuesday morning low. Wow. That has to be a record for earliest single digit temp if it verifies? About the potential single-digit lows... The last time a November featured that in *any* part of the month was 1976, when the low hit single-digits twice on the 29th-30th (6 and 5 respectively). Single digits or lower have only occurred in a total of 9 Novembers since 1878. They are: 1976-77: 29th: 6 30th: 5 1958-59 29th: 6 30th: -4 1956-57 24th: 9 1955-56 28th: 9 1950-51 24th: 8 25th: 5 26th: 7 1930-31 26th: 9 27th: 3 28th: 7 1929-30 29th: 4 30th: 1 1887-88 29th: 3 1880-81 19th: -3 21st: 5 22nd: -5 23rd: -1 27th: 9 So they don't happen often, but they can happen in very cold and very warm winters alike. However, many of these are not great matches for this year, though 1976-77 has come up a lot. And indeed if we hit single-digits on Tuesday, that would, in fact, be the earliest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I also hope the relatively early light snow today can keep temps down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Couple things to note for this evening from the latest HRRR:1) The HRRR is showing precip as early as 4-6pm. This will likely be light and NOT the accumulating snow we expect. In fact, some of that may even be a rain/snow mix especially south of the Ohio River. It has a lull around 10-11pm before more later.2) It then shows a heavier round of precip poised to move in after 05z tonight. THIS will be the round to watch for more significant accumulation although a light amount (coating to 1") is plausible from the first round if we see some heavier precip rates or surface temps are cool enough.3) The HRRR does not show surface temps dropping below 32 in the Cincy & Columbus metro's until about 5-6z (12am-1am) which means its forecast for 2-3" already on the ground by then is likely over done.I'm off to work, but will monitor the next few HRRR runs, latest observations, and maybe even the 12z Euro before posting my final outlook this afternoon. I'm still kinda feeling the 2-4" forecast with wording for isolated higher amounts. up through the 71 zone. The reason I do that is because I'm not confident enough in widespread amounts greater than 4" except in a narrow corridor which has yet to be completely determined IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 well euro still loving the I-71 corridor. will be a nice case to watch and see how it ends up doing. Incredible consistency for the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 well euro still loving the I-71 corridor.ILN going w/ 4-6 now for my area. Anyone else? will be a nice case to watch and see how it ends up doing. Incredible consistency for the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 well euro still loving the I-71 corridor. will be a nice case to watch and see how it ends up doing. Incredible consistency for the last several runs. ILN going w/ 4-6 now in my area. Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 ILN going w/ 4-6 now in my area. Anyone else? Latest from the NWS calls for 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Hopefully the fact that it's been flurrying all afternoon bodes well that we can stay away from too many...if any....rain drops to start. I tried to make sense of ILN's detailed discussion and my head is still spinning. I think they are saying 3-5 with a potential for another inch tomorrow? They mention the axis of heaviest snow will be riding the transition line. That bodes well for our area. We might be close enough to smell the rain without tasting it. We here in CMH are pros at surfing that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Hopefully the fact that it's been flurrying all afternoon bodes well that we can stay away from too many...if any....rain drops to start. I tried to make sense of ILN's detailed discussion and my head is still spinning. I think they are saying 3-5 with a potential for another inch tomorrow? They mention the axis of heaviest snow will be riding the transition line. That bodes well for our area. We might be close enough to smell the rain without tasting it. We here in CMH are pros at surfing that line Riding the edge has worked out pretty well since about March 2008. Last February's snowstorm is a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Hopefully the fact that it's been flurrying all afternoon bodes well that we can stay away from too many...if any....rain drops to start. I tried to make sense of ILN's detailed discussion and my head is still spinning. I think they are saying 3-5 with a potential for another inch tomorrow? They mention the axis of heaviest snow will be riding the transition line. That bodes well for our area. We might be close enough to smell the rain without tasting it. We here in CMH are pros at surfing that line I think Franklin and Licking counties will do just fine. We always seem to be on the transition line, maybe it will pay off this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 No liking where's it's seting uo so far. First part, I understand but current radar kinda goes with what hrrr shows. Guess we'll have to watch and see where the heavy bands set up. Still gonna be fun to track this early regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 No liking where's it's seting uo so far. First part, I understand but current radar kinda goes with what hrrr shows. Guess we'll have to watch and see where the heavy bands set up. Still gonna be fun to track this early regardless. C'mon Dilly we're tracking a snowstorm on Nov. 16th. There's nothing that will disappoint me. Not seeing anything I don't like yet. That disconnected area to the west was depicted well on the modeling. I think the steady stuff probably doesn't fill in and get here til after 10. Patience grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Fingers crossed. can't recall the last time I was bullseyed in the red on one of those maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 C'mon Dilly we're tracking a snowstorm on Nov. 16th. There's nothing that will disappoint me. Besides not seeing anything I don't like yet. That disconnected area to the west was depicted well on the modeling. I think the steady stuff probably doesn't fill in and get here til after 10. Patience grasshopper I agree. To be honest, I'd be happy with any snow - it's just an incredible bonus that it could potentially be 5"-6"!! The overall pattern itself is what I'm digging, bodes well for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 I do not believe i have ever seen my neck of the woods in the bullseye for 4+ inches!! Bring it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 My full fcst: http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-storm-warning-messy-monday-commute And snow map! Going a tad bit lower just due my worry about surface temps being stubborn to cool fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 My full fcst: http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-storm-warning-messy-monday-commute And snow map! Going a tad bit lower just due my worry about surface temps being stubborn to cool fast enough. Looks good to me. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Light drizzle here now. CLE has 4-6 w/ 8 lollipops one county north. PIT has me at 1-3 now. So they lowered. Glad to see moisture even if it's drizzle. At least the atmosphere is moist for when the snow arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I do not believe i have ever seen my neck of the woods in the bullseye for 4+ inches!! Bring it!! Lol yea we have seen 4" many times Steve-o lol good luck to ya for this first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Talking about the NOAA map..putting us in the 70% chance of seeing 4+ Lol yea we have seen 4" many times Steve-o lol good luck to ya for this first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Looks like radar is starting to fill in...i drive a school bus!! .Could be our first snow day..sure would be the earliest i can remember if it happens!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Looks like radar is starting to fill in...i drive a school bus!! .Could be our first snow day..sure would be the earliest i can remember if it happens!! Hopefully a sign of a good winter. Still drizzle here. Hopefully that radar to the south fills in or we could be in for bust #1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 drizzle turned to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 drizzle turned to sleetnot yet here. But im east so maybe within the next 20 or so.EDIT: Snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Well, this is the earliest I can remember returning to board from our hiatus! Everything is looking remarkably on track. Got to be honest, I wasn't buying this storm at all until today. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Snowing here in Newark..and radar filling in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Good luck Central OH folks. Not often we have a synoptic event to track in mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 light snow here in Westerville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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