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Oct.-Nov Pattern Discussion


jaxjagman

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Regarding thunderstorms later this week:

GFS tonight is showing some 40-45 kt wind shear,for the western to middle Valley next Friday.Sure this will change again and again

The GFS slowed down even more, which is good if one is hoping for strong storms. Gives moisture more time and also improves tilt of the system. GFS has storms west of Mississippi River Thursday (flat Delta included) and eastern Valley Friday. Euro is keeping faster, but did slow ever so slightly last run. Euro is still Mid South Thursday (mixed terrain) and Carolina crap out Friday. Not too excited, but in fall hope springs eternal for an encore - spring pun intended!

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00Z GFS was even colder. Widespread 30s from Nashville to Northern Alabama, Georgia and points North by Sunday morning.

The weather this weekend is going to be amazing. Looking forward to upper 60s - 70 for highs on Saturday and Sunday and 40 - mid 40s for lows. After this week in the mid 80s it will feel downright cold outside. I CAN'T WAIT!!!!!!! You guys in the valley enjoy your first taste of 30s, it's possible down my way but I think it may take another front or two before I get them down here in the north metro of Atlanta.

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I think that most of everyone will have their 1st frost of the season with higher elevations getting a freeze. Severe weather is still looking like a possibility with capes around 1000 j/kg, LI's around 2-3, and reasonable shear. The threat isn't high but it is there for some stronger storms.

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0C on the 850's are all the way down to the AL/GA/NC line on both the Euro and GFS.It will be interesting to see how cold it gets like mentioned by everyone above.

 

I'm guessing mid 30s for the valley, mid 20s above 5000 ft, and I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches 20F on Mt. Leconte.

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Boy if these teleconnections were happening in winter we would be drooling! The NAO is set to go negative, the PNA is set to go positive, and the AO is set to go wildly negative! Look at these maps.

post-6441-141225568867.jpg

post-6441-141225570775.jpg

post-6441-14122557265.jpg

This will be a fun month to watch as there should be some impressive troughs coming through with shots of cold air starting this weekend. I think it is likely in the later part of the month that the mountains see their first snow.

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^^^ That should bring a pretty good reinforcing shot next week, but models are trending more and more toward ridging in the SE and along the East Coast after about day 7.  Could have a warm spell somewhere in mid-October.  Perhaps an Indian summer type set up?

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I'm starting to wonder by looking at the teleconnections,towards the mid of the month if we could have a decent severe chance.The GFS has been showing this the last few runs and todays Euro now is also showing it as it's in it's range.The trough axis is setting up in the plains and moving towards the Apps.Long ways off though right now.

 

Edit:Both the GFS Euro are showing some 55+ wind shear in the Valley

 

 

 

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2014

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN AR ACROSS TN ...NRN
   MS...AND SRN KY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN
   ARKANSAS INTO TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

   AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
   IS FORECAST TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY
   WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM OK INTO AR AND ACROSS WRN TN AND
   KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
   HELP TRANSPORT 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD BENEATH COOLING TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR FOR
   SEVERE STORMS GIVEN UPWARD FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

   ...AR...NRN MS...TN...SRN KY...
   A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND BACK DURING THE DAY WHICH
   WILL AID IN A NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE TOWARD THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN E-W ORIENTED ZONE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT.
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR
   SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A FEW BOWS COULD ALSO DEVELOP WHICH
   WOULD TRAVEL ESEWD OVERNIGHT INTO NRN MS AND PERHAPS AL.

   THE NAM SOLUTION INDICATES THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND
   SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
   HAIL...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PRECISE LOCATION
   OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2014

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TN...FAR ERN
   AR...NRN MS AND AL...EXTREME SRN KY...MO BOOTHEEL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN
   ARKANSAS INTO TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
   WILL DIVE SEWD INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE DAY WITH
   SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES. IN THE LOW
   LEVELS...SWLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER THETA-E AIR NEWD FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH A NARROW ZONE OF MID 50S
   DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS SRN KY BY 00Z. WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE LIFT VIA DEEP-LAYER DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND MINIMAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD YIELD A ZONE OF SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY
   FROM THE MS RIVER NEWD ACROSS TN AND POSSIBLY NRN MS/AL DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   OTHER WEAKER STORMS ARE EXPECTED NWD ACROSS OH AS WELL WHERE MAINLY
   SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...ERN AR...NRN MS AND AL...MUCH OF TN...EXTREME SRN KY...
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO
   HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND COOLING ALOFT.
   MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN NEARLY GONE BY 18Z FROM WRN KY/TN
   WWD ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE TIMED
   AROUND 21Z...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS MOST
   LIKELY CENTERED ACROSS TN. THE NAM SOLUTION IS THE NRN-MOST IN TERMS
   OF QPF AXIS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S INTO SRN TN/NRN MS AND
   AL.

