Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Another negative AO plunge is in the works. You can thank recurving Vongfong in the WPAC for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 Another negative AO plunge is in the works. You can thank recurving Vongfong in the WPAC for that. Yeah,looks like a chance of some severe weather again around the 20-21st maybe.850 anomolies on this afternoons Euro show below normal for the whole Valley through the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 We was .10 below our yearly average for rain fall around Nashville,before this last bout of storms.We did rather well here around Nashville to put us above average for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 Nothing much to discuss here is there?Looks dry and below normal temps the next 7 days basically based on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 AO and NAO are going positive in the medium to long range. PNA is going negative. All signs point to a rather tranquil pattern for the SE and also no big cool downs. Biggest cool down looks like day 10 on the Euro and even farther out on the GFS. Could even see some above average temps in the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Looks like another decent weekend coming up with some temps running well above norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Been brisk today, mid 50s, in the 40s all day just over the border in Kentucky where it's been cloudy. Not sure why I'm under a frost advisory tonight, had a killing frost on October the 5th that was widespread in Campbell County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Should be beautiful weather this upcoming weekend and into early next week. I selfishly hope the front and showers hold off for Wednesday next week as we are having trunk or treat at our church.I have noticed in the last couple of weeks, our overnight lows have busted several times too low. Cloud cover kept temps up two of the times, but just thought it was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Per the 0z Euro."Fantasy Snow Season" starts early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 Per the 0z Euro."Fantasy Snow Season" starts early. Saw this also.Gotta love though how its almost in mid range.I think you guys on the east side are gonna have a sweet winter in the higher elev,good luck !! Do we need to start a Nov thread or do you guys just want me to add Nov to this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I always love it when Fantasy storm season begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 For what it's worth, the GFS also has flakes in the air around November the 1st in Eastern TN, and a good portion of Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 From MRX. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FORWEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVEACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWFAGREE WITH BRINGING IN A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR FRIDAYAFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAYTHROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.TEMPERATURE PROFILE BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 While the extreme solution the Euro showed for a few runs will not have a chance of happening, the first flakes of the season look likely for the higher elevations. The GFS has slowly been trending a little bit deeper and further west with the energy coming from Canada. The NAM is just now coming into range and it is slightly sharper than the GFS. I think that the higher elevations could see a couple of inches of upslope snow. If enough moisture can hang around then maybe the valleys from Knoxville northward can see some flakes. It is going to be a quick but impressive cold front for Halloween! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 After this quick Halloween cold front things should be moderating again. The first week or two of November should be above average with the NAO/AO going positive and the PNA going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 GFS still showing flakes possible for most of the Plateau and Northern Valley areas of East TN, SW VA and SE Kentucky Friday night behind the cold front. My highs are now predicted to be in the 40s on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's sure going to be cold this weekend. Saturday, I bet most of east TN sees temps hovering in the low to mid 40's with wind. Definitely going to be a shock to the system as we close out October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Split flow pattern coming up as we get into late next week. Should prevent any significant cold shots after this weekend's. CPC agrees it could be quite warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The Euro phased the system again on last nights 0z run. Not a major cutoff but a phased system. The GFS was still similar to earlier runs with more progressive look. Euro: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z GFS rolled in with some major changes and it has trended toward the Euro. The GFS actually has a cutoff over North Carolina this run. Major improvements with regards to backside moisture. 0z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z GFS rolled in with some major changes and it has trended toward the Euro. The GFS actually has a cutoff over North Carolina this run. Major improvements with regards to backside moisture.0z:ImageUploadedByTapatalk1414520450.287317.jpg12z:ImageUploadedByTapatalk1414520510.006233.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 AccuWeather.com® Professional Forecast Model Text Information.png Thanks for that. So 850 temps look supportive for snow but surface temps are too warm until the very end. Mountains should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Think it might be time to start a thread for a Halloween masher in the mountains. Cut-off looks like it means business. The door on late summer is about to be slammed. Temps will moderate...but summer hits the road on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Since we only have 3 pages right now, i added Nov. to the Oct pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 MRX really stepped up their forecast for snow. I'm up to a 60 percent chance Friday night and Saturday. The mountains should indeed get a few inches. Hopefully it's as potent as the Halloween of 1993 storm that gave me 3 inches but I can't imagine it'll be that great. MRX did say that most of East Tennessee and SW VA would see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 MRX really stepped up their forecast for snow. I'm up to a 60 percent chance Friday night and Saturday. The mountains should indeed get a few inches. Hopefully it's as potent as the Halloween of 1993 storm that gave me 3 inches but I can't imagine it'll be that great. MRX did say that most of East Tennessee and SW VA would see snow. 0Z GFS now has TRI at .37 QPF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's putting down 1-3 inches of snowfall on the Northern Plateau and Northern Valley, up to an inch in the Central valley and 3-6 in the mountains. That is snow fall keep in mind, not snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's putting down 1-3 inches of snowfall on the Northern Plateau and Northern Valley, up to an inch in the Central valley and 3-6 in the mountains. That is snow fall keep in mind, not snow depth. Agreed. I think accumulations if any will be lower in the valley due to soil temps, but significant (up to 6") in the mountains due to persistent moisture and good 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GFS and NAM deliver warning level snows to the mountains. Euro, not so much. MRX mentions light accumulations could happen in the valley areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GFS and NAM deliver warning level snows to the mountains. Euro, not so much. MRX mentions light accumulations could happen in the valley areas. I think the Euro isn't that good at handling localized NW Flow events, so I wouldn't rule out 3-6" snowfall accumulation along the AT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.