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jaxjagman

Oct.-Nov Pattern Discussion

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KTRI had measurable snow in each month IIRC, per Carvers last year, starting in November, including Dec, Jan, Feb, March, and possibly even April, though I believe last year, the snow in November came later in the month.  Will be interesting to see if we can start something similar for KTRI this year.

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Good luck with the flakeage guys!  I'll take my first freeze of the year and a couple of cold and windy days as well.  Possibly a stray flake will break containment down my way lol.

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The 0z runs of the GFS and NAM had the cutoff further west than the CMC and Euro but it seems with the 12z runs the NAM/GFS have shifted east with the cutoff closer to the Euro. It probably doesn't mean really much as the effects will be generally the same. Maybe it will cutdown on precip a little bit.

The 6z NAM was bonkers and is an outlier in my opinion. It produced a whopping 1.38" of QPF at KTRI with all of it being rain. Temps on the 6z NAM were a good 8-10 degrees warmer than the 0z NAM. Meanwhile Knoxville picked up 3 inches of snow and Nashville picked up around an inch and a half.

Here are some meteograms:

KTRI:

post-6441-14146091639.jpg

KTYS:

post-6441-141460918273.jpg

KBNA:

post-6441-141460955825.jpg

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While I'd love another 1993 Halloween type surprise, I'll settle for flakes in the air. Starting November with snow flying will be excellent. First frost was way earlier than I figured this year and it looks like the first snow will be earlier than I was thinking too. 

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NWS Morristown just put out an accumulation forecast:

 

image6.jpg

 

 

That's a bit heavier along the AT than I thought. Looks like I'll be heading up the mountain before sunrise with a headlamp in case I get bogged down at higher elevations. I'm going to have to call around to see if I can get some micro spikes in time. I don't think my YakTrax pros will handle this.

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NWS Morristown just put out an accumulation forecast:

 

image6.jpg

 

 

That's a bit heavier along the AT than I thought. Looks like I'll be heading up the mountain before sunrise with a headlamp in case I get bogged down at higher elevations. I'm going to have to call around to see if I can get some micro spikes in time. I don't think my YakTrax pros will handle this.

Sorta hard to believe some of those number, dont get me wrong, id love to see em, but thats a little excessive i think.

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Sorta hard to believe some of those number, dont get me wrong, id love to see em, but thats a little excessive i think.

 

Seems reasonable to me knowing my experience with the Smokys above 6000'. The moisture will be there for at least a day, and 1-2" of liquid equivalent precip above at least 5000' to me is not unreasonable. Either way I plan on finding out on Saturday.

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I'm wanting to head up that way too valkhorn, I don't know about hiking in it though lol

It's not bad as long as you know how to handle it. Layers, crampons, gaiters, extra clothes, and above all else no blue jeans or cotton clothes.

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I'm planning on heading up to Mt Leconte or Mt Sterling Saturday morning. 441 through the Smokys will likely be closed so I'll probably hike up Rainbow Falls

 

That sounds like fun.  I've done a snowy LeConte hike in March before and I had to work twice as hard as usual.  The frozen/thawed/refrozen stuff up near the top of bullhead was nearly impossible to walk on without specialized boots.  Take some pics and post em for us Saturday and be safe!

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That sounds like fun.  I've done a snowy LeConte hike in March before and I had to work twice as hard as usual.  The frozen/thawed/refrozen stuff up near the top of bullhead was nearly impossible to walk on without specialized boots.  Take some pics and post em for us Saturday and be safe!

 

Will do. I just re-ordered microspikes since my YakTrax were borken thanks to a snowy walk on the AT some time ago. Amazon Prime is a wonderful thing.

 

I've done a few slips and slides on the Bullhead thanks to snow before. I plan on starting early so I can take my time up.

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According to the meteograms, the last two runs of the GFS want to put a half inch or more of snow on the ground in Knoxville.  While I doubt anything can stick here, the consistency of the models has me excited about seeing flakes in the air at least.  I wonder how far I'll have to drive to see decent ground coverage.  The Skyway is still looking like a good plan for the weekend.

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From MRX this morning. Looks like it's going to be interesting in SWVA and the mountains, as expected!

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM PULLING WINTER-LIKE CHILL INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR THIS WEEKEND. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...FIRST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE
2500 FEET...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DECREASING MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY EVENING.

ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ELEVATION. AT THIS
TIME...BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITH
UP TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS BELOW 2500 FEET COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 4 INCHES. ROADS IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. PERSONS PLANNING ON
TRAVELING ON HIGHWAY 411 OVER THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS OR ROADWAYS
ACROSS HIGH KNOB...VIRGINIA NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW AND ICY ROADS. DOWNED TREES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
SNOW ACCUMULATING ON FOLIAGE STILL LEFT ON MANY TREES.

 

tnweathernut, be careful on your way to SC! Go Vols...worried about this one. All of them, actually!  :axe:

 

Valkhorn, looking forward to some pics from your trip if you get the chance to post them. Have a safe hike to LeConte. And you're right in your earlier post; cotton kills!

 

If anyone doesn't know the site, I highly recommend High on LeConte:  http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts

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Some places are going to clear a foot, maybe some places 18". I'm pretty shocked at how well the models sniffed this out early on. If I didn't have plans I would snag a cabin for the weekend.

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According to the meteograms, the last two runs of the GFS want to put a half inch or more of snow on the ground in Knoxville.  While I doubt anything can stick here, the consistency of the models has me excited about seeing flakes in the air at least.  I wonder how far I'll have to drive to see decent ground coverage.  The Skyway is still looking like a good plan for the weekend.

 

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
218 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL FOR OCTOBER AT NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE...

RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT HAS TOTALED 8.41
INCHES WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 8.35 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1919.

RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH AT CROSSVILLE HAS TOTALED 8.82 INCHES
WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 7.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1981.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAINFALL ON HALLOWEEN AND EVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MEASURABLE SNOW HAS FALLEN ONLY TWICE AT NASHVILLE IN THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER. ON THIS DATE IN 1925...NASHVILLE MEASURED ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS THE LARGEST SNOWFALL IN OCTOBER AT NASHVILLE.
ALSO...ON THIS DATE IN 1993 NASHVILLE HAD A TRACE OF SNOW. SNOW
HAS FALLEN ONLY TWICE ON HALLOWEEN IN NASHVILLE. THE FIRST WAS IN
1931 WHEN A TRACE WAS MEASURED...AND THE SECOND TIME WAS IN 1993
WHEN 0.4 INCH OF SNOW FELL ON HALLOWEEN.

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David Aldrich is really up selling this. He had trace - 2 inches in the Central Valley, 2-4 from Campbell Co East to the Tri Cities and SW VA, 1-3+ on the Plateau and 5-14" above 2500 feet in all those areas. I think he's too aggressive but MRX talking about the upper low tracking directly across East Tennessee and the fact that it's coming between 11 pm and 6 am may allow for accumulations at lower elevations. Apparently the snowfall rates are going to be very strong where it's falling.

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