   WHILE PRECISE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST THREAT MAY BE IN QUESTION...STORM
   MODE SHOULD BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY SUPERCELLULAR WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS
   AND SUFFICIENT SRH IN THE LOWEST FEW KM. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
   FAVOR LARGE HAIL...WITH SIG HAIL THREAT DEPENDENT MAINLY ON
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE.

   WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT WOULD
   APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CELLS TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE TORNADO
   THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND HEAVILY ON ACTUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   CONTENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE...WEAK SURFACE
   PATTERN AND MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH MAIN QPF CORRIDOR...WILL DEFER
   ANY UPGRADES TO 30 PERCENT AND/OR SIG HAIL TO LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE
   CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2014

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
   VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN
   ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN
   KENTUCKY. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN
   TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

   ...MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/SRN OH VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AS
   THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AT
   THE SFC...A TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS ON
   MONDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SFC
   TROUGH...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
   AR ENEWD INTO WRN TN AND WRN KY. THIS IS WHERE SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL STORM
   CLUSTERS ORGANIZING AND MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z/MONDAY FOR
   MEMPHIS TN AND PADUCAH KY SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
   SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME VEERING OF
   THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
   TO A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITIES OF 25O TO 300 M2/S2 MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT
   WITH THE MOST DOMINATE CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ERN AR...NRN MS AND WRN TN WHERE
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE
   COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE EAST. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP AS CELLS ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES BY EARLY MONDAY
   EVENING.

   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP WWD INTO THE ARKLATEX
   LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE MORE
   CONDITIONAL AND MAY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING DUE TO A
   CAPPING INVERSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

   ..BROYLES.. 10/05/2014

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SPC has expanded the 15% area to include most of the valley.

post-6441-141258546692.jpg

Discussion:

SPC AC 060603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0103 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH/TN AND

LOWER MS VALLEYS WWD TO PORTIONS OF ERN OK...

...SUMMARY...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS

PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS

CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO

WESTERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE

STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL

AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

...MID-SOUTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS /TODAY INTO THE EVENING/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GENERALLY SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE

FROM THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THIS FORECAST

PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARIES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO

SOUTHWEST. THESE BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE ATTENDANT TO A PAIR OF

PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL IMPULSES...1/ MOVING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND 2/ TRACKING SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN

VALLEYS BY 07/00Z. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD

BE ONGOING AT 12Z FROM PARTS OF AR/MID-SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.

CORRIDORS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ATTENDANT TO THE EARLY PERIOD

CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FOCI AND/OR SURFACE BOUNDARY

RE-ENFORCEMENT FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY

EVENING.

WSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS TN/KY TO THE

UPPER OH VALLEY...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED DURING THE

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING

SECOND SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP

700-500 MB LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS

NEWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE

UP TO 2000-2500 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND

MID-SOUTH...WITH MUCAPE UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG EXTENDING NEWD INTO

WRN/MIDDLE TN AND WRN/NRN KY.

DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO INDIANA...OH...ERN KY TO

WRN WV...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS/SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO THE

AFTERNOON FROM KY INTO SRN OH/WV. MEANWHILE...NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT

IS EXPECTED BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO WRN

TN/ERN AR WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. IN THIS

PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50

KT WITH VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL

SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO

THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE

MOVING RELATIVELY FAST...GIVEN FORECAST STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE

EAST-NORTHEAST AT 40 KT.

FARTHER N...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF

ORGANIZED STORMS INTO INDIANA AND OHIO...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY

SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING

ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX AND SRN AR AT 12Z. STRONG INSTABILITY AND

STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUGGESTS STRONG TO

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

...ERN OK/NERN TX TO NRN LA/WRN MS /LATE AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT/...

MODELS SUGGEST A SWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO

THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL TX TO ERN OK/AR/NRN LA WITH TSTMS

DEVELOPING BY EARLY EVENING. IF STORMS CAN FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON

OVER PORTIONS OF ERN OK...THEY WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO BE

SURFACE BASED WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE TORNADO

THREAT MAY BE LOW. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE FROM THE

ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF A NRN

BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z

TUESDAY. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVER SERN OK/NERN TX TO MS SHOULD

SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND STRONG

WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS AFTER DARK.

..PETERS/MOSIER.. 10/06/2014

I could see this being a sneaky event and catch some people off guard.

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Probably some huge hail in the cell in NW GA right now. 73+ dbz right now. I've had hail at the house twice today already, and we are rocking and rolling again right now. I don't know how much it has rained. I have a digital gauge that I haven't set up at my new house since I moved last year. 

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Probably some huge hail in the cell in NW GA right now. 73+ dbz right now. I've had hail at the house twice today already, and we are rocking and rolling again right now. I don't know how much it has rained. I have a digital gauge that I haven't set up at my new house since I moved last year.

That cell is rotating now. Very interesting October day.

post-6441-14126426272.jpg

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